Can one of our PHDs explain what scenarios we make the SEC championship or playoffs?

There is a simple way to look at this but I'm also interested in the PHD one.

here's the problem I'm looking at...

the SEC might only get 3 teams in the new 12-team CFP

the ACC, Big 12, and Notre Dame are loving the new expanded playoff

I'm interested in what happens to the loser of the SEC championship. If we (or someone else) finish 10-2 and in the top 12 and then lose in the championship, we could easily drop out of the top 12. Once that happens, I think the conferences could reconsider having a championship game.

JimbloFisher said:

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I'm interested in what happens to the loser of the SEC championship. If we (or someone else) finish 10-2 and in the top 12 and then lose in the championship, we could easily drop out of the top 12. Once that happens, I think the conferences could reconsider having a championship game.

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This has been bugging me too.

Detailing possible scenarios when most teams have still only played 2 or 3 conference games so far seems unnecessarily complicated. For a huge number of teams in the country at this point it's just "keep winning a while longer and then we'll see maybe 5 weeks from now what needs to happen."

JimbloFisher said:

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I'm interested in what happens to the loser of the SEC championship. If we (or someone else) finish 10-2 and in the top 12 and then lose in the championship, we could easily drop out of the top 12. Once that happens, I think the conferences could reconsider having a championship game.

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Too much guaranteed money for the B1G and SEC (as well as the ACC and the BDF) to give up those games. The conference leadership will sacrifice a team that probably isn't winning a title anyway to keep that guaranteed $$$ from their conference championship games. And for the record, I've always hated those stupid games that do more pain to the teams that play in it than those who don't.

Would the money from having another team in the playoff not be better? I genuinely don't know how that works.

As long as any subjectivity is in place, the system will have sucky features.

Pick a formula, give everyone the formula, and let them earn their rank on the field.

HoustonAggie427 said:

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Can one of our PHDs explain what scenarios we make the SEC championship or playoffs?

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Winning. HTH

Y'all that have always wanted a playoff are getting what you wanted.

Have no fear, enough *****ing will eventually get it expanded to 16 teams. Maybe more, who knows?

LuoJi said:

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As long as any subjectivity is in place, the system will have sucky features.

Pick a formula, give everyone the formula, and let them earn their rank on the field.

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Yep. Things are way better than they used to be years, or certainly decades, ago (they couldn't have been any dumber). But this is still an inherently imperfect system because ultimately it relies on human beings who will just "eyeball it". Yeah, we have a larger playoff field with more teams that have greater control over their own fate now, but for the most part who gets in and where they start is still totally subjective.

Imagine being a fan of the NFL and deciding rankings each week or caring about "style points". It's just so dumb.

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Things are way better than they used to be years, or certainly decades, ago (they couldn't have been any dumber).

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The battle is long since fought, and money won. But depending upon one's view of the place and purpose of intercollegiate athletics, decades ago was way better.

cecil77 said:

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Things are way better than they used to be years, or certainly decades, ago (they couldn't have been any dumber).

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The battle is long since fought, and money won. But depending upon one's view of the place and purpose of intercollegiate athletics, decades ago was way better.

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Oh in some ways about the sport in general, sure, I just mean in terms of determining a clear champion things used to be utterly comical and they are far better now. Year after year we'd see some combination of a #1 Big 10 team play a #20 PAC 10 team in the Rose Bowl while a #2 SWC team played a #10 Independent in the Cotton Bowl and a #3 SEC team play a #8 team in the Sugar Bowl or whatever and "the system" was to just hope all but one would lose, otherwise we'd have multiple national champions each year who never came within 800 miles of each other or other teams that went undefeated that didn't have a chance because pollsters just arbitrarily said "We don't think they're as good" and so on, it was moronic. It's still moronic, but 100 times better than it was.

Joes said:

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cecil77 said:

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Things are way better than they used to be years, or certainly decades, ago (they couldn't have been any dumber).

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The battle is long since fought, and money won. But depending upon one's view of the place and purpose of intercollegiate athletics, decades ago was way better.

