UTSA W
Utah State W
@ Notre Dame L
Auburn W
Mississippi State W
Florida W
@ Arkansas W
@ LSU L
@ Missouri W
South Carolina W
Samford W
@ Texas L
I think we will have a floor of 7-5 and a ceiling of 9-3 with likely road losses at Notre Dame, LSU, and Texas. The 5 road games at Notre Dame, Arkansas, Missouri, LSU, and Texas will make or break our season.
Even if we beat Arkansas, we are almost guaranteed to lose to LSU because winning SEC road games in back-to-back weeks is the rarest of the birds. Before this season, it had only been done 8 times in 78 such occurrences over the last decade, and 3 times in 38 occurrences over the last five years (the same disclaimer applies here as in the linked article: this tally does
not include trips to Nashville or games separated by a bye week). Those three teams were 2019 LSU, 2022 Georgia, and 2023 Alabama; in other words, two national champions and a top 4 team. Each of these teams had a "down" performance in one half of said back-to-back but were able to overcome it when all was said and done.
Texas A&M football fans should be furious about the schedule the SEC just handed them