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2024 StatSim: Texas A&M vs South Carolina

12,794 Views | 89 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by PeekingDuck
Shooz in Katy
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jsc8116 said:

I think the two keys that jump off the page and will determine who wins the game are:

1.Can our 102nd ranked pass D stop USCe 103rd ranked
pass O?

2.Can our 17th ranked rush O perform against USCe 15th ranked rush D?


Time to call the thunder. Throw it to Thor all game!!
90ags
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RC is that you?
______________________________________________________ Play for the name on the front of your jersey, not the back...
WorkTogetherAgs
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Pumpkinhead
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Style & Physical Toughness: Equal
Defenses: Equal
Offenses: A&M a bit better
Coaching Staff: I give edge to A&M
USC has homefield advantage and night game

--
A&M as a slight favorite (like -3) makes a lot of sense. Very close call.

WhataMaroon88
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jsc8116 said:

I think the two keys that jump off the page and will determine who wins the game are:

1.Can our 102nd ranked pass D stop USCe 103rd ranked
pass O?

2.Can our 17th ranked rush O perform against USCe 15th ranked rush D?


The pass D stat is strictly based on yards and is super inflated because teams have recently had to go full pass mode on us with our very good front 7 and run D. Check pass efficiency, which is a better indicator, and that is 27th in the nation.

Our secondary gives up yards but makes QBs work.

Magpie
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WhataMaroon88 said:

jsc8116 said:

I think the two keys that jump off the page and will determine who wins the game are:

1.Can our 102nd ranked pass D stop USCe 103rd ranked
pass O?

2.Can our 17th ranked rush O perform against USCe 15th ranked rush D?


The pass D stat is strictly based on yards and is super inflated because teams have recently had to go full pass mode on us with our very good front 7 and run D. Check pass efficiency, which is a better indicator, and that is 27th in the nation.

Our secondary gives up yards but makes QBs work.




Precisely. Our rush D forced LSWho to throw the ball exclusively, and Nuss threw for 405 on 50% of 50 attempts. Not really that great. No running game forced him to try to do too much: 3 pix. Game over.
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WorkTogetherAgs
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They pumped
Anton Chigurhs Hair
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Wow - looking at the spreadsheet, just noticed we only have 2 common opponents with South Carolina. All year. Living in the same conference.
Haricougar
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We haven't given up more than 24 points in a game all year. Don't see them getting 23.

I do expect them to block a punt or a field goal. 23-14 is my guess.
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Ghost of Bisbee
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No, this won't be easy, but I don't see this being a more difficult game than Miss State after thinking about it.

I'm convinced SC's QB isn't anywhere near as good as Van Buren is.

Night game? Who ****ing cares. I saw our 2018 team, Jimbo's first year, come into Columbia and shut them down. I was there for that game and no, it didn't start at night but it ended at night.

This team grew up a lot in the 2nd half against LSU. Kind of like that Florida game in 2020 when the team willed their way against Florida.

I think the Aggies hit SC like a sledgehammer. SCAR won't know what hit 'em.
That's assuming the team stays humble and focused on their prep, which I think Elko won't have a problem doing.

"But beamer's a different coach". Don't care.
This Aggie team is a freight train. It's going to take a lot of mistakes and being asleep at the wheel to lose this game.

Not saying it can't happen, I just don't think it's going to be as difficult for the team as the Miss State game was.
halfastros81
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It's going to be a rock fight imo. They are a caged animal with very good first team talent. Depth could be the difference. This is by no means a sleep walk victory for the Ags.

Win the turnover battle and we likely win the game. Lose it… all bets are off imo
phatbeast
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JJxvi said:

If we were to actually win this game comfortably somehow, I would say that 11-1 is probably in the cards.

More like 14-1.
Ghost of Bisbee
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phatbeast said:

JJxvi said:

If we were to actually win this game comfortably somehow, I would say that 11-1 is probably in the cards.

More like 14-1.


Well get ready, because I'm expecting a comfortable win.

Tough first half. SCAR folds 10 min into 3Q.
Comfortable margin of victory, so long as the Ags prep well and stay focused
davido
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They come out fast. We're tied 10-10 at the half. Then in the second half we lean on them and wear out their future pros and get after their QB. We go 17-0 in the 4th to close it out.

Ags 27
cocks 10
Ag Tag
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We'll slap 'em around with our junk.
Ghost of Bisbee
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It'll be a cockfight for sure
Magpie
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Watch the skycast no huddle. We played much better than a lot of us thought we did. Defense is lights out. I think we roll em.
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taylorswift13_
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Haricougar said:

We haven't given up more than 24 points in a game all year. Don't see them getting 23.

I do expect them to block a punt or a field goal. 23-14 is my guess.
exactly! I don't know why everyone's scared… this is statistically the worst offense we have faced BY FAR. They are first to last in the country in sacks allowed, and they fumble the ball more than once a game. They scored 3 against Ole Miss (at home). They are not scoring more than 10 or 13 on us. Yeah they might slow us down on offense, but they have a horrible secondary and have not faced a rushing team like us. They have no talented receivers and a qb who is not a sec qb and will turn it over multiple times. Rocket Sanders is only good between the tackles, which we will stuff him. So he won't be a factor. Their kicker isn't anything special either… how you all scare yourselves every game is beyond me
taylorswift13_
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They've given up 32 sacks in 7 games lol… Sellers is an awful qb, we don't need to blitz whatsoever and we'll get pressure. Our secondary will outshine their poor receiver core and with a spy, Sellers is going to turn it over and throw hail Mary's up. Teams know how to stop him and I can guarantee you Elko isn't worried about him. I expect us to have 6 or more sacks and force at least 2 turnovers.
SpreadsheetAg
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Shameless Bump for the Thursday crowd
Iraq2xVeteran
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Texas A&M Aggies
Score: 24
Passing yards: 180
Rushing yards: 180
Total yards: 360
Turnovers: 1

South Carolina Gamecocks
Score: 17
Passing yards: 200
Rushing yards: 120
Total yards: 320
Turnovers: 2
Evanhue
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I'm not worried about their hype. They're always pumped and crazed when we play there. But we always handle it, except last time when we crapped down our leg and dug an immediate 17pt hole. And we still came back and made a game of it.
TX_COWDOC
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Turnovers (and points off) will likely decide this game.


