Doubledown 2447 said:
Seems legit to me except I'm surprised how high Bama is. Not after analysis, just because they seem to be having an Off for Bama year
But then explain the Georgia and Tennessee numbers. Georgia has lost 2 of 3 "big boy" games so far. If they lose to Tennessee, their chances go to virtually zero (or at least they should for losing 3 of 4 to the big boys). With how they have done to date this season, would you give them a >70% confidence of beating Tennessee?Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:
All these Texas Aggie CFP likelihood estimates are based on others' assessments of the likelihood that the Ags beat tu on the 30th.
Nothing more. Nothing less.
They don't believe we can do it.
I believe we will do it - AFTER we take care of business against NM State this weekend the at Auburn the following Saturday.
We win these next three games and it is 95% that we are IN the CFP - with the remaining 5% chance we don't make it only coming into play if we are somehow embarrassed by our opponent in the SEC Championship Game.
Iraq2xVeteran said:
ESPN FI gives us only a 14.3% of making the playoffs because it gives us a 61.9% chance to win a road game at Texas, but just a 22.8% chance to win a home game against Texas at home. We control our own destiny by winning out.
Auburn has lost 5 consecutive Power 4 home games to Alabama, Cal, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt. Also, Hugh Freeze is 1-7 in Power 4 home games, and his only Power 4 home win was a 27-13 win over Mississippi State on 10/28/2023. Auburn's only Power 4 win of the season is a 24-10 road win at Kentucky on 10/26. For these reasons, we will probably be a double-digit road favorite at Auburn.
Still, the road game at Auburn is a trap game because we will probably be double-digit road favorites, and it comes before the Lone Star State rivalry showdown with Texas at Kyle Field. If win beat Auburn, we will return to Kyle Field with a 9-2 (6-1 SEC) record and be playing Texas for both an SEC Championship Game appearance and a playoff appearance.
NyAggie said:Iraq2xVeteran said:
ESPN FI gives us only a 14.3% of making the playoffs because it gives us a 61.9% chance to win a road game at Texas, but just a 22.8% chance to win a home game against Texas at home. We control our own destiny by winning out.
Auburn has lost 5 consecutive Power 4 home games to Alabama, Cal, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt. Also, Hugh Freeze is 1-7 in Power 4 home games, and his only Power 4 home win was a 27-13 win over Mississippi State on 10/28/2023. Auburn's only Power 4 win of the season is a 24-10 road win at Kentucky on 10/26. For these reasons, we will probably be a double-digit road favorite at Auburn.
Still, the road game at Auburn is a trap game because we will probably be double-digit road favorites, and it comes before the Lone Star State rivalry showdown with Texas at Kyle Field. If win beat Auburn, we will return to Kyle Field with a 9-2 (6-1 SEC) record and be playing Texas for both an SEC Championship Game appearance and a playoff appearance.
That tu game could be the most high stakes one ever between the two programs, but wouldn't it be the way if we went out and Aggie'd it up by losing to Auburn
Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:NyAggie said:Iraq2xVeteran said:
ESPN FI gives us only a 14.3% of making the playoffs because it gives us a 61.9% chance to win a road game at Texas, but just a 22.8% chance to win a home game against Texas at home. We control our own destiny by winning out.
Auburn has lost 5 consecutive Power 4 home games to Alabama, Cal, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt. Also, Hugh Freeze is 1-7 in Power 4 home games, and his only Power 4 home win was a 27-13 win over Mississippi State on 10/28/2023. Auburn's only Power 4 win of the season is a 24-10 road win at Kentucky on 10/26. For these reasons, we will probably be a double-digit road favorite at Auburn.
Still, the road game at Auburn is a trap game because we will probably be double-digit road favorites, and it comes before the Lone Star State rivalry showdown with Texas at Kyle Field. If win beat Auburn, we will return to Kyle Field with a 9-2 (6-1 SEC) record and be playing Texas for both an SEC Championship Game appearance and a playoff appearance.
That tu game could be the most high stakes one ever between the two programs, but wouldn't it be the way if we went out and Aggie'd it up by losing to Auburn
...or to NM State (not gonna happen).
Losing on the road to Auburn (after almost everyone who has played there this year beat the Tigers) would be a nightmare and the ultimate choke job!
Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:NyAggie said:Iraq2xVeteran said:
ESPN FI gives us only a 14.3% of making the playoffs because it gives us a 61.9% chance to win a road game at Texas, but just a 22.8% chance to win a home game against Texas at home. We control our own destiny by winning out.
Auburn has lost 5 consecutive Power 4 home games to Alabama, Cal, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt. Also, Hugh Freeze is 1-7 in Power 4 home games, and his only Power 4 home win was a 27-13 win over Mississippi State on 10/28/2023. Auburn's only Power 4 win of the season is a 24-10 road win at Kentucky on 10/26. For these reasons, we will probably be a double-digit road favorite at Auburn.
Still, the road game at Auburn is a trap game because we will probably be double-digit road favorites, and it comes before the Lone Star State rivalry showdown with Texas at Kyle Field. If win beat Auburn, we will return to Kyle Field with a 9-2 (6-1 SEC) record and be playing Texas for both an SEC Championship Game appearance and a playoff appearance.
That tu game could be the most high stakes one ever between the two programs, but wouldn't it be the way if we went out and Aggie'd it up by losing to Auburn
...or to NM State (not gonna happen).
Losing on the road to Auburn (after almost everyone who has played there this year beat the Tigers) would be a nightmare and the ultimate choke job!
Would def not be a great sign for Elko being a different breed of coach around here.
Regardless of the team, the thought of a 3-loss team making the playoffs is dumb.Bill Superman said:Win the next 3 games and we're in. They've already said they're not punishing a team for making the SEC championship game.merch said:
Odds seem about right to me.
To make playoff, team has to win at Auburn, beat top 5 Texas team, and then beat another highly ranked team in SEC championship. A tall order for any team.
JROD9398 said:Forgive me...and my BAS, but in what year?aginresearch said:
We are winning the SEC championship game.
Have you watching either of these teams play a game? Average implies these team deserve a ranking somewhere between 55th - 80th best (earned) ranking in the country. This is absolutely not the case. The metrics that are used are as accurate as we have. It's the eye test that is 1 of the variants.The Banned said:
Can't wait for the facade of the "power 4" to go away. SMU? BYU? They are both so incredibly average but can earn auto bids. Insane
terrible fan ? What is it about the last 84+ years of mediocrity that leads you to believe we're going to win the SEC Championship ? I've witnessed 55 of those years, including the only conference championship (Big 12) we've had since my freshman year in 1969.Doubledown 2447 said:
Either a troll or an absolutely terrible fanAggie_Nuke said:.... and, my dead aunt is going to grow a pair of balls and become my uncle !aginresearch said:
We are winning the SEC championship game.
1939 said:
Just beat NMSt, Auburn and t.u.
We don't have to win the SEC Championship game
The Banned said:
Can't wait for the facade of the "power 4" to go away. SMU? BYU? They are both so incredibly average but can earn auto bids. Insane
Emilio Fantastico said:But then explain the Georgia and Tennessee numbers. Georgia has lost 2 of 3 "big boy" games so far. If they lose to Tennessee, their chances go to virtually zero (or at least they should for losing 3 of 4 to the big boys). With how they have done to date this season, would you give them a >70% confidence of beating Tennessee?Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:
All these Texas Aggie CFP likelihood estimates are based on others' assessments of the likelihood that the Ags beat tu on the 30th.
Nothing more. Nothing less.
They don't believe we can do it.
I believe we will do it - AFTER we take care of business against NM State this weekend the at Auburn the following Saturday.
We win these next three games and it is 95% that we are IN the CFP - with the remaining 5% chance we don't make it only coming into play if we are somehow embarrassed by our opponent in the SEC Championship Game.
And in 2020, we were supposed to be in the playoffs over Ohio State and Notre Dame.Bill Superman said:Win the next 3 games and we're in. They've already said they're not punishing a team for making the SEC championship game.merch said:
Odds seem about right to me.
To make playoff, team has to win at Auburn, beat top 5 Texas team, and then beat another highly ranked team in SEC championship. A tall order for any team.
Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:aginresearch said:
Some time after 10:00 PM Nov 30th our chance will jump to 100%.
Sadly that's not true. Lose decisively in the seccg and I think we are out .
aginresearch said:
Some time after 10:00 PM Nov 30th our chance will jump to 100%.
It was one of those handshake deals.merch said:
Link?
I've not heard that. I've seen discussion not using conference championships as tiebreakers….but that isn't the scenario at issue.
