Scenario A: W@Auburn, W vs Texas.
We play in Atlanta no matter what else happens.

Scenario B: W@Auburn, L vs Texas.
We need an Alabama loss and some of Georgia's opponents to lose to win the 6-2 tiebreaker and force a rematch against the sips. If Texas loses to Kentucky, it becomes a bit easier to grab a spot but still likely requires an Alabama loss. The most likely path via Scenario B is Alabama loses to Oklahoma or Auburn and Florida beats Ole Miss.

Scenario C: L@Auburn, W vs Texas.
Barring anything ridiculous, we'd be going to Atlanta only if Alabama drops a game. Simple as that.

Scenario D: L@Auburn, L vs Texas.
Mathematically eliminated; Georgia is already 6-2, and Texas would at worst finish 6-2 with a win against us.

Scenario B turns fun if Bama loses both remaining games. That drops Georgia's opponent win percentage below ours which sets up an A&M vs Texas rematch.

Also neat because Bama plays Auburn at 2:30 so we'd know how important our game is by kick off.

Beezy2389 said:

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Scenario B turns fun if Bama loses both remaining games. That drops Georgia's opponent win percentage below ours which sets up an A&M vs Texas rematch.

Also neat because Bama plays Auburn at 2:30 so we'd know how important our game is by kick off.

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Or Florida takes down Ole Miss, and Alabama drops one game. That forces a rematch.

Just f*****g win already.

Now do the scenarios for the school in Austin, with a loss to us being the only fixed constant.

Scenario B is also in play the final weekend if Auburn upsets Bama and Vandy beats Tennessee (doesn't require a Florida win over Ole Miss this weekend). But pull for Florida!

There are at least 2 scenarios in which we play Texas in the SEC Championship Game. They both require us beating Auburn and losing to Texas and Alabama losing to either Oklahoma (away) or Auburn (home).

A. Florida upsets Ole Miss.
1. Texas (7 - 1)

2. Texas A&M (6 - 2)
Above Georgia and Tennessee based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).

3. Georgia (6 - 2)
With Tennessee, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Above Tennessee based on head-to-head record (1-0).

4. Tennessee (6 - 2)
With Georgia, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375).
Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).

B. Vanderbilt upsets Tennessee.
1. Texas (7 - 1)

2. Texas A&M (6 - 2)
Above Georgia and Ole Miss based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).

3. Ole Miss (6 - 2)
With Georgia, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906).
Above Georgia based on head-to-head record (1-0).

4. Georgia (6 - 2)
With Ole Miss, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
Below Ole Miss based on head-to-head record (0-1).

Great discussion!

OF COURSE we want to just win the next two games... but nice to know that there is STILL a chance even if we trip up in one of those two games.

Scenario A. We can't count on any of those other mfers to do their part

We control our own destiny. If we can't take care of business, then screw it.

Scenario C is pretty much an oxymoron given that Bama has OU & Auburn remaining.

I don't have BAS so option A is all I have been thinking.

No matter what happens this weekend, there are going to be a lot of SEC teams next weekend with very specific rooting interests outside of their own team.

This isn't hard, the easiest path to Atlanta is to win the next two games- period.

Quote:

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"Scenario C: L@Auburn, W vs Texas.

Barring anything ridiculous, we'd be going to Atlanta only if Alabama drops a game. Simple as that.

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This is the one I don't understand. In this scenario, wouldn't we be 6-2 with at least 3 or 4 other teams? Wouldn't the tiereaker be "Cumulative conference winning percentages of all conference opponents among tied teams" in that scenario? I know Bama is in as one team. But why couldn't we be the 2nd team? It seems like we would have a real shot over Georgia in this scenario (if Florida beats Ole Miss and Vandy beats Tennessee). Where am I wrong here?