How well do we run the ball without Moss?

Amari better than avg., but not a 20 carry RB and need him also for tu game. RB depth remains an issue, but glad to finally see CK use double TE in vertical seam passing attack (a stable of KSU offense of yesteryear). Means we showed that card for Aub to think that a double TE set isn't just a passing formation as it's been for 80% of the season.

Mr. Fingerbottom said:

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Yea the clock ran out on this shtick after we got destroyed by scar

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Oh cmon, 11 people starred this?

Yeah I don't see us losing this game outside of an epic collapse and disastrous turn of events. If we play a somewhat clean game we should bring home the dub.

This could also be because Elko has been issuing a solid dose of the BAS cure.

Been waiting on this. I agree but I can easily talk myself into a loss. This isn't anywhere close to walking in to SC. Freeze is really good though at finding the edges in the run game which is always Elkos weakness on Defense. Play solid ball and we should win pulling away in 4th.

jturner181 said:

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1-2 turnovers our direction and we win by 2-3 TD's.

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This is really all I'm hoping for. Early turnovers in our favor where we score points. Do that, and we kill any chance at momentum and a rousing season capper for them.

The opposite and it could be like South Carolina two years ago. I don't trust any road games in the SEC.

We give up too many big plays, don't tackle well, and don't defend edge well to hold Auburn to under 10 points.

On flip side, we struggle with consistency on offense on rarely get big plays down field.

I'll take any win!!! I still think this game is going to be harder than most people think.

More like 28-17 IMHO

Our keys to winning:

-limit those crushing explosives plays on D especially on the perimeters

-tackle well (main reason we lost at SC)

-stop running up the middle on 3rd and 4th and short. Not sure why we keep doing this but it keeps failing.

-at worst be -1 on TOs. Anything more than that in a hostile night game sec environment is asking for a loss.

These aren't difficult things to do but are we good and mature enough to do them is the question

Avoid penalties that kill our drives and extend their drives.

Eliminate turnovers And special teams breakdowns on punting and kick returns.

Crush their souls.

It would be great if we didn't let them score in the first 2 minutes.

I am surprised we are only favored by 2.5 points against a 4-6 team,

There are several trends that indicate we should win this road game by double digits.

1. Dating back to a 27-24 home loss to Alabama on 11/25/23, Auburn has lost 8 of their last 9 Power 4 games, including 5 consecutive home losses to Power 4 teams. Auburn's only Power 4 win in that span is a 24-10 road win at Kentucky on 10/26.

2. Hugh Freeze is an atrocious 1-7 (1-6 SEC) in Power 4 home games, and his only Power 4 home win was a 27-13 win over Mississippi State on 10/28/2023.

3. Auburn has not scored more than 24 points in their last 9 games against Power 4 teams.

4. We have scored 33+ points in 4 of our 7 games against Power 4 teams, including twice on the road.

5. Besides allowing 44 points to South Carolina, we had not allowed more than 24 points in any other game.

6. While Auburn has a -11 turnover margin (19 giveaways to 8 takeaways), we have a +4 turnover margin (14 takeaways to 11 giveaways) in turnover margin.

However, the spread between 8-2 (5-1 SEC) Texas A&M and 4-6 (1-5 SEC) Auburn is just 2.5 points for several reasons.

1. We lost 13-10 in our last road game at Auburn on 11/12/2022. That was a sold-out night game between two teams with identical 3-6 overall records, 1-5 SEC records, and 5-game losing streaks. Auburn had fired head coach Bryan Harsin 12 days earlier on 10/31/2022. Yet, Jimbo Fisher managed to lose to Cadillac Williams, who was only on his second game as Auburn interim head coach.

2. We got smoked by South Carolina 44-20 in our last night road game.

3. Auburn is playing their final home game at night and needs to win out to reach bowl eligibility.

4. Auburn has not allowed more than 31 points all season, and that was in a road game at Georgia.

5. Auburn has not allowed more than 27 points at home. Oklahoma needed a pick-six to reach 27 points. Cal and Arkansas each forced 5 Auburn turnovers, but neither team managed to score more than 24 points against Auburn.

Hopefully, we come out prepared and focused to play Auburn from the start. If we minimize penalties and turnovers, we should overcome the crowd noise to win this night road game. I am predicting a close 24-17 road win.

23-20 Ags

Tanker123 said:

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I am surprised we are only favored by 2.5 points against a 4-6 team,

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I am not surprised we are favored by only 2.5 points.

