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Every SEC Tiebreaker Scenario at 7-1

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TnAg23
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2:33p, 10/31/24
AG
I know, I know, just win out. If we are 8-0 or 6-2, none of what I say below matters, but we're officially close enough to talk about clinching scenarios.

TL/DR: We get in in almost every scenario at 7-1. Cheer for LSU and Tennessee, against tu and Georgia.

Relevant Teams/Remaining Schedules
A&M: South Carolina, Auburn, tu
Georgia: Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Texas: Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky, A&M
Tennessee: Kentucky, MS State, Georgia, Vanderbilt
LSU: Bama, Florida, Vandy, Oklahoma

1. We Lose to SC OR Auburn and BTHO Texas
tu is not in the picture at 6-2

A. LSU Doesn't Win Out
  • I - Tennessee Beats Georgia. No Tiebreaker. A&M / Tennessee are only 7-1 Teams.
  • II - Georgia Beats Tennessee. No Tiebreaker. A&M / Georgia are only 7-1 Teams.
B. LSU Wins Out
  • I - Tennessee Beat Georgia. A&M / LSU by record vs common conference opponents(Arkansas / Florida)
  • II - Georgia Beats Tennessee. A&M / LSU by Conference SOS*

In other words, we make it in every scenario at 7-1 if we beat tu.

2. We Beat SC/Auburn and lost to tu

A. LSU Doesn't Win Out

  • I - Tennessee Beats Georgia. A&M / Texas by record vs common conference opponents(Arkansas / Florida / Mississippi State) over Tennessee
  • II - Georgia Beats Tennessee. Georgia / Texas Georgia wins by Conference SOS*, Texas 2nd by h2h win over A&M.
  • III - Georgia Beats Tennessee, but Loses to Ole Miss. No Tiebreaker. A&M / Texas are only 7-1 Teams.

B. LSU Wins Out

  • I - Tennessee Beat Georgia. A&M / LSU by record vs common conference opponents(Arkansas / Florida) over Tennessee and Conference SOS* over Texas
  • II - Georgia Beats Tennessee. A&M / LSU by Conference SOS* over Georgia / Texas


So in Summary, to keep a 7-1 A&M out of the SECCG
  • The 1 Loss must be to tu
  • tu must win out
  • Georgia must win out
  • LSU can't win out (Bama, Florida, Vandy, Oklahoma)

Individually, none of those 4 things seem impossible, but for all for of them to happen is relatively unlikely.


Clinching Scenerios:
  • We beat SC/Auburn and Georgia loses any game
  • We beat SC/Auburn and tu loses any game
  • We beat SC/Auburn and LSU wins out
  • We beat tu

*Conference SOS note: Obviously this could get whacky with random Vandy vs MS State Games, but we're way ahead of tu, and in the above scenarios, we'd only beat Georgia by Conference SOS in the scenarios where LSU wins out, in which case, we're way ahead of them too.
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YNWA.2013
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2:42p, 10/31/24
Someone else found this website that you can play with the different scenarios:

https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb
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greg.w.h
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2:51p, 10/31/24
AG
Wonder if playing with negative scenarios gives us control over the outcome???
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Detective Jake Peralta
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2:53p, 10/31/24
AG
FoCuS oN sOuTh CaRoLiNa


Jk, thanks for this OP! Can't wait til we get divisions back in some form or fashion and can put these stupid tiebreakers behind us.
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AggBock
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2:55p, 10/31/24
AG
Do we get a bye in playoffs if we win out and win SEC?
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marcbarnett
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2:56p, 10/31/24
Looking at 2-A-II, I think we still get in? Assuming that scenario, us, GA and tu are all 7-1, but have not all played each other, so the first tiebreaker (head to head) is ignored and goes to the next tiebreaker, which is conf SOS. We would have a stronger SOS than tu and thus get in, but be 2nd to GA based on on record against common opponents.
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cdowl38
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2:56p, 10/31/24
AG
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cdowl38
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In reply to AggBock • 2:56p, 10/31/24
AG
AggBock said:
Do we get a bye in playoffs if we win out and win SEC?
Yes and probably the #1 or #2 seed.
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agnatgas
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3:07p, 10/31/24
AG
Nice analysis. Some comments:

Tennessee's loss to Arkansas was a killer for the Vols.

