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2024 StatSim: Texas A&M vs South Carolina

12,757 Views | 89 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by PeekingDuck
SpreadsheetAg
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11:53a, 10/28/24
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Wolfpac 08
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11:54a, 10/28/24
Yikes
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jturner181
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11:55a, 10/28/24
Spot on... I have this game being 24-21... last second field goal by one of the teams!

Gonna be a fight unless we can get some turnovers with our quality secondary.
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OMB100GAS
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12:06p, 10/28/24
Not a chance they score like that. 24-13 ags
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TyperWoods
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12:07p, 10/28/24
Hopefully SC will be distracted by the Beamer to OU rumours
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AgLA06
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In reply to OMB100GAS • 12:07p, 10/28/24
OMB100GAS said:
Not a chance they score like that. 24-13 ags
Someone has to explain to me how they score. That's the part I don't understand.

Their offense is literally on the last page of the total offense rankings just above NM State.
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boyfriend
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12:12p, 10/28/24
A primetime game in a very hostile SEC environment, I hope we start fast like we did against Florida in the swamp. Their defense likes to get after the quarterback. We need to win the turnover battle in this one.
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vander54
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12:12p, 10/28/24
I looked at 4 different ways. I looked at what each school was doing overall and what each school was doing just in SEC play.

When I based everything off South Carolina I got 25-23 USC both times.

When I based it off A&Ms I got

Overall 23-7 A&M
SEC only 28-17 A&M

My gut says 31-17 A&M


But my analysis was super basic.
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LuoJi
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12:16p, 10/28/24
This formula is crazy aligned with what oddsmakers are using.
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Aggie Dad 26
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In reply to Wolfpac 08 • 12:27p, 10/28/24
Wolfpac 08 said:
Yikes

Wasn't expecting that projected outcome either
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Pizza
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In reply to AgLA06 • 12:30p, 10/28/24
AgLA06 said:
OMB100GAS said:
Not a chance they score like that. 24-13 ags
Someone has to explain to me how they score. That's the part I don't understand.

Their offense is literally on the last page of the total offense rankings just above NM State.


This is just a 1 game, over-simplified comparison, but they picked up 243 rushing yards against LSU, and we picked up 242 rushing yards against LSU.
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jsc8116
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12:34p, 10/28/24
I think the two keys that jump off the page and will determine who wins the game are:

1.Can our 102nd ranked pass D stop USCe 103rd ranked
pass O?

2.Can our 17th ranked rush O perform against USCe 15th ranked rush D?
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Matsui
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12:39p, 10/28/24
Should be another close one!
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GarryowenAg
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1:50p, 10/28/24
Looks like we're in for a slugfest. Let's hope we land more haymakers than them.
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OMB100GAS
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In reply to AgLA06 • 1:54p, 10/28/24
AgLA06 said:
OMB100GAS said:
Not a chance they score like that. 24-13 ags
Someone has to explain to me how they score. That's the part I don't understand.

Their offense is literally on the last page of the total offense rankings just above NM State.
And we have one of the best defenses in the nation.

I know SC has a good defensive front but their offense against our defense should not yield very many points
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OMB100GAS
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In reply to Pizza • 1:56p, 10/28/24
Trigon Jin said:
AgLA06 said:
OMB100GAS said:
Not a chance they score like that. 24-13 ags
Someone has to explain to me how they score. That's the part I don't understand.

Their offense is literally on the last page of the total offense rankings just above NM State.


This is just a 1 game, over-simplified comparison, but they picked up 243 rushing yards against LSU, and we picked up 242 rushing yards against LSU.

We have a better rushing offense than SC and LSU, and we have a better rushing defense than LSU and not that much worse than SC

It won't be easy but it also shouldn't be close
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NoahAg
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1:57p, 10/28/24
First to 9 points wins.
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Bobaloo
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1:59p, 10/28/24
Their D is tough. Very physical. Gonna be an SEC war!
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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2:00p, 10/28/24
turnovers and special teams will determine the winner of this game. south carolina in their wins have forced on average like 3-4 turnovers and in their losses they have committed multiple turnovers. they have a freshman qb who is mobile but can be deceived.

don't allow any special teams touchdowns, see 2022 and be at least tied on turnovers and i think we come away with the win.
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SpreadsheetAg
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2:10p, 10/28/24
They've allowed -23 yards rushing on 3rd downs all season.

