Elmo/deKlein like to go for it a lot, and opposing teams caught on quickly. The formula is simple, if the ball is on the opponents 33-45 (and line to gain is under 10 yards), we go for it. We almost always try to draw a penalty unless it is shorter than 3 yards. Good teams didn't fall for it, we drew a penalty 3 times (FLA, MSST, NMSt) but also had 3 false starts that led to punts (ND, ARK, NMSt), plus a delay of game (BG), and one illegal receiver downfield (AUB). Also, one failed conversion came against ND when Conner thought we had them offsides. We tried again against McNeese 4th and 7 on the MCN 35, but they didn't fall for it after three tries. Luckily their DBs suck and we converted on a simple comeback on the outside.

So how many times did we go for it on 4th and short? 14 times. We converted 6 times. 0 conversions against ranked opponents at time of play, 1 conversion against a currently ranked opponent (SC). 2 against Florida, 1 against Auburn. So 4/10 against SEC opponents

Also, we attempted to go for it 8 times on our opponents 40 yd line or farther, well into our own territory. We only converted 1 time, against bowling green in the final minute of the half. It was 4th and 3 on the BG 44 and we had just made a 20yd completion. So momentum plus end of half… not a terrible call. All 7 other attempts failed and most led to opponent scoring opportunities.
[ol]

ND - end of game on our own 33, led to ND field goal, had to go for it so not that bad

BG - 4th and 1 our own 32, delay of game after failing to get them offsides, led to punt

LSU - 4th and 2 on LSU 42 last minute of half, Conner pass batted down, LSU FG attempt (missed)

SC - 4th and 1 our own 34 first drive of game, led to SC touchdown and being down 14-0

SC - 4th and 1 our own 31, led to SC field goal and being down 20-30

AUB - 4th and 6 on Auburn 41, down 24-28 10min left in the 4th, illegal receiver penalty

tu - 4th and 3 on tu 43, last 30 seconds of half, led to tu field goal attempt (missed)

[/ol]
These were all in close games, mostly from behind, so I understand the high risk/reward, but we weren't good enough to justify so many attempts, and this often made our situation worse.

FGs: 19/22 - long 55 (opponents 37 yd line)
4th down conversion attempts: 24
Overall: 10/24
Penalties drawn vs on us: 3-5 (total 8 plays affected by penalties)
Successful: 7/16
4th and short: 6/14
Against SEC: 4/10
Against ranked opponents: 0/6

Other trends for going for it were the difference in score, if we were up by multiple scores or down by multiple scores, we would go for it on 4th and short instead of taking the FG. If the game was close, we usually took the FG. Seems straight forward.

The notes:
ND
(11:07 - 1st) 4th & 3 at ND 17 - Randy Bond 34 yd FG GOOD
(14:14 - 2nd) 4th & 3 at ND 32 - Randy Bond 49 yd FG GOOD
(8:55 3rd) 4th & 8 on ND 37 - CW Incomplete thought we had them offsides, no call
*(1:34 4th) 4th & 2 at TA&M 33 - CW Incomplete had to go for it, good play by defender
(1:31 3rd) 4th & 5 at ND 45 - going for it but then penalty (very weak especially with the no call earlier)

McNeese
(0:44 - 2nd) 4th & 6 at MCN 25 - Randy Bond 42 yd FG GOOD
(7:13 4th) 4th & 7 at MCN 35 - MR Complete
*(4:23 4th) 4th & Goal at MCN 2 - MR Incomplete roll out left, low throw

Florida
(8:14 - 1st) 4th & 11 at FLA 13 - Randy Bond 31 yd FG GOOD
(1:07 1st) 4th & 5 at FLA 36 - FLA def hold bailed out because ball was uncatchable
(9:47 - 2nd) 4th & 11 at FLA 31 - Randy Bond 48 Yd Field Goal
*(1:50 2nd) 4th & 1 at FLA 23 - AD run up 13-0 with success running already and in the rain
(8:28 - 4th) 4th & 3 at FLA 22 - Randy Bond 40 yd FG MISSED up 33-13 in the rain
(3:24 - 4th) 4th & 3 at FLA 23 - Randy Bond 40 yd FG MISSED up 33-20 in the rain
*(0:23 4th) 4th & 2 at FLA 24 - EJ run up 33-20 time to ice the game