While I generally agree with your SOS comments if things play out like they should, there's way too many conference games left (27) to assume that's going to happen.

In a four way tie, I estimate LSU opponents likely finishing at 32-32, A&M's at 29-35 and Georgia's at 28-36. Texas and Tennessee are further back at 25-39 and 24-40. That's a pretty tight grouping for a second place tiebreaker and there's a lot of football to play.

A&M needs to root for Missouri going forward as that is the only school that A&M will play this year that neither GA, TN, TX or LSU will play.

In short, root for the teams the Ags have played and root against the rest!

Gig 'em.
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TnAg23
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In reply to marcbarnett • 3:09p, 10/31/24
AG
marcbarnett said:
Looking at 2-A-II, I think we still get in? Assuming that scenario, us, GA and tu are all 7-1, but have not all played each other, so the first tiebreaker (head to head) is ignored and goes to the next tiebreaker, which is conf SOS. We would have a stronger SOS than tu and thus get in, but be 2nd to GA based on on record against common opponents.
Not quite, you are 90% right though.

In a three team tiebreaker, after any given step, no more than 2 groups will be formed.

For Example, let's say there is a 4 team tie where #1 and #2 are 2-0 vs common conference opponents, #3 is 1-1, and #4 is 0-2.

#1 and #2 are clear winners, but #3 and #4 would start the tiebreaker process over again.

In the A&M/tu/Georgia scenario, Georgia is the clear winner by Conference SOS, but then A&M and tu start the tiebreaker process over from the beginning.
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TnAg23
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In reply to AggBock • 3:10p, 10/31/24
AG
AggBock said:
Do we get a bye in playoffs if we win out and win SEC?
SEC Champion is guaranteed a bye
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cdowl38
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In reply to TnAg23 • 3:14p, 10/31/24
AG
TnAg23 said:
marcbarnett said:
Looking at 2-A-II, I think we still get in? Assuming that scenario, us, GA and tu are all 7-1, but have not all played each other, so the first tiebreaker (head to head) is ignored and goes to the next tiebreaker, which is conf SOS. We would have a stronger SOS than tu and thus get in, but be 2nd to GA based on on record against common opponents.
Not quite, you are 90% right though.

In a three team tiebreaker, after any given step, no more than 2 groups will be formed.

For Example, let's say there is a 4 team tie where #1 and #2 are 2-0 vs common conference opponents, #3 is 1-1, and #4 is 0-2.

#1 and #2 are clear winners, but #3 and #4 would start the tiebreaker process over again.

In the A&M/tu/Georgia scenario, Georgia is the clear winner by Conference SOS, but then A&M and tu start the tiebreaker process over from the beginning.
With three or more teams tied, once a tie breaker determines an outright winner or an outright loser, that team moves on or is eliminated and the remaining two teams start the tie breaker process over. Which means head to head first.
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marcbarnett
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In reply to TnAg23 • 3:14p, 10/31/24
My thinking is also that (based on favorites in future games) We would be tied with Georgia on conference SOS... of course difficult to predict. IF we're tied in SOS, it's us and GA. But if they've got a stronger SOS, then we do end up behind tu. Like you said, rooting for lsu!
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Iraq2xVeteran
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3:22p, 10/31/24
AG
Thank you for posting these SEC tiebreaking scenarios. Hopefully, we can beat South Carolina to extend our winning streak to 8 games and improve to 6-0 in SEC play. I think a road win at South Carolina will result in carrying a 10-game winning streak and a 10-1 (7-0 SEC) into the Texas game. If that happens, we might clinch an SEC Championship Game appearance before even playing Texas.
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cdowl38
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3:29p, 10/31/24
AG
I slightly adjusted the clinching scenarios because we need to beat both SC AND Auburn in the first three scenarios.

