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Auburn was the game that doomed A&M

4,105 Views | 32 Replies | Last: 22 days ago by Iraq2xVeteran
H0RNbyBIRTH
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Got this tiebreaker info from BigBro at SEC Rant. He used Conference Standings Calculator.

Let's just say that the Texas game was an expected A&M loss. They were higher ranked and many pundits thought of them highly. Vegas had them winning.

If A&M had beat Auburn as they were expect to by most, A&M would still be playing in the SEC championship even with the Texas loss. Here is how the standings WOULD have been at the end of regular season play in this scenario.

Crazy that a 4OT game doomed A&M. Agree/Disagree?

1. Texas (7 - 1)

2. Texas A&M (6 - 2)
Above Georgia and Tennessee based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).

3. Georgia (6 - 2)
With Tennessee, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Above Tennessee based on head-to-head record (1-0).

4. Tennessee (6 - 2)
With Georgia, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375).
Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).

5. LSU (5 - 3)
With Ole Miss, Missouri, and S Carolina, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-0).
Above Ole Miss, Missouri, and S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156).

6. S Carolina (5 - 3)
With LSU, Ole Miss, and Missouri, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-0).
With Ole Miss and Missouri, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5).
Above Ole Miss and Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5).

7. Ole Miss (5 - 3)
With LSU, Missouri, and S Carolina, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-0).
With Missouri and S Carolina, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4063).
With Missouri, below S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4063).
Above Missouri based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).

8. Missouri (5 - 3)
With LSU, Ole Miss, and S Carolina, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-0).
With Ole Miss and S Carolina, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906).
With Ole Miss, below S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906).
Below Ole Miss based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-1).

9. Alabama (5 - 3)
Below LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, and S Carolina based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (0-1).
Ag1188
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AG
We can barely score a TD. We got bigger issues.
murphyag
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Only Fans Director said:

Got this tiebreaker info from BigBro at SEC Rant. He used Conference Standings Calculator.

Let's just say that the Texas game was an expected A&M loss. They were higher ranked and many pundits thought of them highly. Vegas had them winning.

If A&M had beat Auburn as they were expect to by most, A&M would still be playing in the SEC championship even with the Texas loss. Here is how the standings WOULD have been at the end of regular season play in this scenario.

Crazy that a 4OT game doomed A&M. Agree/Disagree?

1. Texas (7 - 1)

2. Texas A&M (6 - 2)
Above Georgia and Tennessee based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).

3. Georgia (6 - 2)
With Tennessee, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Above Tennessee based on head-to-head record (1-0).

4. Tennessee (6 - 2)
With Georgia, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375).
Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).

5. LSU (5 - 3)
With Ole Miss, Missouri, and S Carolina, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-0).
Above Ole Miss, Missouri, and S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156).

6. S Carolina (5 - 3)
With LSU, Ole Miss, and Missouri, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-0).
With Ole Miss and Missouri, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5).
Above Ole Miss and Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5).

7. Ole Miss (5 - 3)
With LSU, Missouri, and S Carolina, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-0).
With Missouri and S Carolina, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4063).
With Missouri, below S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4063).
Above Missouri based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).

8. Missouri (5 - 3)
With LSU, Ole Miss, and S Carolina, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-0).
With Ole Miss and S Carolina, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906).
With Ole Miss, below S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906).
Below Ole Miss based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-1).

9. Alabama (5 - 3)
Below LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, and S Carolina based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (0-1).
Nope. Ags were doomed the moment Moss went down.
Tex117
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Of course it was.

It's why I was more bummed about that game than the Texas game.
Farmer_J
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Losing Moss ended this season.

Its that simple

Iraq2xVeteran
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I agree. I remember a thread about paths to the the SEC Championship Game.

https://texags.com/forums/5/topics/3510188/replies/69076660

Florida's 24-17 upset of Florida, and Oklahoma's 24-3 drubbing of Alabama created the opportunity for that to happen, but we could not take advantage of the chaos because we lost a road game at 5-7 (2-6 SEC) Auburn. I think that our 43-41 4-overtime loss at Auburn was the most disappointing loss this season. If we had won that road game, we would have finished with a 6-2 SEC record, which would have tied with Georgia and Tennessee.