BG
*(10:38 1st) 4th & 1 at BG 37 - MR Complete, first drive of game
(10:17 - 2nd) 4th & 3 at BGSU 11 - Randy Bond 28 yd FG GOOD
*(0:51 2nd) 4th & 3 at BG 44 - MR Complete, last seconds of half, had 20 yd completion previous play
(0:02 - 2nd) 4th & 2 at BGSU 12 - Randy Bond 29 yd FG GOOD
(3:09 - 3rd) 4th & 1 at TA&M 32 Texas A&M Penalty, Delay Of Game
(12:56 - 4th) 4th & 7 at BGSU 16 - Randy Bond 34 yd FG GOOD
(7:15 - 4th) 4th & 2 at BGSU 25 - Randy Bond 42 yd FG GOOD

Arky
(10:08 2nd) 4th & 2 at Arky 38 - Penalty False Start

Missouri
(5:01 - 1st) 4th & 6 at MIZ 27 - Randy Bond 44 yd FG GOOD
(6:30 - 3rd ) 4th & 14 at MIZ 21 - Randy Bond 38 yd FG GOOD

MSST
(2:00 2nd) 4th & 3 at MSST 21 - CW Incomplete, Penalty on MSST blitz pressure, CW threw it up to NT
(7:10 - 3rd) 4th & Goal at MSST 11 - Randy Bond 28 yd FG GOOD
(6:13 - 4th) 4th & 2 at MSST 27 - Randy Bond 44 yd FG GOOD

LSU
*(0:57 2nd) 4th & 2 at LSU 42 - CW Incomplete, seam route open but pass batted down, led to LSU FG
(3:44 - 4th) 4th & Goal at LSU 9 - Randy Bond 26 yd FG GOOD

SC
*(9:11 1st) 4th & 1 at TA&M 34 - MR fail run
(5:15 - 1st) 4th & 2 at SC 34 - Randy Bond 52 yd FG GOOD
(13:12 - 2nd) 4th & 18 at SC 37 - Randy Bond 55 yd FG GOOD
*(2:00 2nd) 4th & 1 at SC 9 - AD run
*(7:40 3rd) 4th & 1 at TA&M 31 - AD fail run

NMst
(4:26 - 1st) 4th & 3 at NMSU 20 - Randy Bond 37 yd FG GOOD
(5:22 2nd) 4th & 1 at NMst 36 - penalty false start
(0:38 2nd) 4th & 3 at NMst 38 - MR Incomplete, drew penalty

Auburn
(6:47 - 1st) 4th & 7 at AUB 36 - Randy Bond 53 yd FG MISSED
*(6:26 2nd) 4th & 1 at Auburn 11 - AD run
(12:47 - 4th) 4th & 10 at AUB 15 - Randy Bond 32 yd FG GOOD
(9:58 - 4th) 4th & 6 at AUB 41 - Marcel Reed pass incomplete, penalty illegal receiver downfield

tu
*(9:39 1st) 4th & 1 at tu 10 - AD run fail
*(0:30 2nd) 4th & 3 at tu 43 - MR run fail
*(4:36 4th) 4th & Goal at tu 1 - AD run fail

Solid research. Someone seems 4th down hard-headed.

Basically we ain't that good at 4th down plays

Keep working on it until it's unstoppable.

Doesn't change anything, but I'll leave this here:

This actually pisses me off more than anything else.

If you know the refs are biased against you and your team has been penalized heavily all year, then don't line up on 4th down and expect the refs to bail you out with a flag. WE GOT MORE PENALTIES THAN WE DREW ON 4th

The refs are so bad that people just accept it as is. The argument on refs has gone from you can't leave it up to the refs to "well you know we always gotta play 18 not 11!" I'm so tired of having to play a perfect game while our opponent gets helped out. ND, SC, Auburn, and tu all had game changing calls/no calls

Being more risk averse isn't the solution. That is the problem with statistical certainty.

I have no problem with being aggressive and going for it.

But one area they need to fix in the offseason is the execution presnap for all involved. Elko needs to make the decision fast and possibly even prior to the 3rd down play so Klein can focus.


Klein needs to also be faster at calling the play. He also needs to clean up his system on relaying the play to the team. It's beyond slow at times.

