Looking at SEC teams with one loss or less in conference play, to see what the Aggies opportunities are for making it to Atlanta, I found something interesting. There are currently six teams with one loss or less in conference play:

* Texas A&M - 5-0 (8-0)
* Alabama - 5-0 (7-1)
* Georgia - 4-1 (6-1)
* Ole Miss - 4-1 (7-1)
* Vandy - 3-1 (7-1)
* tu - 3-1 (6-2)

If the Aggies lose a conference game, we are unlikely to go to Atlanta over another one loss team, because the win percentage of the teams we've played has been low. So one question is, how many one-loss teams above play each other where a team is guaranteed to get their second loss? It turns out there's only three games where these teams play each other to close the season, and tu is in all of them:

* Vandy @ tu
* tu @ Georgia
* A&M @ tu

So if tu loses out, there's a chance of having five teams in the SEC with one loss or less. Some of those teams will likely lose another game here or there. But there will probably be multiple one loss teams looking to get in that second Atlanta spot.

The Ags better keep things rolling and remain undefeated to claim their spot in Atlanta.

The league really worked hard to write a schedule that would maximize playoff spots

As long as we make the CFP then Atlanta really doesn't matter anymore ... and avoiding an extra game may have benefits health wise.

As much as the old man in me doesn't like it ... conference titles really don't matter anymore.

Mac94 said:

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As long as we make the CFP then Atlanta really doesn't matter anymore ... and avoiding an extra game may have benefits health wise.

As much as the old man in me doesn't like it ... conference titles really don't matter anymore.

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I disagree. The best path to the playoff is winning SECCG. Make it to Atlanta, and we're pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot, win or lose. Win, and we most likely get a top-4 seed and don't have to play the first round, thereby eliminating the extra game concern.

Don't make it to Atlanta, and the chances of getting a playoff spot would be significantly reduced I would think. And we'd definitely have to play the first round, so the extra game happens anyway.

If we go to Atlanta, we need to win.

ABattJudd said:

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Mac94 said:

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As long as we make the CFP then Atlanta really doesn't matter anymore ... and avoiding an extra game may have benefits health wise.

As much as the old man in me doesn't like it ... conference titles really don't matter anymore.

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I disagree. The best path to the playoff is winning SECCG. Make it to Atlanta, and we're pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot, win or lose. Win, and we most likely get a top-4 seed and don't have to play the first round, thereby eliminating the extra game concern.

Don't make it to Atlanta, and the chances of getting a playoff spot would be significantly reduced I would think. And we'd definitely have to play the first round, so the extra game happens anyway.

If we go to Atlanta, we need to win.

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I think he means 11-1 and avoid the SEC championship isn't so bad. Week of rest and host a first round game as a 5-6 seed. Might even stay in the top 4 depending on who the loss is to and how the loss played out.

Realistically 5 teams can get to7-1 or better
Vandy needs wins @ tu & @ UT
They have the hardest route to 7-1
Ags
UGa
Bama
Ole Miss
would have to lose game(s) they are favored to win

Dont lose. Dont make let that become part of the season's DNA.

ABattJudd said:

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Mac94 said:

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As long as we make the CFP then Atlanta really doesn't matter anymore ... and avoiding an extra game may have benefits health wise.

As much as the old man in me doesn't like it ... conference titles really don't matter anymore.

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I disagree. The best path to the playoff is winning SECCG. Make it to Atlanta, and we're pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot, win or lose. Win, and we most likely get a top-4 seed and don't have to play the first round, thereby eliminating the extra game concern.

Don't make it to Atlanta, and the chances of getting a playoff spot would be significantly reduced I would think. And we'd definitely have to play the first round, so the extra game happens anyway.

If we go to Atlanta, we need to win.

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The seeding this year is the best 4 teams so it won't be the same as last year.
That being said the teams with bye didn't win a game.
ASU lost to Texas
Uga lost to ND
Boise to PSU
Oregon to OSU.

Remaining in the schedule.