Clinching Scenarios:
  • We beat SC and Auburn and Georgia loses any game
  • We beat SC and Auburn and tu loses any game
  • We beat SC and Auburn and LSU wins out
  • We beat SC and tu
  • We beat Auburn and tu

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TnAg23
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In reply to cdowl38 • 3:35p, 10/31/24
AG
cdowl38 said:
I slightly adjusted the clinching scenarios because we need to beat both SC AND Auburn in the first three scenarios.

Clinching Scenarios:
  • We beat SC and Auburn and Georgia loses any game
  • We beat SC and Auburn and tu loses any game
  • We beat SC and Auburn and LSU wins out
  • We beat SC and tu
  • We beat Auburn and tu

This is correct, sorry if that wasn't clear
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OMB100GAS
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3:38p, 10/31/24
AG
Sorry if I didn't read it clearly, but what if

LSU doesn't win out
Georgia beats Tenn
Ole Miss beats Georgia
and we beat tu

tu rematch?
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Dank
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In reply to TnAg23 • 3:44p, 10/31/24
AG
According to mred's 2024 SEC FB Standings Tiebreaker if "chalk" holds and there is a 3 way tie @ 7-1 between Georgis, A&M, and Texas SEC SoS would be tied @ .4531 and Texas's would be lower @ .3594. Texas would be eliminated, Georgia would be above A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0 vs. A&M's 3-1) so UGA & A&M would meet in the SEC championship game.

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Dank
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In reply to OMB100GAS • 3:48p, 10/31/24
AG
IF I understand your scenario correctly, it would result in an 8-0 A&M and a 6 way tie for 2nd @ 6-2!!! A&M would obviously be in the SC CG, but It "could" result in Bama going to the CG...although that would probably depend on games you didn't think about.

That same scenario but we lose to Texas is one of the few scenarios where we would rematch in the SEC CG.
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cdowl38
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In reply to OMB100GAS • 3:49p, 10/31/24
AG
OMB100GAS said:
Sorry if I didn't read it clearly, but what if

LSU doesn't win out
Georgia beats Tenn
Ole Miss beats Georgia
and we beat tu

tu rematch?
Assuming the things above but nothing else crazy, there would be 6 teams at 6-2. So to rematch the sips they would have to win the 6-way tiebreaker.
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TnAg23
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In reply to OMB100GAS • 3:49p, 10/31/24
AG
OMB100GAS said:
Sorry if I didn't read it clearly, but what if

LSU doesn't win out
Georgia beats Tenn
Ole Miss beats Georgia
and we beat tu

tu rematch?
This is a crapshoot a a 2nd place tiebreaker. Glad it doesn't involve us. We'd be sitting at 1.

But most likely, out of nowhere, Bama.


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cdowl38
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In reply to TnAg23 • 3:51p, 10/31/24
AG
Bama winning a 6-way tie breaker to get to Atlanta:

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TnAg23
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In reply to Dank • 3:52p, 10/31/24
AG
Dank said:
According to mred's 2024 SEC FB Standings Tiebreaker if "chalk" holds and there is a 3 way tie @ 7-1 between Georgis, A&M, and Texas SEC SoS would be tied @ .4531 and Texas's would be lower @ .3594. Texas would be eliminated, Georgia would be above A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0 vs. A&M's 3-1) so UGA & A&M would meet in the SEC championship game.


This is relying on some no-name Vandy vs MS State type game. For Example, here is us not making it in the scenario you just played out.



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TexAgs23
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3:54p, 10/31/24
I love being in a position to control our own destiny!!!
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Dank
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3:54p, 10/31/24
AG
Every year about this time fans and media come up with all kinds of "what-if" scenarios with ties and all these undefeated teams...but they usually never happen.