Run the play as fast as possible with the defense not even being set.

All these things need cleaned up.

Besides giving us a better chance at getting the first down, cleaning all these areas up would also help us stop wasting timeouts in these situations.


If all these areas cannot be addressed, then I would agree with OP, we need to be less aggressive. My thoughts are these can be addressed or Klein does need to be replaced.

TxAg8908 said:

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Basically we ain't that good at calling good 4th down plays

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FIFY

OMB100GAS said:

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This actually pisses me off more than anything else.

If you know the refs are biased against you and your team has been penalized heavily all year, then don't line up on 4th down and expect the refs to bail you out with a flag. WE GOT MORE PENALTIES THAN WE DREW ON 4th

The refs are so bad that people just accept it as is. The argument on refs has gone from you can't leave it up to the refs to "well you know we always gotta play 18 not 11!" I'm so tired of having to play a perfect game while our opponent gets helped out. ND, SC, Auburn, and tu all had game changing calls/no calls

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That was an egregious offsides miss.......but, we shouldn't have been in the situation of 4th & goal.

Kramer said:

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Doesn't change anything, but I'll leave this here:

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This is when I'm pleading "please don't run up the middle, please, please......... %^^%$#$% &^%%^!"

What you really want to know is the point differential from 4th down calls over the season.

How many points did we gain on drives where we went for it VS how many points were gained by opponent on ensuing drive after turnover.

And, you would want to know how many potential FG points we left on the board by going for it on 4th down in FG territory

Analytics would say, go for it. Didnt work for us .

OP great write up if you have the opportunity please go back and let us know how many times Reed telegraphed run versus pass. If you haven't seen the other thread his feet are even on a called run and staggered on a pass.

I will review the drive charts and get back to you. I know conversions against BG led to points and 1 conversion against Florida led to points and another iced the game

The failures don't look so bad, ND and tu both missed their FG attempts and Auburn punted after our 4th and 6

But SC directly led to 10 points for the cocks

How many times do you fail tho before you stop listening to analytics? Because we were really only successful against Bowling Green and Florida

8 plays affected by penalty, 5 against us leading to punts
4/10 in sec play
0 conversions against ranked opponents

Again at what point do you stop listening to the analytics

I absolutely believe going for it on 4th needs to be used much more in football in general. Now, the plays called recently... not so much.

Kramer said:

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Doesn't change anything, but I'll leave this here:

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10-guys in the box...lets run the ball...that'll show 'em!

There's 10 guys in the box bc we had 11 guys in the box.

It's like we really wanted that play to fail.

My thought was, its going to be a pass to tught end or marcel run option.

True but our analytics as evidenced by the OP tell us to not go for it in quite a few sitatuions that we did.

OMB100GAS said:

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This actually pisses me off more than anything else.

If you know the refs are biased against you and your team has been penalized heavily all year, then don't line up on 4th down and expect the refs to bail you out with a flag. WE GOT MORE PENALTIES THAN WE DREW ON 4th

The refs are so bad that people just accept it as is. The argument on refs has gone from you can't leave it up to the refs to "well you know we always gotta play 18 not 11!" I'm so tired of having to play a perfect game while our opponent gets helped out. ND, SC, Auburn, and tu all had game changing calls/no calls

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It's a weird Aggie fanbase phenomenon I don't understand. I interact with so many that response to things like 30+ qtrs with no holding calls is "There's not some anti-A&M consipiracy theres nothing abnormal. Everyteam has to overcome bad officiating"

It's consistently heavily one way and quite obvious.

Two things can be true:

1) We need to play better
2) We are consistently getting shafted

RUGuys4Real said:

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Kramer said:

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Doesn't change anything, but I'll leave this here:

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This is when I'm pleading "please don't run up the middle, please, please......... %^^%$#$% &^%%^!"

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I called it also! The OC needs to turn the page!

Kramer said:

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Doesn't change anything, but I'll leave this here:

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Yea, and nothing says A&M would have made a TD with 4 more downs. The game was out of reach at that time with Elko watching almost a minute click off the clock and realizing what was happening then frantically calling time out. COMEDY OF ERRORS!!!!! He won't be here in four years!

