According to this site… LOL

https://theanalyst.com/articles/cfp-predictions-2025-college-football-playoff-picks-odds

No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1)

Aggies' Opening Game: vs. No. 10 Miami, Dec. 20.

How Many Games Can They Win? Four.

Why? It's a bit of a stretch to imagine the Aggies winning the national championship, but I think they're well-rounded enough not to dismiss out of hand.

The defensive front is one of the best in the country, anchored by edge Cassius Howell (20.4% pressure rate) and with an elite pair of inside linebackers, Tauren York and Daymion Sanford (a combined 31 run stuffs), behind him.

Quarterback Marcel Reed has accuracy issues to the tune of a below-average 73.8% well-thrown rate, but he can be electric as both a thrower and a runner, and he's done a fine job avoiding sacks (a 2.9% sack rate overall, with above-average avoidance when pressured).

Receivers Mario Craver and KC Concepcion are really good.

There's a clear potential weakness in the form of an 8.9% explosive play rate allowed, one of the worst in the Power Four. But it doesn't require a miracle for A&M to go on a big run.

The Opta Supercomputer Says:

Opening Game Win Probability: 31.0%
Probability of Reaching the Semis: 1.8%
Probability of Reaching the Final: 0.7%
Probability of Winning the Title: 0.1%

gif/So you're saying there's a chance…

So their "analysis" is we have a .1% chance of winning the whole thing.

Of ten actually competitive teams in the field, they think we win one in a thousand tries.

Good thing we're playing this on the field rather than in these geniuses heads.

Our last game had so much riding on it.

Kyle Field will need to be the great equalizer, too bad its at 11am

Largest road Crowd for Miami this year was 65k

NeverSeenEmWin said:

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So their "analysis" is we have a .1% chance of winning the whole thing.

Of ten actually competitive teams in the field, they think we win one in a thousand tries.

Good thing we're playing this on the field rather than in these geniuses heads.

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worst odds in the field, JMU and Tulane not with standing

Not a surprise given Miami would be favored over OU, Bama, and ole miss.

We got a tough draw. But 31%? Come on man.

We could try winning important games…especially in our drool-producing chief rivalry series…

Bag said:

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Kyle Field will need to be the great equalizer, too bad its at 11am

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Miami already lost in the road in Texas earlier this year at 11 am.

And Kyle will have no problem finding energy for a playoff game.

Start drinking early ags

The way the bracket is set up if we make it to the finals our win percentage chances would be much higher. Our side of the bracket is a gauntlet. If we survive I like our chances in the final.

does make you wonder why we are favored

Bag said:

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does make you wonder why we are favored

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As Coach Corso used to say: "Somebody knows something I don't know"...

Bag said:

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does make you wonder why we are favored

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Because we are at home.

Regardless if you think we should be favored, a 31% chance of winning is ridiculously low and shows a poor understanding of statistics. It's worse odds than a suited 82 beating suited AK.

greg.w.h said:

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We could try winning important games…especially in our drool-producing chief rivalry series…

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Yawn. Your shtick is getting old. Yeah, its disappointing the Ags lost to tu, but to pretend that was the only important game this year is laughable. Beating ND at their place wasn't important, especially since A&M hadn't beaten a top 10 team on the road in how long? Destroying LSU at night in their place definitely wasn't important. Ags weren't 11-0 since 92. Definitely not important. Ridiculous.

ArkyAg99 said:

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greg.w.h said:

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We could try winning important games…especially in our drool-producing chief rivalry series…

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Yawn. Your shtick is getting old. Yeah, it's disappointing the Ags lost to tu, but to pretend that was the only important game this year is laughable. Beating ND at their place wasn't important, especially since A&M hadn't beaten a top 10 team on the road in how long? Destroying LSU at night in their place definitely wasn't important. Ags weren't 11-0 since 92. Definitely not important. Ridiculous.

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I'm not the one pretending it was an important game…

Bag said:

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Kyle Field will need to be the great equalizer, too bad its at 11am

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What happens to a&m at 11am?

Bag said:

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Kyle Field will need to be the great equalizer, too bad its at 11am

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Go do your part and quit complaining

we all know Spreadsheet Ag is the most accurate.

Look, this is the same slot Michigan plays Ohio State every year. The time slot should not matter. A&M had 106K there even for the Samford game. I expect a tremendous turnout.

mdruppe said:

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According to this site… LOL

https://theanalyst.com/articles/cfp-predictions-2025-college-football-playoff-picks-odds

No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1)

Aggies' Opening Game: vs. No. 10 Miami, Dec. 20.

How Many Games Can They Win? Four.

Why? It's a bit of a stretch to imagine the Aggies winning the national championship, but I think they're well-rounded enough not to dismiss out of hand.

The defensive front is one of the best in the country, anchored by edge Cassius Howell (20.4% pressure rate) and with an elite pair of inside linebackers, Tauren York and Daymion Sanford (a combined 31 run stuffs), behind him.

Quarterback Marcel Reed has accuracy issues to the tune of a below-average 73.8% well-thrown rate, but he can be electric as both a thrower and a runner, and he's done a fine job avoiding sacks (a 2.9% sack rate overall, with above-average avoidance when pressured).

Receivers Mario Craver and KC Concepcion are really good.

There's a clear potential weakness in the form of an 8.9% explosive play rate allowed, one of the worst in the Power Four. But it doesn't require a miracle for A&M to go on a big run.

The Opta Supercomputer Says:

Opening Game Win Probability: 31.0%
Probability of Reaching the Semis: 1.8%
Probability of Reaching the Final: 0.7%
Probability of Winning the Title: 0.1%

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If I am mathing correctly, they are saying

31% to beat Miami
<6% chance to beat osu?


Not saying we win either, but come on guys, just not credible. And if they are the oddsmakers, give me the money line.

I don't think we are going to win.

Some of that is BAS, but some is how we looked to end the season, and frankly even how we looked beating mostly bad teams throughout the season.

We are a tough defense first team that needs to control the tempo and not turn the ball over. We could grind out a 28-24 win or get run off the field by an explosive team.

Hopefully we show up with the size and athletic advantages that I remember from when we were in the Big12 and would get mauled in bowls by SEC teams

I could believe 45% but not 31%

All depends on what sort of mindset we play with. In our flow, we beat them and it gives us confidence to tangle with OSU in the Cotton Bowl.

Playing a patsy doesn't really help us get right mentally for OSU or any other real contender. For once, I'm good with a tough draw.

If this guy believed in his own analysis he'd mortgage his house and throw every cent he can scrape up on Miami.

Kalshi says 60%

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaafgame/college-football-game/kxncaafgame-25dec20miatxam

ESPN says 54%

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401779841/miami-texas-am

Vegas says -3.5

I'll take the picks from people putting money on the game over random rage bait.

BMX Bandit said:

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Not a surprise given Miami would be favored over OU, Bama, and ole miss.

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Would they really?

Plus Gameday will be there, which lowers the odds of a win LOL

mdruppe said:

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The Opta Supercomputer My Lotus 123 spreadsheet Says:

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Bag said:

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Kyle Field will need to be the great equalizer, too bad its at 11am

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Seen this thought too many times…

I truly believe that the 12th man can make this place a hellacious place at 11:00 in the morning.

I don't care what time we have to play, we're bringing the hate.

Ags by 17….

They wake up and play like we did against Missouri last year at home.

Miami is not that good… Cover 10 and stop the run.

Ags06Win said:

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Ags by 17….

They wake up and play like we did against Missouri last year at home.

Miami is not that good… Cover 10 and stop the run.

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I believe this can happen

The % chance to win is being overdone by sports entertainment sites.