HoustonAggie427 said:

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Can one of our PHDs explain what scenarios we make the SEC championship or playoffs?

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Assuming A&M beats New Mexico State below are the possible season outcomes

11-1 - A&M makes the CCG and the playoff, regardless of CCG outcome
10-2
Loss to Auburn, Miss St, or Auburn - still make the CCG as A&M would be 7-1 in conference with wins over Texas and LSU. The only teams left with one loss A&M did not play are Vandy, Bama, and Tennessee. Bama plays Tennessee and Vandy is unlikely to go 7-1.

Loss to LSU - very likely make the CCG. A&M would have tie breaker over Texas and LSU still has Bama and Bama plays Tennessee. Only way A&M would be left out is if LSU and Georgia both finish with one loss.

Loss to Texas - probably make CCG. Still a threat from Bama running the table. The tie breaker would fall to combined record of common opponents which would boil down to Georgia, Vandy, Tennessee, and Oklahoma records vs Texas, Florida, Arkansas, and Mississippi State.

In any of these scenarios if A&M goes 10-2 and does not make the CCG they are likely the 3rd or 4th SEC team. I would lump this in with 10-3 with a CCG loss.

Playoffs at 10-2 (no CCG) or 10-3

Based on current rankings the distribution is likely

Big 12 - 1
ACC - 2
ND
G5 - 1
Big 10 - 3
SEC - 3

That leaves one spot which would come down to SEC #4 vs Big 10 #4. Right now that looks to be Indiana who has Michigan and Ohio State. Does a 11-1 Indiana get in over a 10-3 CCG loser? That's hard to know. If they're coming off a beat down vs Ohio State and A&M is competitive in the CCG or misses the CCG I think A&M is in.

9-3 or worse - very unlikely to make CCG or playoff

DD88 said:

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SEC Teams with no conference losses (remaining 0/1 conference loss opponents)
A&M (LSU,tu)
tu (Ga,Vandy,Arky,A&M)
LSU (Arky,A&M,Bama,Vandy)

SEC Teams with 1 conference loss (remaining 0/1 conference loss opponents)
Ga (tu,UT)
Bama(UT,Miz,LSU)
UT(Bama,Ga,Vandy)
Miz(Bama,Arky)
Arky (LSU,tu,Miz)
Vandy (tu,LSU.UT)

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Just to add other undefeated/1-loss teams from other major conferences.

ACC
Unbeaten
Miami
Pitt

1-loss
Clemson
SMU
Syracuse
Duke

B12
Unbeaten
BYU
ISU

1-loss
Tceh
K-State
Az-State



Big Ten
Unbeaten
Indiana
Oregon
PSU

1-loss
Illinois
OSU
Nebraska
Big Ten additional teams with just 1-loss in conference: Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin

Little Rock Ag said:

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The problem will resolve itself soon enough. The current, chaotic conference system will eventually disintegrate, and college football will be organized into more balanced groupings (conferences, divisions, etc.) with a set of scheduling and playoff rules. It's evolving in that direction, so just hang tight, and you'll have your wish one day before long.

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What's going to be hilarious is when that happens you see some sort of reformation of the "SWC" as we will again see regionality factored in.

Medaggie said:

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If we end up with 2 losses along with Bama, Tenn, Ga, Ole Miss then it gets extremely stick but I am confident we get in because we have 1 conference loss vs the other 4.

If texas beats Ga, they are essentially guaranteed a spot because they will assured of a top 4 conf standing.

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I'm of the firm belief that tu is in no matter what at this point. They'd need to lose 3 of their next 6 to get knocked out of the playoff and even a 9-3 sip team might get an at-large from the CFP.

Iowaggie said:

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Based on today, projected CFP.

1. SEC Champ Texas
2. Big Ten Champ Oregon
3. ACC Champ Miami
4. B12 Champ ISU


5. Ohio St
6. Alabama
7. Georgia
8. BYU
9. Penn St
10. Clemson
11. Notre Dame
12. Boise St or Navy


Besides the five champs, I think ACC and B12 each get 1 extra at-large team, plus Notre Dame.

That leaves 4 at-large spots for Big Ten + SEC, likely split to 2 at-large spots.