My point was a simple roll out and release the TE would have worked. tu was 100% sold to stop the run.

aeon-ag said:

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Kramer said:

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Doesn't change anything, but I'll leave this here:

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Yea, and nothing says A&M would have made a TD with 4 more downs. The game was out of reach at that time with Elko watching almost a minute click off the clock and realizing what was happening then frantically calling time out. COMEDY OF ERRORS!!!!! He won't be here in four years!

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In 4 years they'll be making a moving, "From the greatest recruiting class of all time to the biggest turnaround in football history!" Since we're just shootin our mouths off.

We almost never passed the ball on 4th and short. I may be misunderstanding play calls but I only remember two passes both on 4th and 3 and one was batted down (LSU) and the other broke down and Marcel tried to scramble (tu)

so only 1 pass on 4th and short

This is getting lost in a lot of discussion, but yeah we had the ball back in the redzone with over 7min left in the 4th.

Two scores down, you need to move quickly and absolutely need to get at least 3 points. If you aren't able to quickly get a TD, then you need to take the FG ASAP and get a stop on defense. Nope, we decided to both run the clock out and get no points.

Beating a dead horse here, but for the love of all that is Holy, learn to do the Bush Push or Brotherly Shove! If Reed isn't thought to be big enough, practice it with the back up, or a running back, or a lineman or... If you are COMMITTED to going from Shotgun (which I hate) then at least run a play action pass a couple of times to mix it up. The screen shot of 11 sips on the line of scrimmage happens when they have ZERO fear of a pass. Slamming the ball up between the tackles repeatedly on every 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 is insane. SO FRUSTRATED with this aspect of the offensive game plan-and it is no different than what Jimbum did.

We need to do things differently on 4th and short. We need a fullback, not your average fullback, but someone tipping the scales at around 140 pounds. Lean and mean. Then pull out our regular OL and replace them with a bunch of 150 to 170 pound lineman. Bunch them all in close. Have the receivers playing in close as well. Guarantee you the defense has not been prepared for that sort of scenario. Might not work, but then what we have been doing hasn't either.

While I appreciate all the work you put in to make this post, what I think really needs fixing is our excessive use of the UTMFN (up the middle for nothing [<4 yards]), and the WENY (west-east for no yards) plays.

If we can do UTMFN and WENY and gain at least 4 yards per attempt, I'm a happy camper because we'll make a bundle of first downs. But, what we usually do is run UTMFN and WENY on both 1rst and 2nd downs, with little or no gain, then we're forced into a passing situation.... which rarely works out.

If the coaches checked their data on how successful they've been using the UTMFN and WENY plays, then they wouldn't try it over and over on fourth and short ! If you're going to go for it on 4th and short, then DO NOT run UTMFN or WENY plays; run end around, trick play, sideline pass, etc., instead.

Would love for someone to put together a spreadsheet of all of our UTMFN plays and WENY plays this year (and earlier), how many times we ran them in each game, and the number of yards gained/lossed per play. Maybe if the coaches saw this data, and it shows UTMFN and WENY are NOT successful over a season, then they would not go for it on 4th down; or if they did, they wouldn't use the UTMFN or WENY play.

Ok so I reviewed the drive charts, and situationally its about even on the point differential with a slight field goal lean toward positive points if you don't count situations like when we basically were forced to go for it against ND

Also the way I graded this is if we went for it on 4th in FG range instead of taking the points, and then scored a TD that would only be +4, but if we went for it outside of FG range and then scored a TD on that drive it would be +7 because there was no chances for FG points on 4th down

BUT HOLD ON Let's remove the games against unranked OOC opponents and just look at SEC and ND... ok now it's looking closer to -4 points on the season.

And then let's remove the drives that the refs helped us on... yikes it's -19 points.

And finally, if teams had capitalized on their FG attempts after we gave them mid field position (LSU, tu) it would have been -25 in point differential

PS- if you look closely at the times when we lined up to go for it but then got a penalty and had to punt.... those punts often landed inside the 10, no team scored on us the following drive, and in the Arky game we forced a fumble at the 9 and then scored. It turns out when you have a good punter, punting is actually very helpful!!


