SouthCollegeStation said:
My Thoughts:
We will lose to Florida, LSU and t.u.,
We will beat Notre Dame and everyone else to finish with a 9 - 3 record.
But will not make the playoffs with a 9 - 3 record.
I agree with your prediction of road losses at LSU and Texas, but I think we have a much better chance of beating Florida at home than Notre Dame on the road. Florida ended last season on a 4-game winning streak, but that included home wins over LSU and Ole Miss, one road win at Florida State, and one bowl win over Tulane.
1. Since 2018, we are 18-7 in SEC home games; 16-6 under Jimbo Fisher and 2-1 under Mike Elko.
2. Florida is 4-13 (3-11 SEC) in true Power 4 road games since 2021, 0-4 (0-4 SEC) in Dan Mullen's final season in 2021 and 4-9 (3-7 SEC) under Billy Napier. Billy Napier is good for exactly one SEC road win each year; 5-7 (2-6 SEC) Texas A&M in 2022, 5-7 (3-5 SEC) South Carolina in 2023, and 2-10 (0-8 SEC) Mississippi State in 2024. His only other road win came against 2-10 (1-7 ACC) Florida State in 2024. None of those 4 teams finished better than 5-7.
3. We will be playing our 3rd straight home game and should be coming off an easy win over Mississippi State. In contrast, Florida will be coming off a tough home game against Texas and playing the last game of a brutal 4-game stretch against LSU (away), Miami (away), bye week, Texas (home), and Texas A&M (away) in a span of 5 weeks. That means we will have home field, psychological, and physiological advantages over Florida.
In contrast, we have won lost 6 consecutive true road games to non-conference Power 4 teams since a 14-12 win at Pittsburgh in 2002.
2003: 35-19 loss at #18 Virginia Tech
2005: 25-24 loss at Clemson
2007: 34-17 loss at Miami
2017: 45-44 loss at UCLA
2019: 24-10 loss at #1 Clemson
2023: 48-33 loss at Miami
Note: I did not include our 10-7 win over Colorado in 2021 because it was at Mile High Stadium in Denver instead of Folsom Field, making it officially a neutral-site matchup. Also, I did not include our 41-21 loss at Utah in 2004 because Utah was in the Moutain West at the time of that game.