I think for "cheering interest", cheer for the ACC and B12 team to go undefeated, with the 2nd-4th place teams to beat each other up.

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I think the only way that works for the Big 12 is for BYU to go undefeated and then lose in the conference championship game to ISU. Possible but not likely, and even then I don't see them being No. 8 over a 1 loss PSU or Notre Dame (whose goose would be cooked with a 2nd loss - so they'd have to be one loss in this scenario).

cecil77 said:

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Y'all that have always wanted a playoff are getting what you wanted.

Have no fear, enough *****ing will eventually get it expanded to 16 teams. Maybe more, who knows?

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Yeah!

I mean, it's so awful in all of the other sports. Truly, truly awful.

angus55 said:

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Little Rock Ag said:

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The problem will resolve itself soon enough. The current, chaotic conference system will eventually disintegrate, and college football will be organized into more balanced groupings (conferences, divisions, etc.) with a set of scheduling and playoff rules. It's evolving in that direction, so just hang tight, and you'll have your wish one day before long.

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What's going to be hilarious is when that happens you see some sort of reformation of the "SWC" as we will again see regionality factored in.

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It's eventually going to happen regardless IMO.

Superconferences aren't sustainable. You lose the historic rivalries in a lot of cases, you have teams that may play each other once every 15 or so years, and you'll have a group of teams that will eventually get tired of being just a number in a huge conference and the inevitable break ups will begin. Then the cycle will start anew. It's like continental drift.

W said:

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here's the problem I'm looking at...

the SEC might only get 3 teams in the new 12-team CFP

the ACC, Big 12, and Notre Dame are loving the new expanded playoff

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4 teams, maybe 5

schmellba99 said:

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cecil77 said:

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Y'all that have always wanted a playoff are getting what you wanted.

Have no fear, enough *****ing will eventually get it expanded to 16 teams. Maybe more, who knows?

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Yeah!

I mean, it's so awful in all of the other sports. Truly, truly awful.

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Football is very different. You can't play enough games.

Vandy will save us all...followed by a late surge from Miss St. And throw in NIU plus Wisconsin or Northwestern for an upset...It will happen. Oh yeah, and the Boise St., too

Medaggie said:

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If texas beats Ga, they are essentially guaranteed a spot because they will assured of a top 4 conf standing.

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Really????

I'm sure they will be thrilled to know they can lose road games to Arkansas Vandy and A&M and still make the championship, not to mention worrying about Florida and Kentucky.

I have no idea how it will happen with wins and losses, but I do know one thing with 99% certainty.

We are going to finish the season ranked 13th.

This is the way.

cecil77 said:

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schmellba99 said:

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cecil77 said:

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Y'all that have always wanted a playoff are getting what you wanted.

Have no fear, enough *****ing will eventually get it expanded to 16 teams. Maybe more, who knows?

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Yeah!

I mean, it's so awful in all of the other sports. Truly, truly awful.

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Football is very different. You can't play enough games.

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Yet every other college football division manages to do it just fine, year in and year out, and has for as long as I can remember.

Huh. Must be some super magic they have that D1 doesn't or something.

87_Was_Long_Ago said:

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I have no idea how it will happen with wins and losses, but I do know one thing with 99% certainty.

We are going to finish the season ranked 13th.

This is the way.

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And #12 will have an equal or worse record than us, probably a worse SOS but will be an old blue blood that will get the inherent bias that we don't because, historically, we step on our dicks every chance we get and flat out stomp on it whenever we have had an opportunity to get out of the rut of mediocrity.

Its tradition.

schmellba99 said:

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cecil77 said:

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schmellba99 said:

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cecil77 said:

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Y'all that have always wanted a playoff are getting what you wanted.

Have no fear, enough *****ing will eventually get it expanded to 16 teams. Maybe more, who knows?

---

Yeah!

I mean, it's so awful in all of the other sports. Truly, truly awful.

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Football is very different. You can't play enough games.

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Yet every other college football division manages to do it just fine, year in and year out, and has for as long as I can remember.

Huh. Must be some super magic they have that D1 doesn't or something.

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Not as much money, nor power, nor ego involved. FBS wouldn't stand for the methodology the lower divisions use. Nobody wonders "were they really THE BEST". And even then, football is a poor tournament sport, especially if parameters like "best" are the goal.