1. We lost 13-10 in our last road game at Auburn on 11/12/2022. That was a sold-out night game between two teams with identical 3-6 overall records, 1-5 SEC records, and 5-game losing streaks. Auburn had fired head coach Bryan Harsin 12 days earlier on 10/31/2022. Yet, Jimbo Fisher managed to lose to Cadillac Williams, who was only on his second game as Auburn interim head coach.

2. We got smoked by South Carolina 44-20 in our last night road game.

3. Auburn is playing their final home game at night and needs to win out to reach bowl eligibility.

4. Auburn has not allowed more than 31 points all season, and that was in a road game at Georgia.

5. Auburn has not allowed more than 27 points at home. Oklahoma needed a pick-six to reach 27 points. Cal and Arkansas each forced 5 Auburn turnovers but neither team managed to score more than 24 points against Auburn.

Iraq2xVeteran said:

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Tanker123 said:

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I am surprised we are only favored by 2.5 points against a 4-6 team,

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I am not surprised we are favored by only 2.5 points.

1. We lost 13-10 in our last road game at Auburn on 11/12/2022. That was a sold-out night game between two teams with identical 3-6 overall records, 1-5 SEC records, and 5-game losing streaks. Auburn had fired head coach Bryan Harsin 12 days earlier on 10/31/2022. Yet, Jimbo Fisher managed to lose to Cadillac Williams, who was only on his second game as Auburn interim head coach.

2. We got smoked by South Carolina 44-20 in our last night road game.

3. Auburn is playing their final home game at night and needs to win out to reach bowl eligibility.

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This.

It's tough to win a road SEC game at night against pretty much any opponent, and especially one that has something to play for (bowl game).

I expect this to be a close game. Can't imagine us getting boat raced like we did at SCAR. But expect/hope that we pull it out.

We just don't have any RB depth to rely on the running game. We'll need a heavy dose or Marcel getting out of the pocket and using our TE's like we did in the first quarter against NMSU. There is a reason Elko and Klein introduced so much of them in that game.

A good balance of mixing in running game with Marcel's legs and the TE's should give the WR's a chance to make some plays.

northeastag said:

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Iraq2xVeteran said:

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Tanker123 said:

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I am surprised we are only favored by 2.5 points against a 4-6 team,

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I am not surprised we are favored by only 2.5 points.

1. We lost 13-10 in our last road game at Auburn on 11/12/2022. That was a sold-out night game between two teams with identical 3-6 overall records, 1-5 SEC records, and 5-game losing streaks. Auburn had fired head coach Bryan Harsin 12 days earlier on 10/31/2022. Yet, Jimbo Fisher managed to lose to Cadillac Williams, who was only on his second game as Auburn interim head coach.

2. We got smoked by South Carolina 44-20 in our last night road game.

3. Auburn is playing their final home game at night and needs to win out to reach bowl eligibility.

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This.

It's tough to win a road SEC game at night against pretty much any opponent, and especially one that has something to play for (bowl game).

I expect this to be a close game. Can't imagine us getting boat raced like we did at SCAR. But expect/hope that we pull it out.

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Me too. There are two other trends that are making the spread much closer than it should be.

4. Auburn has not allowed more than 31 points all season, and that was in a road game at Georgia.

5. Auburn has not allowed more than 27 points at home. Oklahoma needed a pick-six to reach 27 points. Cal and Arkansas each forced 5 Auburn turnovers but neither team managed to score more than 24 points against Auburn.

Iraq2xVeteran said:

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Tanker123 said:

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I am surprised we are only favored by 2.5 points against a 4-6 team,

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I am not surprised we are favored by only 2.5 points.

1. We lost 13-10 in our last road game at Auburn on 11/12/2022. That was a sold-out night game between two teams with identical 3-6 overall records, 1-5 SEC records, and 5-game losing streaks. Auburn had fired head coach Bryan Harsin 12 days earlier on 10/31/2022. Yet, Jimbo Fisher managed to lose to Cadillac Williams, who was only on his second game as Auburn interim head coach.

2. We got smoked by South Carolina 44-20 in our last night road game.

3. Auburn is playing their final home game at night and needs to win out to reach bowl eligibility.

4. Auburn has not allowed more than 31 points all season, and that was in a road game at Georgia.

5. Auburn has not allowed more than 27 points at home. Oklahoma needed a pick-six to reach 27 points. Cal and Arkansas each forced 5 Auburn turnovers but neither team managed to score more than 24 points against Auburn.

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Great analysis.

One thing I'll say about the Scar game. We lost the linchpin of our offense early in the game. We have had an opportunity to make adjustments now and that should work in our favor .

Win the turnover battle and I think we'll win vs Auburn. Don't care if it's by 1 pt or 21 pts. My bp will be healthier tomorrow night if it's closer to the latter tho.