KCup17 said:

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Lived here my whole life. Club coach growing up was from Newcastle so I took an affinity to them. Started following every game the year after they got relegated back in 2016. Watched them win promotion back into the prem. Been a Geordie ever since.

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I'm just messing with you. I wish i could adopt teams.

🚨🏆 Thoughts on Champions League draw? pic.twitter.com/NjTTJ2uzWA

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) December 18, 2023

Serie A got screwed! Barca, Bayern and Atletico Madrid??? I guess they didnt' want Real and ManCity to get tough opponents?

BVB PSV will be fun to watch.

There are literally no compelling matchups in that draw. It's almost like they tried to avoid any draw that would pit two top teams playing each other. I can't imagine how they did that.

Napoli vs Barca and Inter vs Atletico are pretty much the most compelling initial round matches

akm91 said:

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Napoli vs Barca and Inter vs Atletico are pretty much the most compelling initial round matches

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Those are great matchups.

IMO there's really only three disappointing draws: 1) PSG drawing the weakest group winner, 2) City drawing the weakest team left in the field (on paper anyways - those guys didn't play scared against Bayern), and 3) Bayern drawing 11th in Serie A Lazio.

Dortmund could easily get beat by PSV. They're so inconsistent and deservedly in 5th in Bundesliga right now. In fact, I'll go ahead and predict this upset happens.

I think Porto is capable of upsetting Arsenal if for no other reason than that Arsenal seems pretty inconsistent at times, too.

And believe it or not - Leipzig vs. Madrid went 3-2; 0-2 in their matchups in last years group stage, so that's not necessarily the cakewalk people think it'll be… if those same results happened, it'd at least be entertaining, if not predictable.

deadbq03 said:

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akm91 said:

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Napoli vs Barca and Inter vs Atletico are pretty much the most compelling initial round matches

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Those are great matchups.

IMO there's really only three disappointing draws: 1) PSG drawing the weakest group winner, 2) City drawing the weakest team left in the field (on paper anyways - those guys didn't play scared against Bayern), and 3) Bayern drawing 11th in Serie A Lazio.

Dortmund could easily get beat by PSV. They're so inconsistent and deservedly in 5th in Bundesliga right now. In fact, I'll go ahead and predict this upset happens.

I think Porto is capable of upsetting Arsenal if for no other reason than that Arsenal seems pretty inconsistent at times, too.

And believe it or not - Leipzig vs. Madrid went 3-2; 0-2 in their matchups in last years group stage, so that's not necessarily the cakewalk people think it'll be… if those same results happened, it'd at least be entertaining, if not predictable.

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Madrid just lost center back number two to an acl tear this weekend and are still missing our number one keeper. We're pretty weak down the middle. Unless militao makes a miraculous recovery, we'll have a backup CB or CDM paired with Rudiger and back up or makeshift left and right backs due to health.

Madrids defense gave up 7 goals in six games in the CL compared to 11 in 17 in Liga. I think RB has a great shot to advance

Don't get my hopes up!

If all goes well, Leipzig will have a couple key guys return from long injury absences, including Spanish international Dani Olmo. Still a big talent and experience gap though, so I'm fully expecting a hard-fought loss.

PSG also looked terrible for large chunks of time during the group stages.

These measures are far from perfect, but I'm a giant nerd... so for grins, the matchups look like this on paper...

Transfermarkt worldwide club player valuation:

#36 Porto vs. #2 Arsenal
#13 Napoli vs. #8 Barcelona
#3 PSG vs. #22 Real Sociedad
#14 Inter Milan vs. #19 Atletico Madrid
#37 PSV vs. #21 Dortmund
#39 Lazio vs. #6 Bayern
<#100 Copenhagen vs. #1 Manchester City*
#17 Leipzig vs. #4 Real Madrid

* Transfermarkt's list is just a Top 100, but they still do valuations for teams outside that list... for perspective, Copenhagen's total player valuation is a mere 66M Euro (#100 on the list is worth 106M Euro). Man City's players are worth 1.3 Billion Euro, and there are 8 players on their squad who are individually worth more than the entire Copenhagen squad. This a David-Goliath of immense proportions for a knockout game.

UEFA Club Coefficient:

#19 Porto vs. #21 Arsenal
#17 Napoli vs. #12 Barcelona
#4 PSG vs. #38 Real Sociedad
#6 Inter Milan vs. #13 Atletico Madrid
#31 PSV vs. #11 Dortmund
#35 Lazio vs. #2 Bayern
#37 Copenhagen vs. #1 Manchester City
#7 Leipzig vs. #3 Real Madrid

On second thought, maybe Mathguy was right and these matchups are pretty bad on the whole.

deadbq03 said:

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On second thought, maybe Mathguy was right and these matchups are pretty bad on the whole.

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It's amazing that all of the big names avoided each other. It's almost like they were grabbing one hot ball and one cold ball. Almost.

deadbq03 said:

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These measures are far from perfect, but I'm a giant nerd... so for grins, the matchups look like this on paper...

Transfermarkt worldwide club player valuation:

#36 Porto vs. #2 Arsenal
#13 Napoli vs. #8 Barcelona
#3 PSG vs. #22 Real Sociedad
#14 Inter Milan vs. #19 Atletico Madrid
#37 PSV vs. #21 Dortmund
#39 Lazio vs. #6 Bayern
<#100 Copenhagen vs. #1 Manchester City*
#17 Leipzig vs. #4 Real Madrid

* Transfermarkt's list is just a Top 100, but they still do valuations for teams outside that list... for perspective, Copenhagen's total player valuation is a mere 66M Euro (#100 on the list is worth 106M Euro). Man City's players are worth 1.3 Billion Euro, and there are 8 players on their squad who are individually worth more than the entire Copenhagen squad. This a David-Goliath of immense proportions for a knockout game.

