What would it take for Aggie's to get over this BAS thing?
Nothing would surprise me with these last 2 games, we're ahead of schedule.
Just keep progressing and recruiting!

Why are we talking about Auburn when we have the sips next week????

I'm not surprised that we are 2.5-point road favorites at Auburn. Dating back to a 27-24 home loss to Alabama on 11/25/23, Auburn has lost 8 of their last 9 Power 4 games, including 5 consecutive home losses to Power 4 teams. Auburn's only Power 4 win in that span is a 24-10 road win at Kentucky on 10/26. Also, Hugh Freeze is an atrocious 1-7 (1-6 SEC) in Power 4 home games, and his only Power 4 home win was a 27-13 win over Mississippi State on 10/28/2023.

Auburn has not allowed more than 31 points this season, but they have not scored more than 24 points in their last 9 games against Power 4 teams. In contrast, we have scored 33+ points in 4 of 7 games against Power 4 teams, including twice on the road. Other than allowing 44 points to South Carolina, we have never allowed more than 24 points all season. While Auburn has a -11 turnover margin (19 giveaways to 8 takeaways), we have a +4 turnover margin (14 takeaways to 11 giveaways) in turnover margin. Hopefully, we come out prepared and focused to play Auburn from the start.

However, the spread between 8-2 (5-1 SEC) Texas A&M and 4-6 (1-5 SEC) Auburn is just 2.5 points for several reasons. We lost 13-10 in our last road game at Auburn on 11/12/2022. That was a sold-out night game between two teams with identical 3-6 overall records, 1-5 SEC records, and 5-game losing streaks. Auburn had fired head coach Bryan Harsin 12 days earlier on 10/31/2022. Yet, Jimbo Fisher managed to lose to Cadillac Williams, who was only on his second game as Auburn interim head coach. Also, we got smoked by South Carolina 44-20 in our last night road game. In addition, Auburn is playing their final home game at night and needs to win out to reach bowl eligibility.

If we minimize penalties and turnovers, we will overcome the crowd noise to win this night road game. I am predicting a close 24-17 road win.

HTXag25 said:

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Your use of the word "bad" is misleading and inaccurate. A better word for both our passing game and SC's offense would be "average". There, I fixed it for you.

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"mediocre", just like the last 84 years...... there, I fixed it for you.

TX_Aggie37 said:

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NyAggie said:

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greg.w.h said:

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"If Texas A&M can win its final two games, it will finish 7-1 in conference play and earn the No. 1 seed in the SEC championship game. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas has a 78% chance to beat Texas A&M. The Longhorns have a 73% chance of finishing 7-1 in SEC play while the Aggies only have a 14% chance to finish 7-1."

Paywalled…but relevant text above.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/42466488/college-football-playoff-2024-week-13-bubble-watch-predictions

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Sips with a 78% chance to beat us at Kyle at night is horse poop

That game is a coin flip that the Ags are going to win

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Objectively speaking, Texas is a really bad matchup for us. Offensively, their plan is to get the ball to guys in space with misdirection and the quick game. Ewers has one of the lowest ADOT (average depth of target) in Power 4 football. They test the discipline and integrity of a defense, and force you to tackle in space. We have not been great in that regard.

On defense, they have as athletic a front 7 as we'll see including South Carolina. I suspect our plan is going to be to try and grind it out and shorten the game, keeping their offense on the sideline. To do that, Reed will have to be able to make some throws and extend some drives.

We absolutely can win that game at home, but if we dig ourselves in a hole early I fear we won't be able to get back in it.

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I like the fact that ewers folds like a cheap suit when you hit him, plus Georgia was able to obliterate their oline

I like that matchup for us and I think Elko will have a good game plan to snuff out the short stuff and our defense will be fired up and flying around

On offense I think we can do enough to win a slugfest

Either way, there's no way tu is that much better than us that they have a 78% chance to beat us at our house

They are a good team but not invincible like 2020 bama

Not even close

Many of us have watched enough Aggie football in our lifetimes to know better.

aglaes said:

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Auburn offensive scoring against teams with a pulse:
Cal - 14
Arky - 14
Oklahoma - 21
Geogia - 13
Missouri - 17
Kentucky - 24 (the only win in this list)
Vandy - 7

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2023
Alabama (home) - 24
Maryland (Music City Bowl) -13

2024
Cal (home) - 14
Arkansas (home) - 14
Oklahoma (home) - 21
Georgia (away) - 13
Missouri (away) - 17
Kentucky (away) - 24 (their only win in their last 9 games against Power 4 teams)
Vanderbilt (home) - 7

Dating back to a 27-24 home loss to Alabama on 11/25/23, Auburn has not scored more than 24 points in any of their last 9 games against Power 4 teams. As a result, they have lost 8 of their last 9 games against Power 4 teams, including 5 straight at home. For these reasons, I am predicting a close 24-17 road win.

