SEC Round-Up: Margins are razor thin due to league's heightened parity
Question of the day: Will the Southeastern Conference have more teams in the College Football Playoff or more coaches fired?
It’s a tough call.
The SEC has six teams among the top 12 in the initial College Football rankings.
And going into this weekend, four SEC teams — Arkansas, Auburn, Florida and LSU — have fired their head coach.
Also, Mark Stoops, the coach of 3-5 Kentucky, should be looking over his shoulder, too.
At the very least, the SEC figures to get four teams into the 12-team playoff. Four coaches have already been fired. So maybe it’ll be a push.
Frankly, it’s the SEC’s success that has pushed coaches out of their jobs. Well, that’s the way Texas A&M coach Mike Elko, whose job is not in jeopardy, sees it.
“The parity in this conference is at an all-time high,” Elko said. “People are still looking for the days when the best team went out and won by 40 (points) every week. 12-0, 11-1 (records) were the standard of what was good.
“A lot of us as coaches have continued to try to preach it’s not the same feeling anymore. It doesn’t feel like that’s what’s really good. What’s really good is finding a way to win enough games to get yourself into the playoffs, where you have a chance to go make a run at this thing.
“I think that’s what modern college football is.”
Another element of modern football is paying coaches salaries of $7 million or more. In fact, 11 of the league’s 16 coaches earn at least that much. Elko reportedly has a base salary of $7 million. It could be more with incentives.
A raise is inevitable because, under Elko, the Aggies are unbeaten, ranked No. 3 and appear destined for the College Football Playoff.
But nothing is guaranteed. Too many games against too many good opponents remain.
Nine SEC teams are currently ranked among the top 25. Those teams will be involved in 19 conference games before the regular season ends. Six of those games will match teams that are ranked.
Expect close, hard-fought games. Why not? Even games against unranked SEC teams have been typically close, hard-fought contests.
Unranked Mississippi State took No. 25 Tennessee and No. 11 Texas into overtime. Unranked Kentucky took Texas into overtime, too.
Just last week, unranked Florida fell to No. 5 Georgia, 24-20. No. 4 Alabama had to rally to defeat unranked South Carolina, 29-22. A&M held off Arkansas, 45-42. Struggling Auburn took No. 22 Missouri into overtime.
“I think I read somewhere that there’s been something like 27 one-score games in the SEC this year,” Elko said. “More than we’ve had in a really long time.
“I think there were six games last week. Five of them came down to one-score games.”
Expect more close games as the SEC playoff push continues.
Getting five SEC teams in the playoffs is a real possibility. Getting five SEC coaches fired is, too.
Around the SEC
This week’s games: No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri; No. 5 Georgia at Mississippi State; The Citadel at No. 6 Ole Miss; Auburn at No. 16 Vanderbilt; LSU at No. 4 Alabama; Florida at Kentucky
Who’s hot: Auburn’s run defense. The Tigers as a whole are not good, but their run defense has been stellar. Auburn has held each of its past four opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards, as well as seven of its nine opponents overall (A&M ran for 207 against the Tigers, which is 28 percent of the rushing yards Auburn has allowed this season). The Tigers are allowing just 2.49 yards per attempt, which is tied for second in the SEC and tied for fourth nationally. LBs Xavier Atkins (from Houston Summer Creek) and Robert Woodyard Jr. have been an effective duo, and they will need to be on point Saturday when Auburn meets Vanderbilt.
Who’s not: Alabama’s running game is uncharacteristically lethargic. The Tide is averaging 118.8 yards per game to rank 114th in the nation in rushing offense. Alabama has rushed for 126 yards or less in each of the last three games. Alabama was held to 72 rushing yards vs. South Carolina in its most recent game. Alabama is averaging just 3.6 yards on 262 attempts. Jamarion Miller leads the Tide with 308 rushing yards. Alabama has had just six carries of 20 yards or more.
Keep an eye on: Amid all the turmoil of LSU’s season, the Tigers' secondary has played well. LSU is fifth in the SEC in pass defense. The Tigers spent a lot of money in the transfer portal on their secondary. It has paid off. LSU has more interceptions (10) than touchdown passes allowed (7). Opposing quarterbacks are completing fewer than 60 percent of their passes. For LSU to have a chance to upset Alabama, the LSU pass defense must contain quarterback Ty Simpson. Simpson has thrown for 2,194 yards, with 20 touchdown passes and one pick, and he is completing 67.8 percent of his passes. He also has rushed for two scores.
The pressure is on: Missouri’s running back Ahmad Hardy leads the SEC in rushing with 937 yards, but he has failed to reach the 100-yard mark in two of the last three games. Not coincidentally, the Tigers lost two of those games and went into overtime to defeat Auburn. Clearly, Hardy is the primary key to Mizzou’s success. Mizzou figures to be even more dependent on him vs. Texas A&M. Starting quarterback Beau Pribula is out. True freshman Matt Zollers is making his first career start. A&M has held four of five SEC opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards.
Best matchup: Mississippi State WRs Anthony Evans III and Brenen Thompson vs. Georgia’s secondary. Mississippi State’s receiving duo has combined for 93 receptions for 1,369 yards and 10 touchdowns, and Georgia’s secondary, specifically its corners, can be exploited. Both receivers are transfers (Thompson from Oklahoma, Evans from – what do you know? – Georgia) and Texas natives (Thompson from Spearman High, Evans from Converse Judson). Thompson has good speed and is one of the best deep threats in the league, averaging 17.5 yards per catch on his 41 receptions. Evans is a quick guy who can do some damage in tight spaces. Mississippi State’s porous defense has zero shot to slow Georgia’s offense, so State QB Blake Shapen (who began his career at Baylor) and his receivers need a monster game to keep this close.
