South Carolina is 2-3 in SEC and in 12th place. This IS a trap game. It's also their homecoming, Halloween, and a night game.

Buckle your chin straps, it's going to be a dog fight.

Down to 2.5 now

I hope our defense can score more than theirs!

joerobert_pete06 said:

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I say we stick with Wiggy as starting QB. Saturdays win probably fired him up but we have Reed ready to go to throw curveballs

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I'll disagree. If Miss St secondary could catch the Ags would have very likely lost that game. Then he really couldn't spark the team vs LSU. Reed has earned the starting job IMO.

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Again? What, did he earn them against LSU and the immediately lose them u til the next win?

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You new here?

The line between "OMG - National Champs" and "Fire the Head Coach" is each week's result.

Absolute classic trap game.

BAS is STRONG with this one.

You really need to be a degenerate to gamble on this one. We haven't really seen what would happen if Klein starts spamming zone reads and play action with Reed at QB. Against LSU they really played to Reed's strengths with all of the jet motion and zone reads. In the games that Reed started earlier there were too many straight drop backs.

Maybe the staff feels like we can carve teams up with Reed but also worries about teams stuffing the box and getting us in a tight spot like the Bowling Green game.

So we keep trying to force the issue with Weigman and if he gets it done, the silver bullets are still loaded.

From NCAA College Football team stats:
(ranking 133 teams after 10/27/24)


South Carolina

Total Defense #13
Rushing Defense #16
Pass Efficiency Defense #12
Tackles for lost yardage #7

I still think Auburn may be sneaky difficult late in the season

DM44 said:

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From NCAA College Football team stats:
(ranking 133 teams after 10/27/24)


South Carolina

Total Defense #13
Rushing Defense #16
Pass Efficiency Defense #12
Tackles for lost yardage #7

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now do their inept offense

HTownMan87 said:

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I still think Auburn may be sneaky difficult late in the season

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Any SEC road game can be difficult but we should be a TD+ favorite at Auburn. At least we probably would be as of today.

Gonna be a fight! Hope they are ready

I seriously think this is the hardest game left on our schedule. I'm more concerned about this one than I was last Sat night for sure. We'll be doing damn good to get out of Columbia with a W

Meh.

We're tied 10-10 at the half. Then in the second half we lean on them and wear out their future pros and get after their QB. We go 17-0 in the 4th to close it out.

Ags 27
cocks 10

vander54 said:

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HTownMan87 said:

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I still think Auburn may be sneaky difficult late in the season

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Any SEC road game can be difficult but we should be a TD+ favorite at Auburn. At least we probably would be as of today.

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We would be about a 3 point favorite at Auburn right now.



Looks like most shops have us us -2.5 at SC now

northeastag said:

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Always tough to play on the road against at decent team following a big home win. The chance for a letdown is HUGE.

And SC is no slouch at all. LSU and Bama both just squeaked by them.

If you had to pick one game the rest of the year with the biggest potential for an "upset", this is it.

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Well, there are only 4 games left and zero chance New Mexico is a loss and Texas will probably be favored so obviously that game wouldn't count as an 'upset'…..so basically everybody is simply saying they think @South Carolina is a harder game than @Auburn

USC lost to LSU 38-34 at home (counting missed PATs). We beat LSU 38-34 at home (counting missed kicks and PATs). Total yards were about the same for each team in each game. USC rushed for 243. We rushed for 242. LSU ran the ball better against USC. With the Marcel magic and loss of the element of surprise, this game likely rests on our ability to control the run.

94chem said:

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USC lost to LSU 38-34 at home (counting missed PATs). We beat LSU 38-34 at home (counting missed kicks and PATs). Total yards were about the same for each team in each game. USC rushed for 243. We rushed for 242. LSU ran the ball better against USC. With the Marcel magic and loss of the element of surprise, this game likely rests on our ability to control the run.

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As great as this staff's halftime adjustments are, I do worry that eventually we might find ourselves in too big a hole to climb out of if we don't come out with better starts in these conference games. Especially with some of our questions on offense still to be answered.

We are a very talented and well coached team, and I think we have every chance to win every game left on our schedule. But if we start slow on offense (for whatever the reason may be) and give up too many early points, we aren't really built to go chase down points. That's my only fear.

Tex117 said:

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Absolute classic trap game.

BAS is STRONG with this one.

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Meh, it's all semantics I suppose, but how do you define a classic trap game? A classic trap game to me is a game you fully expect to win, and it usually falls right before a bigger game. What are we being trapped by? What are we looking ahead to? Why would we fall for the "we are definitely going to win and need to prepare for the next opponent" mentality? This is the only real game for the next 25 days. It should have all of our attention.