However, with conference expansion, these scenarios don't seem so far fetched and in fact are plausible, if not likely. Things may (will probably) change in the future, but this year we'll probably need to get our calculators out
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TnAg23
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In reply to Dank • 3:56p, 10/31/24
AG
Dank said:
Every year about this time fans and media come up with all kinds of "what-if" scenarios with ties and all these undefeated teams...but they usually never happen.

However, with conference expansion, these scenarios don't seem so far fetched and in fact are plausible, if not likely. Things may (will probably) change in the future, but this year we'll probably need to get our calculators out
Yeah, some of them aren't very likely (The 7 way tie for 2nd)

But 3 or 4 tied for first in a 16 team conference without divisions is probably more likely than not
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TnAg23
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In reply to cdowl38 • 3:58p, 10/31/24
AG
cdowl38 said:
Bama winning a 6-way tie breaker to get to Atlanta:

Real question here is who TF you put in the playoffs

Screw it, us and 11 G5/B12/ACC/B10 teams
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BMX Bandit
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4:07p, 10/31/24
Quote:
We beat SC and Auburn and LSU wins out


This is not a for sure clinch. For example, if vandy beats SC, we would likely be out
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cdowl38
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In reply to BMX Bandit • 4:13p, 10/31/24
AG
BMX Bandit said:
Quote:
We beat SC and Auburn and LSU wins out


This is not a for sure clinch. For example, if vandy beats SC, we would likely be out
Even with Vandy beating SC, it has us winning a 4-way tie.

1. Texas A&M (7 - 1)
With LSU, above Georgia and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Above LSU based on head-to-head record (1-0).

2. LSU (7 - 1)
With Texas A&M, above Georgia and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Below Texas A&M based on head-to-head record (0-1).

3. Georgia (7 - 1)
With Texas, below LSU and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
Above Texas based on head-to-head record (1-0).

4. Texas (7 - 1)
With Georgia, below LSU and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375).
Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).
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TnAg23
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In reply to BMX Bandit • 4:20p, 10/31/24
AG
BMX Bandit said:
Quote:
We beat SC and Auburn and LSU wins out


This is not a for sure clinch. For example, if vandy beats SC, we would likely be out
Here is Vandy beating both SC and Auburn
And Ole Miss beating Arkansas and Florida (Bad for Us, Good for UGA)

aka, the worst I could think up



Our conference opponent win percentage is still 0.4375
UGA at 0.4219
tu at 0.3906



It's not close enough that a few silly upsets would kill us.

Edit: What you have to realize is that us and UGA play 4 of the same teams. So in it's really LSU, Mizzou, Arkansas, South Carolina for us vs Tennessee, Bama, Ole Miss, Kentucky for them.
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BMX Bandit
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In reply to cdowl38 • 4:22p, 10/31/24
Good catch

I still had lsu at 6-2
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cdowl38
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In reply to YNWA.2013 • 4:41p, 10/31/24
AG
YNWA.2013 said:
Someone else found this website that you can play with the different scenarios:

https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb
Imagine if this website wasn't the first post in this thread.

Everyone's hypotheticals would be so confusing and there would be so many arguments on what would happen.

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YNWA.2013
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In reply to cdowl38 • 4:45p, 10/31/24
Stunning contribution
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DartmouthAg
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5:33p, 10/31/24
Assuming 3 or 4-way ties at 7-1, having Florida as the common opponent, and having pushes involving the 7-1 teams' shared opponents in outstanding games; e.g., Miz/Ark and Miz/SC for A&M, or Vandy/OU for Texas, you can eliminate quite a few variables projecting overall respective SOS %. We definitely would benefit from LSU winning out and creating a 4-way tie, with a net gain of 2 over UGA by virtue of the presumed victory over Bama.

A 3-way tie with UGA and tu increases the Dawgs' odds of winning on SOS, with sip getting 2nd by virtue of beating us.

Regardless, I imagine all teams tied for first get CFP slots.
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Kansas Kid
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5:39p, 10/31/24
I haven't run the scenario but I really like our chances if we win out.
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