However, when broken down, they make they're hay on 3rd and 4+

https://cfbstats.com/2024/team/648/rushing/defense/situational.html

(A lot of that is sack yardage, I assume)

We have to stay ahead of the chains

Here's our offensive rushing situational stats... we are pretty damn good on 3rd and 1-6 to go

https://cfbstats.com/2024/team/697/rushing/offense/situational.html
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P.U.T.U
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2:13p, 10/28/24
Crazy how much of a defensive and rushing team we have become.
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vander54
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 2:17p, 10/28/24
SpreadsheetAg said:
They've allowed -23 yards rushing on 3rd downs all season.

However, when broken down, they make they're hay on 3rd and 4+

https://cfbstats.com/2024/team/648/rushing/defense/situational.html

(A lot of that is sack yardage, I assume)

We have to stay ahead of the chains

Here's our offensive rushing situational stats... we are pretty damn good on 3rd and 1-6 to go

https://cfbstats.com/2024/team/697/rushing/offense/situational.html



They average 4 sacks a game. Thats insane!

We luckily we have a really good run game and if Reed starts they won't be able to pin their ears back and rush the QB. If it's Weigman we have to stay out of 3rd and long.
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saw em off
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2:19p, 10/28/24
May it be 2014 all over again minus the "trill"
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taylorswift13_
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2:20p, 10/28/24
They will not score more than 10 on us, they've allowed 32 sacks this year, that's 132nd in the nation! They aren't good rushing the ball. They have a horrible qb who is errant throwing the ball and fumbles nearly once a game if not more. Our defense will feast all night long…
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aggiemark99
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2:28p, 10/28/24
Anyone know what their depth is like along the defensive line? If they can't sustain drives and we can stick with the running game, I'm hopeful that we can wear them down.
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Zackdh9
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2:30p, 10/28/24
Their best W is a toss up between Akron or OU. I'm not scared
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PeekingDuck
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2:36p, 10/28/24
We match up well with SC.
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AgLA06
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In reply to vander54 • 2:58p, 10/28/24
vander54 said:
SpreadsheetAg said:
They've allowed -23 yards rushing on 3rd downs all season.

However, when broken down, they make they're hay on 3rd and 4+

https://cfbstats.com/2024/team/648/rushing/defense/situational.html

(A lot of that is sack yardage, I assume)

We have to stay ahead of the chains

Here's our offensive rushing situational stats... we are pretty damn good on 3rd and 1-6 to go

https://cfbstats.com/2024/team/697/rushing/offense/situational.html



They average 4 sacks a game. Thats insane!

We luckily we have a really good run game and if Reed starts they won't be able to pin their ears back and rush the QB. If it's Weigman we have to stay out of 3rd and long.
I mean if they aren't scared of him passing down field they can 100% do that with run blitz and shifting pre-snap.
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george07
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3:19p, 10/28/24
Like most on here, I've been nervous about this game since South Carolina has given good teams a run for their money. But I am surprised to see the stats predicting such a close game, given how bad their offense is and how good our defense is. Hoping for a bigger than expected win.
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OKC~Ag
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3:30p, 10/28/24
Thanks you...

I was thinking this could be a blowout...but your data says otherwise and has a tighter margin than LSU
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JJxvi
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3:45p, 10/28/24
If we were to actually win this game comfortably somehow, I would say that 11-1 is probably in the cards.
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TexAgs23
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4:49p, 10/28/24
Their QB likes to run too. Must keep him contained.
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BTKAG97
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4:51p, 10/28/24
Puttin' it out early this week.
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Magpie
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In reply to Pizza • 4:54p, 10/28/24
Indicates that LSU has a crap run defense but not sure it says much about our game with SC.
You may be through with the past, but the past may not be through with you...
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Magpie
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 5:01p, 10/28/24
That's one of the good parts of Aggie tradition, to play tough defense and run the ball hard and effectively. It's winning football. The rest of the offense will come around.
You may be through with the past, but the past may not be through with you...
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