HTXag25 said:

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Do you think that's because we are a "bad" team or the fact that for all of our games leading up to SC we gave the ball to Moss and let him do his thing behind our strong O line. Or even the fact that our offense is more focused on running the ball rather than passing it because it has worked very well this season and its how Klein likes to run his offense. Passing yards a game and attempt don't determine a teams entire success. To think we are incapable of passing the ball and that we have a "bad" passing game is just you trying to be negative so you don't give your hopes up when the Ags inevitably disappoint you, rather than being optimistic.

It will be a good game and it will be a close game. But there is no reason to see our team as some incapable dumpster fire of an offense. In case you forgot we are 8-2 with an undertalented WR core, a QB we didn't think would be leading our offense 3 months ago and 2 scholarship RBs on the roster.

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Because our QB play has been suspect this year. Reed is solid at the shorter throws, but over about 10 yards and his ability to hit receivers drops significantly.

Our receivers haven't been other-wordly this year. I'd posit our running game is good because it had to be good as our passing game hasn't been up to par. Weigman and Reed have both had below average years.

We SHOULD win this game handily

But I've seen A&M lose this exact type of game many times to an inferior team over the years.

A lot of people are worried Auburn will do to us what USCe did to us. The major difference is Sellers>>Thorne, so I'm not AS worried about the Auburn offense. Having said that, I think we will need to score at least 24 pts to win.

I agree with OP for most part. Please stop comparing Auburn to SC. I said it then, if you watch SC and compare to other teams they are a top 15 team disguised at 5-3. You see they are now 7-3 and likely to go 9-3 (top 15). Auburn is nowhere close to SC.

That being said, we are no where close to A&M team with Moss vs A&M team without Moss given the limited time we have seen that. So that gives me pause.

The 2nd thing that gives me pause is I disagree with posters that rank them with OU, Kentucky, and Miss St. I think they are better than those teams. They dominated OU until last 2 minutes. I think Auburn is closer to Florida than they are those 3 teams.

They are a 1-5 team that has been within 7 going into 4th quarter of all their games. I think they are similar to what Aggies have been the last 2-3 years. Talented enough to beat you but inexperienced and do not know how to win close games.

I think Ags win 20-17 and feel very confident but still have some nerves.

Batty said:

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South Carolina says hello

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South Carolina is a few bad calls away from being 7-1 in the SEC.

Can't believe the only acceptable answer hasn't been posted yet!?!?

bearcat said:

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I agree with OP for most part. Please stop comparing Auburn to SC. I said it then, if you watch SC and compare to other teams they are a top 15 team disguised at 5-3. You see they are now 7-3 and likely to go 9-3 (top 15). Auburn is nowhere close to SC.

That being said, we are no where close to A&M team with Moss vs A&M team without Moss given the limited time we have seen that. So that gives me pause.

The 2nd thing that gives me pause is I disagree with posters that rank them with OU, Kentucky, and Miss St. I think they are better than those teams. They dominated OU until last 2 minutes. I think Auburn is closer to Florida than they are those 3 teams.

They are a 1-5 team that has been within 7 going into 4th quarter of all their games. I think they are similar to what Aggies have been the last 2-3 years. Talented enough to beat you but inexperienced and do not know how to win close games.

I think Ags win 20-17 and feel very confident but still have some nerves.

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Not sure how you can "feel very confident" with a prediction of a 3 pt win. 1 bad play screws that up.

Aggie said:

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Said it before and will say again...as of right now Auburn, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Mississippi State are of no threat to any team in the top half of the SEC Standings

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WHERE IS SPREADSHEETAG?????

NoahAg said:

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-Road game

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We've won two of those, one of them against a better team.

Quote:

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-Our passing game is bad

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It's not the best it's ever been, but it's not bad. Reed has 65% completions two weeks in a row. Take away Conner's abysmal performances and we are average at worst in the SEC passing and likely only have 1 loss.

Quote:

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-Our best RB is out

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Yes, and our backup has been very good every game he's played. As long as he's healthy, we're fine. And we have a mobile QB against a bad defense to keep them honest.