UEFA Club Coefficient:

#19 Porto vs. #21 Arsenal
#17 Napoli vs. #12 Barcelona
#4 PSG vs. #38 Real Sociedad
#6 Inter Milan vs. #13 Atletico Madrid
#31 PSV vs. #11 Dortmund
#35 Lazio vs. #2 Bayern
#37 Copenhagen vs. #1 Manchester City
#7 Leipzig vs. #3 Real Madrid

On second thought, maybe Mathguy was right and these matchups are pretty bad on the whole.

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Hopefully good upsets!

With the way the groups finished, I'm not sure how interesting it was going to be. PSG was a big name that avoided another but otherwise…

Yeah… to me it's not so much about the draw itself but the lack of quality in the 16 at the bottom end.

The big factor this year is that 2 of the 4 EPL teams got bounced. Or putting it another way… 2 of the current EPL top 4 weren't in the competition at all.

Swap out Copenhagen for [insert your EPL team of choice] as a group runner-up and that's gonna generate another good matchup.

Same could be said for Serie A being represented here by Lazio courtesy of a cakewalk group, while Milan couldn't escape the group of death. (And of course Juve isn't here at all).

Or similarly, there are years where all four Bundesliga teams advance but Union Berlin are atrocious this year and will be fighting in the spring to avoid relegation.

Sevilla are bad this year too - they were handed a pretty easy group and should be here if they resembled their teams of recent past at all.

Ok we're back in action - although today's slate of games are lopsided with heavy favorites in every match. For neutrals out there, if you can only afford to slack at work for one afternoon this week, you ought to work today and watch tomorrow.

As for me, I'll be slacking at work both days and hoping for good matches. Someone has to get a surprise result today, right?


Edit… oops I thought there were 4 games today and 4 tomorrow. Forget what I said about tomorrow, this whole week sucks, but I'll hold onto hope that there will be a surprise or two.

Lazio vs Bayern tomorrow, on paper, is the most competitive match for this week.

RM has three injured center backs and is starting a CDM back there. Also playing backup GK and Bellingham is injured. I think it will be more intriguing than what we see on paper.

Maybe so, but Leipzig's form since the winter break is atrocious. They don't know how to score.

deadbq03 said:

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Maybe so, but Leipzig's form since the winter break is atrocious. They don't know how to score.

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Thanks be to God.

Feel free to double check my math, but I think the entire roster for FC Copenhagen makes less per week than KDB. (~307k to 400k pounds/week)

The disparity in finances between the top and bottom in UEFA competitions is extreme and IMO we need something different. I don't mean Super League (or most certainly not the way the Spanish clubs want such a thing to look).

She's been typing for the past 5 minutes, am I in trouble? pic.twitter.com/7tUT7EDez5

— Troll Football (@TrollFootball) February 14, 2024

Wow! Lazio with a golden opportunity to build a lead here.

Upamecano with a straight red. Late challenge in the box after shot taken with studs directly on shin. Gave up a penalty and got sent off to boot.

they really need to capitalize and score at least 1 more.

To their credit, Bayern are playing with some intensity now.

17 shots and 0 on goal? Can we get a wellness check on Harry Kane?

they did not take advantage of the 10 man Bayern.

Nerd alert here. I've been unable to find a site that tracks how many possible UEFA coefficient points each association has based on teams left in competitions. With the draws made for the Europa and Conference League knockout rounds, I decided to tabulate it myself. Hey, it's Friday, and I ain't go **** to do.

For those unaware - the single-season coefficient from this year will determine which countries get 2 extra Champions League places next year. The current coefficients for this year are:

https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/country/seasons/#/yr/2024

Assumptions in this best case scenario: 1) no countries' teams will draw each other until semifinals (if 3+ teams left) or finals (2 teams left); 2) teams that advance will do so by winning both legs of a round. The results...

Best Possible Outcomes:
1) Italy - 28.86
2) England and Czechia tied at 24.5
4) Germany - 24.21
5) France - 21.08
6) Spain - 20.81

For reference, Spain's total above would've been more than enough to earn a #2 spot in 3 out of the last 4 seasons, so everyone listed above is most certainly still in the hunt.

With all 7 of their original teams remaining, it's no surprise that Italy have a commanding lead. Big surprise is Czechia. They'll likely be out of contention after getting thumped by Liverpool and Milan in the next EL round, but hey, it's fun to dream.

Format has officially been announced for next year. No more Group Stages. It's all designed as a league now. 8 games against opponents to determine league place.

An exciting new era for European club football awaits 🤩

Here’s how the #UCL will look from 2024/25 👇 pic.twitter.com/mEffFOpX2O

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) March 4, 2024

I'm sure plenty of folks won't like it, but having seen it already in Football Manager - I think it's a very fun way to do it.

T&Ps for English teams and their 2 domestic cups though.

In today's matches Bayern looks to be pulling away from Lazio and PSG comfortably ahead of Real Sociedad.

Kane is just a force for Bayern this season.

Kane with another.

Not gonna lie, it would be funny if Bayern win this trophy with a lame duck coach.

By no means what I'm rooting for, but it would be funny. And I'm sure Kane wouldn't mind at all.