We would have played Texas in a rematch SEC Championship Game rematch. Yes, Texas probably would have beaten us again in the rematch. Still, it's frustrating how Texas finishes with an 11-1 (7-1 SEC) regular season record and the SEC Championship Game in Texas' first year in the conference when we couldn't do it once in 13 years in the conference.
vander54
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S
Exactly. We already lost are top RB to start the season and then lost Moss and it was over. Thats why we molust start the season with 5 capable backs. Right now we have 3
World's worst proofreader
the most cool guy
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That's wrong. Here is the order of tiebreakers…

https://www.secsports.com/news/2024/08/sec-announces-football-tie-breaking-process

We lose out to Georgia under both B and C because under (B) we lost to one of our common opponents, and (C) even if they had lost to a different one of our common opponents, they would have the best win as between sip and whoever we would have beat that they didn't.

Opponent conference win percentage comes after both of those.
Tex117
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Farmer_J said:


Losing Moss ended this season.

Its that simple


you can draw a line from that moment… completely down

(Not saying it's all Moss going down… but that was the moment it never recovered)
HoustonAggie427
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Only Fans Director said:

Got this tiebreaker info from BigBro at SEC Rant. He used Conference Standings Calculator.

Let's just say that the Texas game was an expected A&M loss. They were higher ranked and many pundits thought of them highly. Vegas had them winning.

If A&M had beat Auburn as they were expect to by most, A&M would still be playing in the SEC championship even with the Texas loss. Here is how the standings WOULD have been at the end of regular season play in this scenario.

Crazy that a 4OT game doomed A&M. Agree/Disagree?

1. Texas (7 - 1)

2. Texas A&M (6 - 2)
Above Georgia and Tennessee based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).

3. Georgia (6 - 2)
With Tennessee, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Above Tennessee based on head-to-head record (1-0).

4. Tennessee (6 - 2)
With Georgia, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375).
Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).

5. LSU (5 - 3)
With Ole Miss, Missouri, and S Carolina, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-0).
Above Ole Miss, Missouri, and S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156).

6. S Carolina (5 - 3)
With LSU, Ole Miss, and Missouri, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-0).
With Ole Miss and Missouri, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5).
Above Ole Miss and Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5).

7. Ole Miss (5 - 3)
With LSU, Missouri, and S Carolina, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-0).
With Missouri and S Carolina, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4063).
With Missouri, below S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4063).
Above Missouri based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).

8. Missouri (5 - 3)
With LSU, Ole Miss, and S Carolina, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-0).
With Ole Miss and S Carolina, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906).
With Ole Miss, below S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906).
Below Ole Miss based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-1).

9. Alabama (5 - 3)
Below LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, and S Carolina based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (0-1).


Would rather have lost to Auburn then lose to tu again
BlueSmoke
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Texas lost their best back last season and the whole group this season. It's about depth and adapting on offense that matters. If your entire offense grinds to a halt for one guy, you have bigger issues
dixichkn
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vander54 said:

Exactly. We already lost are top RB to start the season and then lost Moss and it was over. Thats why we molust start the season with 5 capable backs. Right now we have 3
Agree to disagree but I think Moss WAS our top RB
Hellcat64
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Elko hiring was the doom point. Acknowledge reality..
dixichkn
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Tex117 said:

Of course it was.

It's why I was more bummed about that game than the Texas game.
tu sucks only from the standpoint of having to listen to the T shirt trash all weekend. At least it's a respectable loss though.
Auburn……..not so much
Robag09
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You are incorrect, it is based on common opponents among the tied team. That would mean opponents all 3 teams played (not just A&M and Georgia). This is why we would have made the conference championship game with a win at Auburn. Its all the past now, but us brushing past the pathetic performance at Auburn is typical Aggie thing to do.

Tie Breaker A: not all 3 teams played each other so move to Tie Breaker B.

Tie Breaker B: only common opponents between the 3 tied teams (Florida & Miss St.)
- Texas A&M 2-0
- Georgia 2-0
- Tennessee 2-0

Tie Breaker C: Record against highest common conference opponent in SEC rankings (only common opponents were Florida & Miss St, so Florida record.)
-Texas A&M 1-0
- Georgia 1-0
- Tennessee 1-0

Tie Breaker D: cumulative conference win percentage of the tied teams.
- Texas A&M - conference opponent win percentage (0.4688)
- Georgia - conference opponent win percentage (0.4531)
- Tennessee - conference opponent win percentage (0.375)
Decay
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Hellcat64 said:

Elko hiring was the doom point. Acknowledge reality..
LOL if you think Jimbo would have us doing any better
the most cool guy
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Robag09 said:

You are incorrect, it is based on common opponents among the tied team. That would mean opponents all 3 teams played (not just A&M and Georgia). This is why we would have made the conference championship game with a win at Auburn. Its all the past now, but us brushing past the pathetic performance at Auburn is typical Aggie thing to do.

