Best chances to make the College Football Playoff after week 11 according to the ESPN FPI🏆 pic.twitter.com/PVIv0uT44X

— On3 (@On3sports) November 12, 2024

aginresearch said:

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Some time after 10:00 PM Nov 30th our chance will jump to 100%.

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Sadly that's not true. Lose decisively in the seccg and I think we are out .

Fake power indexes are for stupid gamblers…price me wrong.

Sip media makes up sip news.

Bill Superman said:

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merch said:

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Odds seem about right to me.

To make playoff, team has to win at Auburn, beat top 5 Texas team, and then beat another highly ranked team in SEC championship. A tall order for any team.

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Win the next 3 games and we're in. They've already said they're not punishing a team for making the SEC championship game.

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When did they say that?

In-between Kansas State and South Carolina.

On3 on X: "Best chances to make the College Football Playoff after week 11 according to the ESPN FPI https://t.co/PVIv0uT44X" / X

They're going to be so sad when Sips lose to us and we're auto in the playoffs, and Sips have to try convincing people they deserve in the playoff over either Georgia or Alabama or Ole Miss. NOBODY is going to buy it. And only 4 SEC teams are getting in, unless they only give Big10 3 teams (ACC still only 1 and ND stealing 1) and make the Sips the 5th team out of the SEC.

merch said:

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Odds seem about right to me.

To make playoff, team has to win at Auburn, beat top 5 Texas team, and then beat another highly ranked team in SEC championship. A tall order for any team.

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why do you keep saying that dumb sht? All we got to do is beat Auburn & Sips.

Ag Tag said:

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In-between Kansas State and South Carolina.

On3 on X: "Best chances to make the College Football Playoff after week 11 according to the ESPN FPI https://t.co/PVIv0uT44X" / X

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"FPI" Lmao. The most meaningless metric known to man.

Link?

I've not heard that. I've seen discussion not using conference championships as tiebreakers….but that isn't the scenario at issue.

lol. Odds. Yeah okay - just make numbers up and post it on the internet.

Don't Georgia and Tennessee play each other?

If Georgia loses that game, they will go from >70% to close to 0%.

Tennessee would still be alive if they lose but at a much lower probability than 70%

Mizzou is IN the HUNT!
Yep, I said it!

Ag1188 said:

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merch said:

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Odds seem about right to me.

To make playoff, team has to win at Auburn, beat top 5 Texas team, and then beat another highly ranked team in SEC championship. A tall order for any team.

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why do you keep saying that dumb sht? All we got to do is beat Auburn & Sips.

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The other thing that does not appear to be reflected in those numbers is any of the 2-loss SEC teams will be essentially eliminated from the playoffs if they lose another game in the regular season. That means Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss have to win their remaining games to have any chance because 9-3 SEC team that doesn't even make the CCG should not get in ahead of a 10-3 A&M team that loses the CCG but yet we are at 14% and those teams are way higher.

Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

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aginresearch said:

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Some time after 10:00 PM Nov 30th our chance will jump to 100%.

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Sadly that's not true. Lose decisively in the seccg and I think we are out .

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I bet you are a hoot at parties!

BYU and SMU are both going to get curb stomped if they get in.

All these Texas Aggie CFP likelihood estimates are based on others' assessments of the likelihood that the Ags beat tu on the 30th.

Nothing more. Nothing less.

They don't believe we can do it.

I believe we will do it - AFTER we take care of business against NM State this weekend the at Auburn the following Saturday.

We win these next three games and it is 95% that we are IN the CFP - with the remaining 5% chance we don't make it only coming into play if we are somehow embarrassed by our opponent in the SEC Championship Game.

aginresearch said:

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We are winning the SEC championship game.

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.... and, my dead aunt is going to grow a pair of balls and become my uncle !

Seems legit to me except I'm surprised how high Bama is. Not after analysis, just because they seem to be having an Off for Bama year

Either a troll or an absolutely terrible fan

Aggie_Nuke said:

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aginresearch said:

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We are winning the SEC championship game.

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.... and, my dead aunt is going to grow a pair of balls and become my uncle !

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Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

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aginresearch said:

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Some time after 10:00 PM Nov 30th our chance will jump to 100%.

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Sadly that's not true. Lose decisively in the seccg and I think we are out .

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So making the SECCG can knock us out of the playoffs?

Muy said:

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Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

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aginresearch said:

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Some time after 10:00 PM Nov 30th our chance will jump to 100%.

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Sadly that's not true. Lose decisively in the seccg and I think we are out .

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So making the SECCG can knock us out of the playoffs?

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Not necessarily but right now with the B10 getting 4 in almost assuredly I think with a decisive loss in that game we absolutely get left out. A close loss and we have a shot but certainly not assured. The math to allow 12 in the playoff, 4 from the B10, and a 3 loss SECCG loser doesn't work very well.

ESPN FI gives us only a 14.3% of making the playoffs because it gives us a 61.9% chance to win a road game at Texas, but just a 22.8% chance to win a home game against Texas at home. We control our own destiny by winning out.

Auburn has lost 5 consecutive Power 4 home games to Alabama, Cal, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt. Also, Hugh Freeze is 1-7 in Power 4 home games, and his only Power 4 home win was a 27-13 win over Mississippi State on 10/28/2023. Auburn's only Power 4 win of the season is a 24-10 road win at Kentucky on 10/26. For these reasons, we will probably be a double-digit road favorite at Auburn.

Still, the road game at Auburn is a trap game because we will probably be double-digit road favorites, and it comes before the Lone Star State rivalry showdown with Texas at Kyle Field. If win beat Auburn, we will return to Kyle Field with a 9-2 (6-1 SEC) record and be playing Texas for both an SEC Championship Game appearance and a playoff appearance.

I think we will find out with SMU. I do t see how Miami stops SMU from scoring 40 plus points so…I would take SMU to beat Miami.

Ag1188 said:

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They're going to be so sad when Sips lose to us and we're auto in the playoffs, and Sips have to try convincing people they deserve in the playoff over either Georgia or Alabama or Ole Miss. NOBODY is going to buy it. And only 4 SEC teams are getting in, unless they only give Big10 3 teams (ACC still only 1 and ND stealing 1) and make the Sips the 5th team out of the SEC.

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You think, in that scenario, they put Ole Miss in over sippy?

Highly unlikely.

aginresearch said:

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We are winning the SEC championship game.

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Forgive me...and my BAS, but in what year?

Doubledown 2447 said:

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Seems legit to me except I'm surprised how high Bama is. Not after analysis, just because they seem to be having an Off for Bama year

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They probably don't play anyone with a pulse the rest of the way and a 2-loss Bama team gets in every time.