Quote:

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-A "bad" SC offense embarrassed us

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Mainly due to a mobile QB and us missing tackles. Alarming for sure, but Auburn doesn't have a mobile QB and it's extremely unlikely we miss that many tackles again.


Long story short, your list is absolute ass. Nut up.

carl spacklers hat said:

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WHERE IS SPREADSHEETAG?????

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After USCjr game he's probably living under an I-35 bridge and cooking weiners over an open fire

Texas 8&4 is a curse that must be broken. We've broken several, but the BAS is too stronk to be comfortable.

gunan01 said:

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We SHOULD win this game handily

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Literally no one thinks that, bud.

I agree we should win if we are a serious team

but we are down RB1 and RB2, 1 starting WR just went down and we weren't very deep there, OL battling injuries too, oh and our QB situation is... developing. If Marcel can take care of the ball and Daniels plays well then we should cruise to victory

but I think most would look at our offense and not be sure what to make of it at this point. Auburn is viewed as a solid defensive team so its looking like a close grind of a game at least on the outside (not sure I agree with the narative)

EDIT: Plus it's a night game on the road in the SEC, Kiffin is right about the favorable win ratio

jturner181 said:

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You talking to the 90% of us who know we have the better team and know we can win this week?

or the 10% who whine about every little thing that triggers their insecurities?

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i'm in the 90% but having been around on Dec 6, 1975 I'll always be leery.

I'm scared of every game for the rest of year only because

The Moose is loose

Having said that, are they really that much different from their team last year that finished 6-6? Little better offensive productivity but we beat them with Max freaking Johnson and Jimbo. Sure we had Moss but they're sitting at 4-6 with their best hope is to get to se record last year.

A team like that, you gotta take their confidence away early. Not sure our offense can do that without Moss but I hope so.

Longer you let them hang around at home the better chance they fight.

SteveA said:

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Because watched the SC game.

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What does No.18 SC that is 7-3 have in common with 4-6 Auburn that has lost to Cal, Vandy, Arkansas, OU, and Mizzou? Auburn is garbage.

Numbers say Auburn is better than record. Scoring D is great. They have just bogged down in red zone a bunch. Would not be surprised if they fixed some issues against us. I think this will be tougher game than most people think.

Because it's that mentality, thinking we are better than we are, that gets us beat… time after time!

The Fightin' Texas Aggies always play better with a chip!

BTHO Auburn!!!… and tu forever!!!

Nino Brown said:

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Having said that, are they really that much different from their team last year that finished 6-6? Little better offensive productivity but we beat them with Max freaking Johnson and Jimbo. Sure we had Moss but they're sitting at 4-6 with their best hope is to get to se record last year.

A team like that, you gotta take their confidence away early. Not sure our offense can do that without Moss but I hope so.

Longer you let them hang around at home the better chance they fight.

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I agree we need to come out and play well early

We ca t let them get an early lead on us so they gain confidence

Gotta get up On them early and make them start to feel the here we go again we are going to lose feeling

But I've seen this movie many times before where we go on the road and allow an inferior team to hang around and make a game of it and then we either escape by a whisker or get bit

Well they haven't fixed their issues to this point given their home loss to Vandy this month and only scored 7 points.

#13 defense in the country. On the road. At night. Concerning.

Because historically this is the kind of game that A&M has lost.

NyAggie said:

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greg.w.h said:

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"If Texas A&M can win its final two games, it will finish 7-1 in conference play and earn the No. 1 seed in the SEC championship game. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas has a 78% chance to beat Texas A&M. The Longhorns have a 73% chance of finishing 7-1 in SEC play while the Aggies only have a 14% chance to finish 7-1."

Paywalled…but relevant text above.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/42466488/college-football-playoff-2024-week-13-bubble-watch-predictions

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Sips with a 78% chance to beat us at Kyle at night is horse poop

That game is a coin flip that the Ags are going to win

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One opinion v. another…

RUGuys4Real said:

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What would it take for Aggie's to get over this BAS thing?
Nothing would surprise me with these last 2 games, we're ahead of schedule.
Just keep progressing and recruiting!

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Winning the whole thing or years of consistently being in the mix to win it then finally winning the whole thing. Holding the final trophy is the only cure.

saw em off said:

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Auburn sucks this year and if we are anywhere worthy of the CFP or much less, the SEC Champ game like we're thinking we are, then this game should be a non-issue. SC was different because they gave some top teams a scare.

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BAS

Aggie said:

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Said it before and will say again...as of right now Auburn, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Mississippi State are of no threat to any team in the top half of the SEC Standings

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Ole Miss raises their hand.