Vandy
-@ tu
-Auburn
-Kentucky
-@ UT

Alabama
-LSU
-Oklahoma
-Illinois
-@Auburn

Georgia
-Florida
-@Miss St
-tu
-Charlotte
-Georgia Tech

Ole MIss
-South Carolina
-Citadel
-Florida
-@Miss St

tu
-Vandy
-@Georgia
-Arkansas
-A&M

It looks every team has landmines. The season isn't over by a long shot and there's a couple of teams whose fortune will change if they beat one of the top tier teams in the league. i.e. Miss St, Auburn, Oklahoma, maybe even Arkansas

I think Alabama will finish an undefeated 8-0 SEC record. Hopefully, we can finish with an undefeated 8-0 SEC record to play in the SEC Championship Game for the first time ever. I would love for us to finish 12-0 in the regular season and beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game to become a 13-0 SEC Champion and get the No. 1 seed.

I think our floor is 10-2 because we should be huge home favorites against South Carolina and Samford. Hopefully, we can win at least one of the November road games against Missouri and Texas for an 11-1 (7-1 SEC) finish, which will likely give us a home field advantage in the first round.

Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss appear to be locks for the playoffs, and the winner of the Vanderbilt vs Tennessee game is a likely lock. Vanderbilt has a road game at Texas, and Tennessee has a road game at Florida, where they haven't won since 2003. There is a good chance that Vanderbilt and Tennessee both have 9-2 records before playing each other in a CFP play-in game on 11/29.

Mac94 said:

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As long as we make the CFP then Atlanta really doesn't matter anymore ... and avoiding an extra game may have benefits health wise.

As much as the old man in me doesn't like it ... conference titles really don't matter anymore.

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Making the CFP is easier than making it to Atlanta. So dammit, I want to make it to Atlanta.

Ags haven't made it to Atlanta yet and I'll be damned if those t-sips win an SEC championship before we do.

I just found a CBS article that maps out 2025 SEC Championship Game scenarios:

Texas A&M (8-0, 5-0)
Clearest path: Wins over Beau Pribula-less Missouri, South Carolina and Texas get the Aggies to Atlanta and likely a first-round bye in the playoff. Texas A&M's humming through nine weeks and is coming off its biggest SEC win in Baton Rouge after humiliating LSU. The Aggies' toughest conference win up to this point was a 16-10 victory against Auburn at home on Sept. 27.

Chaos scenario: Coming out of this week's open date, Texas A&M's trip to Missouri could get tricky if the Tigers are able to half Marcel Reed's progress in the Heisman picture and stun the Aggies. Keep an eye on the regular-season finale on Black Friday at Texas. That potentially sets up for a winner-take-all outcome like last season's tilt if the Longhorns beat Vanderbilt, Georgia and Arkansas over their next three games.

Tiebreaker talk: Texas A&M had the luxury this season of not having to play Alabama, Georgia, or Ole Miss in conference play, but the likelihood is high one of those fellow elites will be awaiting the Aggies in December. None of the five SEC teams Texas A&M has beaten up to this point has a winning record in conference play this season.

Texas (6-2, 3-1)
Clearest path: Like Vanderbilt, the Longhorns do not control their own destiny in getting to the SEC Championship Game. However, winning out virtually guarantees a playoff appearance for the third straight season under Steve Sarkisian. Even beating Texas A&M in the finale doesn't put the Longhorns in Atlanta since they don't own the tiebreaker with Ole Miss, who would also finish 7-1 in conference play.

Chaos scenario: No team -- outside of Oklahoma and Tennessee -- needs more chaos to unfold next month than Texas if the Longhorns want to battle for a conference title. In the event of a three-way tie for first at the end of the season with Alabama and Ole Miss at 7-1 overall, Texas would get the No. 1 seed over both based on record vs. common conference opponents all played one time (Longhorns would've have beaten Georgia, who took out Ole Miss and has a win over Oklahoma, who would need to upset the Crimson Tide on Nov. 15 ... out of breath yet?)

Tiebreaker talk: If Texas beats Vanderbilt and Georgia, and Texas A&M is upset before these two meet in Austin in late November, then the Longhorns would be playing for a berth in Atlanta. That would put Texas and Ole Miss in a two-way tie for second place behind Alabama, and the Longhorns get the nod since they would have a win over Georgia -- and the Rebels would not.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/sec-championship-game-2025-scenarios-contenders-alabama-georgia-texas-am/

There is a small chance that the Texas A&M vs Texas game could be a play-in game for the right to play Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. But I think it's more likely that we will be an undefeated 11-0 before playing Texas in Austin and Texas will lose one more game to Georgia for an 8-3 record.

Also, CBS' Brad Crawford predicts our first loss will be to Texas.