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Oh in some ways about the sport in general, sure, I just mean in terms of determining a clear champion things used to be utterly comical and they are far better now. Year after year we'd see some combination of a #1 Big 10 team play a #20 PAC 10 team in the Rose Bowl while a #2 SWC team played a #10 Independent in the Cotton Bowl and a #3 SEC team play a #8 team in the Sugar Bowl or whatever and "the system" was to just hope all but one would lose, otherwise we'd have multiple national champions each year who never came within 800 miles of each other or other teams that went undefeated that didn't have a chance because pollsters just arbitrarily said "We don't think they're as good" and so on, it was moronic. It's still moronic, but 100 times better than it was.

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But back then the real goal was to beat your rival, win the conference and get a big bowl. There wasn't the obsession over the national championship like there is today.

If we win out, we make the SEC CG and playoff.

If we end up with 1 conference loss, we'll most likely make the SEC CG as most of our top competition already has 1 conference loss and some have 2. And the others are playing each other over the next few weeks.

One playoff predictor gave us a 97% chance of making the playoff at 10-2 and a 75% chance at 10-3. Hard to tell how much the committee would penalize us for a SEC CG loss.

JimbloFisher said:

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I'm interested in what happens to the loser of the SEC championship. If we (or someone else) finish 10-2 and in the top 12 and then lose in the championship, we could easily drop out of the top 12. Once that happens, I think the conferences could reconsider having a championship game.

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Don't be silly. Conference champion gets a first-round bye, so it's essentially a de-facto playoff game. The only difference is if you lose and still have a solid record and make the playoffs you're in the "loser's bracket" and have to win an extra game.

I really don't think it's that complicated. Guaranteed ways to be in is to be one of the 5 highest ranked conference champions, or be one of the top 7 teams who aren't a conference champion.

If all 5 conference champions are in the top 12, the top 12 teams get in. If all 5 conference champions are outside the top 12, it would be the top 7 teams. We're probably looking at the top 11 ranked teams, assuming the G5 champion isn't that highly ranked. But if one of the P4 conference champions has a relatively bad record they might also be outside the top 12. That could happen if the conference is weak, the team has a bad non-conference record, or the team won out of a weak conference division.

The problem will resolve itself soon enough. The current, chaotic conference system will eventually disintegrate, and college football will be organized into more balanced groupings (conferences, divisions, etc.) with a set of scheduling and playoff rules. It's evolving in that direction, so just hang tight, and you'll have your wish one day before long.

It's actually extremely simple

Sec takes 2 top conference records

Cfp takes top 5 ranked conf champs, with top 4 getting a bye. The other 7 bids are at large based on cfp rankings

W said:

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here's the problem I'm looking at...

the SEC might only get 3 teams in the new 12-team CFP

the ACC, Big 12, and Notre Dame are loving the new expanded playoff

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It's almost guaranteed the Big Ten gets three in

Seems straight forward. There is 4 power conference with automatic bids. SEC will get at least 4 teams a year.

The SEC runner up will be in unless they have 4+ losses. A 3 lost team will be in and be above all the other 2 loss SEC teams. No way they will select a 10-2 LSU and leave out a 10-3 SEC runner up. WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

Most years will be
4-5 SEC
3-4 Big 10
1 or 2 Big 12/ACC
1 Power 5

Upper 1/3 of the SEC will essentially be guaranteed in. If we only lose one more game, we are in no matter what. If we lose 2, then it becomes hairy esp if we don't make the CC game

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Seems straight forward.

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It is, yet this is wrong:

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There is 4 power conference with automatic bids.

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No automatic bids.

Kraft Punk said:

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It's actually extremely simple

Sec takes 2 top conference records

Cfp takes top 5 ranked conf champs, with top 4 getting a bye. The other 7 bids are at large based on cfp rankings

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What you wrote is accurate, but it often won't be that simple though, because it's far more likely over time that there won't be just two teams that have the two best records. We might have 3 undefeated teams, or 1 undefeated and 3 with one or two losses, or whatever. The rankings both in terms of most of the teams that get in and where they are seeded are still going to be very subjective.

Medaggie said:

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Seems straight forward. There is 4 power conference with automatic bids. SEC will get at least 4 teams a year.