Notes

Notre Dame Conner thought we had them offsides, worst case 4th and 3 in FG range, but no call and then ND went down and scored a TD in 4 plays. -7. At the end of the game, we had to go for it, Conner threw a good ball and receiver ran good route but DB crashed hard and made a good play. ND would then kick a FG -3

McNeese we were on edge of FG range with a 4th and 7, decided to go for it, got it, and then got all the way down to the MCN 2 but didn't score. -3 at least (could be argued we should have gotten a TD so -7)

Florida we were on edge of FG range but weather conditions not favorable. 4th and 5, refs bailed us out on a early hold in the play but ball probably wouldn't have been catchable. Led to a TD +7. Up 13-0 under two minutes in the half, we went for it on 4th and 1 at the 23. Well within FG range, but the rain was coming down. Later in the drive we would face a 2nd and 31 due to penalties but then we got a call out way and we converted that distance. Led to a TD +4. Finally we EJ converted on 4th and 2 in garbage time to ice the game (no points added or subtracted)

Bowling Green we went for it on their 37 early in the first quarter and would eventually score on that drive +7. Then in the final minute of the half we had like a 3rd and 23 and then made a 20yd completion and then converted on 4th and 3. This led to a FG +3. Finally we lined up to for for it in the 3rd but we couldn't draw them offsides, so we took the delay of game. This fortunately led to a punt inside their own 10 and they would miss a FG on that drive.

Arky we lined up to go for it early in the second but had a false start penalty. This penalty led to a punt inside the 10 and we would then force a fumble and score a TD next drive.

Mississippi State we got an interception on their 25yd line well within FG range and up 14-10. We then faced a 4th&3 and went for it. The defense immediately got to Conner and he threw it up to Noah Thomas even though he wasn't open. Luckily the defender held NT and we got the conversion. This led to a TD +4

LSU we went for it in the last minute of the half. It was 4th and 2 just across the 50, conner had the seam route open, identified it, but the pass was batted down. May have been a TD, a conversion at least. This failure led to LSU attempting a FG and we were lucky they missed it.

SC was the worst one, although we did technically convert before half. Down 0-7 early in the first quarter, we went for it on our own 34 and Marcel failed to run it across the line. SC would then score a TD and go up 14 points -7. Then with two minute left in the half we converted on the SC 9 to complete the first half comeback and tie the game. Not a huge risk because worst case we are down 13-17 and get ball back at half, but we could have taken the FG and only been down 16-17 with ball back so... +4? Finally, we went for it in the middle of the third on our own 31 again down 7 points. We failed and SC went on to score a FG and increase their lead to 10. -3

New Mexico state we lined up to go for it in the 2nd quarter but then had a false start that led to a punt. The punt landed at the 3 and NMst would miss a FG on their next drive. In the last minute of the half, we converted a 4th and 3 thanks to a penalty, but then Marcel threw an interception in FG range. -3

Auburn we were down 21-0 and had the ball in the redzone in the second quarter. FGs were not going to help us out of our hole so we went for it on 4th and 1 and that drive we got a TD +4. Then early in the 4th quarter down 24-28, Theo dropped a first down. We were out of FG range so we went for it on 4th and 6. At first it looked like we got a defensive holding call but instead we were flagged for an illegal receiver down field.

And against tu we went for it on 4th and 1 on the first drive of the game on the tu 10. Failed and then they would punt -3. Then we went for it right before half on the tu 43, failed and gave tu a FG attempt. Luckily they missed. Finally, we had the ball in the redzone with over 7min left in the game, but then we rand the clock out and failed to get a TD. -3

Unfortunately, I don't have good data on this and would have to ball park it by watching each game on youtube again. At that point I just need to take a page out of my grandmas book and fill a stat sheet while watching the games live in season. (my grandma would listen to baseball on the radio and score it all)

AgExtension said:

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Beating a dead horse here, but for the love of all that is Holy, learn to do the Bush Push or Brotherly Shove! If Reed isn't thought to be big enough, practice it with the back up, or a running back, or a lineman or... If you are COMMITTED to going from Shotgun (which I hate) then at least run a play action pass a couple of times to mix it up. The screen shot of 11 sips on the line of scrimmage happens when they have ZERO fear of a pass. Slamming the ball up between the tackles repeatedly on every 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 is insane. SO FRUSTRATED with this aspect of the offensive game plan-and it is no different than what Jimbum did.

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I watched Oregon the other night run some good plays under center……then again Oregon runs all kinds of great plays period.