No. 3 Texas A&M
Toughest game left: at Texas, Nov. 28
Projected first loss: at Texas

This team is capable of running the table in the SEC and proved to numerous doubters over the weekend that they have what it takes to earn the league's top playoff seed as a conference champion. However, rivalry weekend could tip the scales in another direction against the Longhorns, especially if Texas is on the playoff bubble needing to impress. Marcel Reed deserves Heisman finalist buzz at quarterback, and if the dual-threat playmaker wins out from here, he might take it.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-undefeated-teams-first-loss-predictions-ohio-state-texas-am/

I seriously doubt tessus is going to beat Vandy and Georgia. Kentucky and MSU gave them all they could handle, and they still needed some help from the refs with MSU.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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I seriously doubt tessus is going to beat Vandy and Georgia. Kentucky and MSU gave them all they could handle, and they still needed some help from the refs with MSU.

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I completely agree with you. I understand that Texas had been away from Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium for 4 consecutive weeks, but they needed overtime to win road games at 2-5 (0-5 SEC) Kentucky and 4-4 (0-4 SEC) Mississippi State. In fact, Mississippi State led Texas 38-21 with 12:29 left before Texas scored 24 unanswered points for a 45-38 overtime win. I am not surprised that Texas is a 1.5-point home favorite over Vanderbilt in their first home game against a Power 4 opponent this season. Even if Texas wins a home game against Vanderbilt, they will not win a road game against Georgia.

I just happen to find the article that shows how Texas is still alive for the SEC Championship Game, but they would need to win out for that to happen. If Mississippi State had not blown a 17-point 4th quarter lead at home, Texas would have dropped to 5-3 and 2-2 in SEC games and been eliminated from the SEC Championship Game race.

Best scenerio is 11-1, finish 3rd in the SEC. 1st round playoff opponent will be an "easier" game than the SEC championship opponent. 4D chess.

This thread is more proof that conference championship games are dumb in this era of a 12 game playoff.

GrayMatter said:

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Remaining in the schedule.

Vandy
-@ tu- w
-Auburn- w
-Kentucky- w
-@ UT- l

Alabama
-LSU- w
-Oklahoma-w
-Illinois- w
-@Auburn- w

Georgia
-Florida- w
-@Miss St- w
-tu- w
-Charlotte- w
-Georgia Tech-w

Ole MIss
-South Carolina- w
-Citadel-w
-Florida- w
-@Miss St -w

tu
-Vandy- l
-@Georgia-l
-Arkansas - l
-A&M-l

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Predicting Texas will end the regular season on a 4 game losing streak.

Texas really should be 2-3

I still think they lose at least two more games.

annie88 said:

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Texas really should be 23

I still think they lose at least two more games.

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I agree with that. I think Georgia will have their number, and I think they lose at least one between us and Vandy. They still have Arkansas as well, and I'm sure Arkansas will play up for that game.

GrayMatter said:

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Remaining in the schedule.

Vandy
-@ tu
-Auburn
-Kentucky
-@ UT

Alabama
-LSU
-Oklahoma
-Illinois
-@Auburn

Georgia
-Florida
-@Miss St
-tu
-Charlotte
-Georgia Tech

Ole MIss
-South Carolina
-Citadel
-Florida
-@Miss St

tu
-Vandy
-@Georgia
-Arkansas
-A&M

It looks every team has landmines. The season isn't over by a long shot and there's a couple of teams whose fortune will change if they beat one of the top tier teams in the league. i.e. Miss St, Auburn, Oklahoma, maybe even Arkansas

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Ole Miss has it the easiest and should be home free, but they tend to lose a game they shouldn't

tu has the hardest schedule remaining and could lose all 4. I have my doubts that they can score with Arky when their offense is rolling. They'll be under dogs to the other 3.

Then Vandy.

About even for the rest.

Mac94 said:

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As long as we make the CFP then Atlanta really doesn't matter anymore ... and avoiding an extra game may have benefits health wise.

As much as the old man in me doesn't like it ... conference titles really don't matter anymore.

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Yep.

At this point there is a lot more risk of negative from playing in Atlanta than good of winning it.

More wear and tear and potential injuries. Less time to prepare for the playoffs. Losing definitely doesn't help in any way. Winning is great, but it really doesn't mean much.

Sips will have 2 more losses by the time we play them. We will run the table and be undefeated in Atlanta. No idea what happens afterwards

BarnacleBill said:

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Sips will have 2 more losses by the time we play them. We will run the table and be undefeated in Atlanta. No idea what happens afterwards

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So true. Tu is a really bad football team.