I believe we are more likely to win than lose, but we are 2.5 point favorites and about a 55% favorite on the ESPN fei. It's closer to a toss up than a comfortable win. I don't define that as a trap game.

Im sure what will happen is those saying it's a trap game will come out in full force if we do lose saying I told you so. But many of us will say no, if we lose, it wasn't because we looked ahead and got trapped by expecting to win. we lost because it was close to a 50/50 game to begin with that we need to play well to win, and likely didn't play up to our ability.

But we also have had early scores in most games. Even in the games where Conner struggled, we went right down the field on ND and scored that Moss TD on our second drive against LSU

BMX Bandit said:

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vander54 said:

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HTownMan87 said:

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I still think Auburn may be sneaky difficult late in the season

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Any SEC road game can be difficult but we should be a TD+ favorite at Auburn. At least we probably would be as of today.

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We would be about a 3 point favorite at Auburn right now.



Looks like most shops have us us -2.5 at SC now

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No we wouldn't. Auburn is worse than South Carolina by a decent clip. Sagarin has us as at -6 or so and the vegas lines have be -2 or -3 in our favor based off his projections.

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Sagarin has us as at -6 or so and the vegas lines have be -2 or -3 in our favor based off his projections.

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Huh?

BMX Bandit said:

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Sagarin has us as at -6 or so and the vegas lines have be -2 or -3 in our favor based off his projections.

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Huh?

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Sagarin has a poll and he ranks every team. You take team A' value minus team B' value to get the line. Add around 3 point for home field advantgae. Right now we are valued at 86.19 and Auburn is 77.34.

86.19-77.34=8.86
-8.86+3=-5.56

So he has us as about a 6 point favorite. Every week when vegas release their lines we are actual 2 or 3 points better than hos projection.

So we would probably be -6 on the absolute lowest line and -8 or -9 on majority.


He has us vs South Carolina at -2 and we opened -4

"Trap game" is one of those sports cliches with no data to actually back it up... Akin to "you can throw out all records in a rivalry game!".

If we win vs SC, two weeks from now half of you will then be calling Auburn a "trap game".

so your theory is just take sagarin, and add 2-3 points, and that is the vegas line?

beerad12man said:

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Tex117 said:

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Absolute classic trap game.

BAS is STRONG with this one.

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Meh, it's all semantics I suppose, but how do you define a classic trap game? A classic trap game to me is a game you fully expect to win, and it usually falls right before a bigger game. What are we being trapped by? What are we looking ahead to? Why would we fall for the "we are definitely going to win and need to prepare for the next opponent" mentality? This is the only real game for the next 25 days. It should have all of our attention.

I believe we are more likely to win than lose, but we are 2.5 point favorites and about a 55% favorite on the ESPN fei. It's closer to a toss up than a comfortable win. I don't define that as a trap game.

Im sure what will happen is those saying it's a trap game will come out in full force if we do lose saying I told you so. But many of us will say no, if we lose, it wasn't because we looked ahead and got trapped by expecting to win. we lost because it was close to a 50/50 game to begin with that we need to play well to win, and likely didn't play up to our ability.

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I had long considered the road game at South Carolina a trap game because we are coming off a tough home game against LSU to play a road game at night against a well-rested South Carolina team coming off their second bye week. However, we are only 3.5-point road favorites, and it comes before our second bye week and a cupcake game against New Mexico State. South Carolina is the only SEC team we play in the next 3 weeks until we play at Auburn on 11/23.

To me, a trap game is a game in which you are favored by double digits and falls before a tougher game. Our road game at Mississippi State was a trap game because we were 21-point road favorites, and it came before our home game against LSU. Our next trap game is at Auburn because we will probably be double-digit road favorites, and it comes before the Lone Star State rivalry showdown with Texas at Kyle Field.

BMX Bandit said:

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so your theory is just take sagarin, and add 2-3 points, and that is the vegas line?

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Its been extremely accurate

so this 2-3 point add thing just goes for A&M games, or all?

We'll have to throw the ball to win. Depends on what version of QB play we get this game. I wouldn't be surprised to see a rotation if they struggle.

BMX Bandit said:

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so this 2-3 point add thing just goes for A&M games, or all?

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I haven't paid attention to other games. Just noticed it with ours. Seems Vegas always gives us a few points.

Marcel will look closer to Arkansas Marcel than LSU Marcel. But we win