Unless we just clobber them.


I'm squeezing for the latter!
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SpreadsheetAg
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This Aggie team is different and with Elko at the helm I feel like we'll be ready to play our brand of ball.
RogerTheShrubber
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Regarding their 243 yds rushing vs LSU, 141 of those yards came on 2 plays.... 75 and 66....we should roll them...
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Mule
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TX_COWDOC said:

Turnovers (and points off) will likely decide this game.


Unless we just clobber them.


I'm squeezing for the latter!
They are elite at creating turnovers. Our O will need to be locked in with protecting the rock!
bearcat
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I have told friends for several weeks that SC is the most difficult game left on our schedule and I do not expect to win: They all ask what do I see that scares me:

1. True turnover game. Winner of this battle wins the game.
2. Really tough place to play
3. Strengths vs weaknesses
Our strengths are matched by their strengths and vice versa. We run well and they stop run well.
The one glaring thing I see is that our defense struggles with a mobile QB out of the pocket. They have a mobile QB. Will they hit a couple over the top when we don't get QB on the ground outside pocket. It is happened a few times this year. Heck Nussmeir isn't even mobile and he has receivers open by 5+ yards. We were lucky he could not get ball within 5 yards of receivers when on the run. Sellers is much better than that. You add those 2 plays to a missed assignment long run and they are at 17-21 points without factoring in a turnover. I think our offense is too one dimensional to score 21 on this D.
TX_Aggie37
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bearcat said:

I have told friends for several weeks that SC is the most difficult game left on our schedule and I do not expect to win: They all ask what do I see that scares me:

1. True turnover game. Winner of this battle wins the game.
2. Really tough place to play
3. Strengths vs weaknesses
Our strengths are matched by their strengths and vice versa. We run well and they stop run well.
The one glaring thing I see is that our defense struggles with a mobile QB out of the pocket. They have a mobile QB. Will they hit a couple over the top when we don't get QB on the ground outside pocket. It is happened a few times this year. Heck Nussmeir isn't even mobile and he has receivers open by 5+ yards. We were lucky he could not get ball within 5 yards of receivers when on the run. Sellers is much better than that. You add those 2 plays to a missed assignment long run and they are at 17-21 points without factoring in a turnover. I think our offense is too one dimensional to score 21 on this D.
Everything you described as strengths vs weaknesses applies in the reverse as well. Get a dog.
ABATTBQ11
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AgLA06 said:

OMB100GAS said:

Not a chance they score like that. 24-13 ags
Someone has to explain to me how they score. That's the part I don't understand.

Their offense is literally on the last page of the total offense rankings just above NM State.


Short fields provided by the defense. They've gotten 16 turnovers this year. But also, they've played a lot of good to top tier defenses, so no surprise their offensive numbers are low. Bama and Kentucky are both top 30 in scoring defense. Ole Miss is #1. Oklahoma and Arkansas are right around 45. LSU is like 50 something.

And yes, they can score 17-24 on us. They put up 30+ on Kentucky and LSU and 25 on Alabama. We'll be one of the better defenses they'll play this year and are statistically a little better than those teams, but I could see them scoring 3-4 times.
vander54
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ABATTBQ11 said:

AgLA06 said:

OMB100GAS said:

Not a chance they score like that. 24-13 ags
Someone has to explain to me how they score. That's the part I don't understand.

Their offense is literally on the last page of the total offense rankings just above NM State.


Short fields provided by the defense. They've gotten 16 turnovers this year. But also, they've played a lot of good to top tier defenses, so no surprise their offensive numbers are low. Bama and Kentucky are both top 30 in scoring defense. Ole Miss is #1. Oklahoma and Arkansas are right around 45. LSU is like 50 something.

And yes, they can score 17-24 on us. They put up 30+ on Kentucky and LSU and 25 on Alabama. We'll be one of the better defenses they'll play this year and are statistically a little better than those teams, but I could see them scoring 3-4 times.


They do rely on their D getting TO so if we can limit TOs I think we can keep them under 21 easily. But if we turn it over they can make us pay
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KCup17
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What were their offensive stats vs OU? Their defense did most of the scoring from what I remember.
WorkTogetherAgs
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wangus12
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Hope Elko is showing the players this because it seems like we are being picked against by a lot of people.
Definitely Not A Cop
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The more I think about this game, the more confident I get about an A&M win. If Reed continues not turning over the ball, I think we win handily. Top SEC scoring offense, think our D line is better, and that's their best feature. Their o-line is terrible.

If we execute we win, simple as that.
Meanmachine
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Qb run game by both teams will be the key to the game. Also our special teams need to be improved. Sec road games are a great equalizer. I think this game is a bigger challenge than the tu game.
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