They'll lose 5 this season

GrayMatter said:

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Remaining in the schedule.

Vandy
-@ tu
-Auburn
-Kentucky
-@ UT

Alabama
-LSU
-Oklahoma
-Illinois
-@Auburn

Georgia
-Florida
-@Miss St
-tu
-Charlotte
-Georgia Tech

Ole MIss
-South Carolina
-Citadel
-Florida
-@Miss St

tu
-Vandy
-@Georgia
-Arkansas
-A&M

It looks every team has landmines. The season isn't over by a long shot and there's a couple of teams whose fortune will change if they beat one of the top tier teams in the league. i.e. Miss St, Auburn, Oklahoma, maybe even Arkansas

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This is helpful but Bama doesn't play Illinois (I wish) I think they play Eastern Illinois.

CCG's don't matter anymore. Get that into your head. They should all go away. All about the CFP's.

If Texas picks up a loss before their trip to Athens and Georgia hasn't lost again by then, there's an argument to cheer for the sips in that game.

phatty26 said:

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ABattJudd said:

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Mac94 said:

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As long as we make the CFP then Atlanta really doesn't matter anymore ... and avoiding an extra game may have benefits health wise.

As much as the old man in me doesn't like it ... conference titles really don't matter anymore.

---

I disagree. The best path to the playoff is winning SECCG. Make it to Atlanta, and we're pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot, win or lose. Win, and we most likely get a top-4 seed and don't have to play the first round, thereby eliminating the extra game concern.

Don't make it to Atlanta, and the chances of getting a playoff spot would be significantly reduced I would think. And we'd definitely have to play the first round, so the extra game happens anyway.

If we go to Atlanta, we need to win.

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The seeding this year is the best 4 teams so it won't be the same as last year.
That being said the teams with bye didn't win a game.
ASU lost to Texas
Uga lost to ND
Boise to PSU
Oregon to OSU.

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He realized the seeding is different. But the winner of the SEC is getting the bye unless they have 2 losses. You can guarantee that. 2nd place SEC might get a #3 or 4 seed and bye as well, but the winner is getting the bye for sure.

Thanks Debbie Downer

GrayMatter said:

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Remaining in the schedule.

Vandy 9-3 (5-3 SEC)
-@ tu: L
-Auburn: W
-Kentucky: W
-@ UT: L

Alabama 11-1 (7-1 SEC)
-LSU: W
-Oklahoma: W
-Eastern Illinois: W
-@Auburn: W

Georgia 11-1 (7-1 SEC)
-Florida: W
-@Miss St:
-tu: W
-Charlotte: W
-Georgia Tech: W

Ole Miss 11-1 (7-1 SEC)
-South Carolina: W
-Citadel: W
-Florida: W
-@Miss St: W

tu 8-4 (5-3 SEC)
-Vandy: W
-@Georgia: L
-Arkansas: W
-A&M: L

It looks every team has landmines. The season isn't over by a long shot and there's a couple of teams whose fortune will change if they beat one of the top tier teams in the league. i.e. Miss St, Auburn, Oklahoma, maybe even Arkansas

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Alabama and Texas A&M will finish an undefeated 8-0 SEC record. Georgia and Ole Miss will win out to finish with a 7-1 SEC record. The loser of the Vanderbilt vs Texas game will have a 2nd SEC loss and be eliminated from the SEC Championship race.

We can drop a game, and probably will. This board will lose its mind and be calling for Miles again, and firing Klein. All that matters is playoffs. Atlanta, who cares.

There are specific tie breakers to decide who goes.
Ga beat TN
ALA - Beat GA toe breaker
Ole Miss lost to GA - tie breaker
Alabama beat Candy tie breaker

We needed SC to beat Alabama and they failed A&M now must beat SC
common opponent

Winning is winning. Losing usually exposes lack of preparation and allows more insightful coaching, but everyone hates it if they care.

NoahAg said:

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Best scenerio is 11-1, finish 3rd in the SEC. 1st round playoff opponent will be an "easier" game than the SEC championship opponent. 4D chess.

This thread is more proof that conference championship games are dumb in this era of a 12 game playoff.

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Best scenario is 12-0 then win the second championship and be the number 1 overall seed



I don't want us to lose a single game

An 11-1 or 12-1 with our 1 loss being in the SECCG Texas A&M team will get a 1st round bye

Should still want to make and win the SECCG. We want it all.