Tie Breaker A: not all 3 teams played each other so move to Tie Breaker B.

Tie Breaker B: only common opponents between the 3 tied teams (Florida & Miss St.)
- Texas A&M 2-0
- Georgia 2-0
- Tennessee 2-0

Tie Breaker C: Record against highest common conference opponent in SEC rankings (only common opponents were Florida & Miss St, so Florida record.)
-Texas A&M 1-0
- Georgia 1-0
- Tennessee 1-0

Tie Breaker D: cumulative conference win percentage of the tied teams.
- Texas A&M - conference opponent win percentage (0.4688)
- Georgia - conference opponent win percentage (0.4531)
- Tennessee - conference opponent win percentage (0.375)
No, bro. Tie-breaker A is "among" the tied teams, not "between every tied team." For any teams with the same conference record that played each other, as between those teams, you apply tie-breaker A. You don't just skip tie-breaker A. Look at wherever there was head-to-head competition among the tied teams. It was Georgia and Tennessee. So, as between Georgia and Tennessee, Tennessee can't go over Georgia because Georgia beat them. We didn't play Georgia or Tennessee, and Tennessee is out, so we go to tiebreaker B with Georgia, and they win.

You do not skip tiebreaker A just because all of the tied teams didn't play each other. You still look at who beat who. Now, if we had all played each other and beaten each other (Georgia beat Tennessee, we beat Georgia, and Tennessee beat us), THEN you would skip tiebreaker A because they would all cancel out.

Tennessee does not suddenly get a free pass to skip tiebreaker A (head to head) with Georgia just because a third team that didn't play either of them also happens to have the same number of conference wins. That would make no sense.
Joes
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the most cool guy said:

That's wrong. Here is the order of tiebreakers…

https://www.secsports.com/news/2024/08/sec-announces-football-tie-breaking-process

We lose out to Georgia under both B and C because under (B) we lost to one of our common opponents, and (C) even if they had lost to a different one of our common opponents, they would have the best win as between sip and whoever we would have beat that they didn't.

Opponent conference win percentage comes after both of those.


Exactly. This was made clear repeatedly leading up to the game: "Winner of this game plays Georgia." Period.
BreckCO2000
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Farmer_J said:


Losing Moss ended this season.

Its that simple




The offensive line, offensive coordinator, quarterbacks, and run defense ended the season.
Robag09
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Please look at the examples provided by the SEC in your own link. It clearly states the way head to head is handled in the event of a 3-way tie for 2nd place. And a win at Auburn would have us in the SEC championship game.

3. Three-Team Tie (or More) for Second Place: In the event three or more teams are tied for second
place in the Conference, the following procedure will be used in the following order:

After the head-to-head competition among the tied teams, if a tiebreaker step produces standings
with a clear No. 1 team by itself, that team is selected for the championship game. If the standings produced by any tiebreaker procedure result in a tie at the top that is insufficient for assigning a championship game participant, but includes one or more teams ranked below the tied
teams, the tied teams at the top of the standings will revert to the beginning of the tiebreaker procedures and all other teams are eliminated.

Head-to-head competition among the tied teams

1. If there is a complete round robin, meaning all tied teams played each other:
a. If one team has sole possession of the best record among the tied teams, that team is selected for the championship game

b. If two teams are tied for the best record within the round robin standings:
i. Those teams revert to the beginning of the two-team tiebreaker procedures for second place; and
ii. All other teams are eliminated from contention in the Conference Championship Game

c. If three or more teams are tied for the best record within the round robin standings and there are teams below the best record:
i. The teams with the best record revert to the beginning of the three-team (or more) tiebreaker procedures for second place; and
ii. All other teams are eliminated from contention in the Conference Championship Game

2. If there is not a complete round robin among the tied teams:
a. If one team beat all the other tied teams, it is selected for the championship game

b. If one team lost to all the other tied teams, it is eliminated, and the remaining teams revert to the beginning of the tiebreaker procedures for second place

c. If no team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, all the tied teams advance to the next step in the tiebreaker procedures




ccolley68
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BlueSmoke said:

Texas lost their best back last season and the whole group this season. It's about depth and adapting on offense that matters. If your entire offense grinds to a halt for one guy, you have bigger issues
Oh we have bigger issues alright. We can't run, we can't pass, we can't block, we can't catch, we can't cover, we can't tackle. Am I missing any?
vander54
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dixichkn said:

vander54 said:

Exactly. We already lost are top RB to start the season and then lost Moss and it was over. Thats why we molust start the season with 5 capable backs. Right now we have 3
Agree to disagree but I think Moss WAS our top RB


No way to know for sure but Owens was 1a and Moss was 1b. Either way i think the two of them with Daniels being our 3rd back will be scary.
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vander54
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Joes said:

the most cool guy said:

That's wrong. Here is the order of tiebreakers…

https://www.secsports.com/news/2024/08/sec-announces-football-tie-breaking-process

We lose out to Georgia under both B and C because under (B) we lost to one of our common opponents, and (C) even if they had lost to a different one of our common opponents, they would have the best win as between sip and whoever we would have beat that they didn't.

Opponent conference win percentage comes after both of those.


Exactly. This was made clear repeatedly leading up to the game: "Winner of this game plays Georgia." Period.


If we had beaten Auburn we could and probably would have made the championship even with loss to tu. Losing to Auburn made it a most win game.
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Iraq2xVeteran
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vander54 said:

Joes said:

the most cool guy said:

That's wrong. Here is the order of tiebreakers…

https://www.secsports.com/news/2024/08/sec-announces-football-tie-breaking-process

We lose out to Georgia under both B and C because under (B) we lost to one of our common opponents, and (C) even if they had lost to a different one of our common opponents, they would have the best win as between sip and whoever we would have beat that they didn't.

Opponent conference win percentage comes after both of those.


Exactly. This was made clear repeatedly leading up to the game: "Winner of this game plays Georgia." Period.


If we had beaten Auburn we could and probably would have made the championship even with loss to tu. Losing to Auburn made it a most win game.
Exactly, Georgia clinched an SEC Championship Game after our 43-41 4-OT loss at Auburn. That's why it had been repeatedly stated that Georgia plays the winner of the Texas vs Texas A&M game in the SEC Championship Game.

Georgia clinches spot in SEC Championship Game thanks to tiebreakers, will play winner of Texas vs. Texas A&M - CBSSports.com
PatAg
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Nah, it was Moss getting injured
Bryanisbest
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We lost our mojo South Carolina week and never got it back.
Aggie Apotheosis
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Farmer_J said:


Losing Moss ended this season.

Its that simple



It's true, but it shouldn't have been. Sips were on their 4th RB and he gashed us for 200 yards.

JayM
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vander54 said:

Exactly. We already lost are top RB to start the season and then lost Moss and it was over. Thats why we molust start the season with 5 capable backs. Right now we have 3
Absolutely agree with you. It is high time to build roster depth. I'll cut Elko some slack on this. He got the team he got.
houstonaggie76
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I guess. But we have lost 3 in a row in the SEC.
levypantsEOY
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Could you imagine having to go play the sips AGAIN this weekend in Atlanta? Elko lost by 10 points after being gifted wrapped multiple red zone turnovers… At home!
If you think you feel bad now, imagine getting trounced twice in a row to the sips.
Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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Bryanisbest said:

We lost our mojo South Carolina week and never got it back.


in a lot of ways your right. losing moss was huge but something happened starting in that game. it's like the pressure got to us.

S carolina down 17-0
auburn down 21-0
Texas down 17-0

you just can't start that way against sec opponents and expect to win. we lost befor the games even got past the first quarter.
2004FIGHTINTXAG
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BlueSmoke said:

Texas lost their best back last season and the whole group this season. It's about depth and adapting on offense that matters. If your entire offense grinds to a halt for one guy, you have bigger issues

This and how about our defense not giving up 2-3 scores in the first quarter of the last few games. Besides the Texas game, the offense put up enough points to win, but the defense was pathetic the first half of the last three SEC games.
Iraq2xVeteran
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

Bryanisbest said:

We lost our mojo South Carolina week and never got it back.


in a lot of ways your right. losing moss was huge but something happened starting in that game. it's like the pressure got to us.

S carolina down 17-0
auburn down 21-0
Texas down 17-0

you just can't start that way against sec opponents and expect to win. we lost befor the games even got past the first quarter.
Even against LSU, we trailed 17-7 at halftime before outscoring LSU 31-6 to defeat LSU 38-23. We can't expect to trail SEC opponents by double digits at halftime and expect to win every single time. We need to learn to play well on both sides of the ball from start to finish.
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