The SEC runner up will be in unless they have 4+ losses. A 3 lost team will be in and be above all the other 2 loss SEC teams. No way they will select a 10-2 LSU and leave out a 10-3 SEC runner up. WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

Most years will be
4-5 SEC
3-4 Big 10
1 or 2 Big 12/ACC
1 Power 5

Upper 1/3 of the SEC will essentially be guaranteed in. If we only lose one more game, we are in no matter what. If we lose 2, then it becomes hairy esp if we don't make the CC game

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This is the problem.

You're going to get one of BYU, Kansas State, or Iowa State automatically. Why? Each of them would be the 5th or 6th hardest game in SEC or Big 10. You're going to likely get Clemson automatically in. When their only quality opponent smashed their face in and they played literal cupcakes the rest of the year.

Meanwhile, teams like A&M, LSU, Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan have to play 3+ top 10 matchups to get the same auto birth.

Next up, the runner up in the Big 12 is likely getting in. Despite likely losing 1-2 games against the only relevant teams they played. Meanwhile, the same SEC or BIG schools who went 2-3 against top 10 opponents are left out. Why? Because they played harder opponents.

There should be no auto births. We have a committee for a reason. They have a formula they use for a reason. Actually use it. Strength of schedule should be the most important factor. Don't like it? Schedule harder teams in the non-conference.

The playoffs are going to have 3-4 teams who have not done anything other than win against bad teams to get there. They want to keep the whole country engaged. I get it. But maybe those fans should demand more out of their programs and conferences and put their money on the line like SEC and Big 10 do. Their conferences wouldn't suck ass if their fanbases didn't suck ass.

JimbloFisher said:

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I'm interested in what happens to the loser of the SEC championship. If we (or someone else) finish 10-2 and in the top 12 and then lose in the championship, we could easily drop out of the top 12. Once that happens, I think the conferences could reconsider having a championship game.

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The loser of the conference championship game should be auto bid. The championship game becomes a playoff… or play-in game. I like it.

If the loser is still top 12, they'll get in. If not, then they lost to the conference champion anyway, so not a big deal…

If the loser only loss is the conf champ game, they'll probably still get in unless they lose to a bad team.

HoustonAggie427 said:

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Can one of our PHDs explain what scenarios we make the SEC championship or playoffs?

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If we win out we make both, and win the NC.


The tricky part comes if we lose a game. Have to hope the available spots aren't between us and an annointed team. Like Ohio State.

I don't think many people really think Tennessee is #11 right now.

My fear is 10-2 non conference championship game participants passing 10-3 (or even 11-2) conference championship losers to take playoff berths. It happened a few times with the four team playoff, but we may see it way more with 12 teams.

Usually, the committee protected CCG losers already in top 12 from falling out of NY6.

Exception was Oregon who got blown out by Utah twice.

Bluecat_Aggie94 said:

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I don't think many people really think Tennessee is #11 right now.

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Agree. They have fallen off. We should be ahead of them

Medaggie said:

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Most years will be
4-5 SEC
3-4 Big 10
1 or 2 Big 12/ACC
1 Power 5

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this was the plan

but in the SEC...upsets occur almost every weekend

Kentucky beats Ole Miss. Vandy beats Alabama. And so forth.

but that's not happening in the ACC and the Big 12 so far

the SEC can't afford to have its top teams get upset in the second half of the season

BMX Bandit said:

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No automatic bids.

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What am I missing?


five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids from google.

Semantics but the 5 highest ranked would be SEC, BIG10, BIg12, ACC and then highest of the group of 5. Will there ever be more than 1 non Power 4, maybe but extremely unlikely

They did this as a compromise to the other 2 conferences. The SEC/BIG 10 run CFB now and this was their way to keep the other members happy. Thus the 5th automatic to the non power 4.

This is no different from pro sports. You can be a 7-9 division champ and make it to the playoffs over a 11-5 team that ended up 2nd in their division.

Almost all sports give an auto bid to their division champ.

If we end up with 2 losses along with Bama, Tenn, Ga, Ole Miss then it gets extremely stick but I am confident we get in because we have 1 conference loss vs the other 4.

If texas beats Ga, they are essentially guaranteed a spot because they will assured of a top 4 conf standing.