Since this board is fairly dead around this time of year and I have been stuck on conference calls at work all week, I decided to put together win total projections for each SEC team for this coming year, and I was actually pretty surprised at what I found. The SEC seemed to try to make more parity throughout the league based on how they assign opponents, and SP+ thinks they definitely seemed to be successful. There are a clear top 8 teams that have win totals between 9-10.5 and then only a few programs between them and teams that would require miracles to make a bowl.
Each team is discussed individually. The expected wins were calculated by grouping projected spreads into groups (toss-up games, 3-7 point games, 7-14 point games, >14 point games) and assigning a win percentage to each (50%, 35/65%, 20/80%, 5/95%). I also provided the number of games with more than 2 touchdown spreads and the number with more than one touchdown spreads as two different metrics of a team's "floor" and "ceiling". Note that I assumed FCS teams were guaranteed 2+ touchdown games for all teams since SP+ does not provide data on them, though that may not be strictly true across the board (cough..Vandy...cough).
Georgia
Expected wins:
10.4
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
9
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
9
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
12
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
Georgia plays a surprisingly difficult schedule compared to their last decade or so, but as the #1 overall team by a sizeable margin, they are going to have a pre-season advantage over everyone they play. The bulldogs open the season with Clemson, and take trips to Alabama, tu, and Ole Miss throughout the year. Those three away games are the only ones they are not double-digit favorites in, however. With the playoff expanding to 12 teams this year, it would take a minor miracle for Georgia to not repeat an appearance for yet another year.
Ole Miss
Expected wins:
10.1
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
8
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
10
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
12
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
Ole Miss is definitely one of the winners of the schedule lottery this time around (and has spent the NIL $$$ accordingly). They are double digit favorites in every game they play until they go to Death Valley October 12 (and that will be right before a bye). Georgia at home is the only other game they are not currently favored in by over a touchdown. This will more likely than not be Kiffin's third 10 win season in the last four years.
Texas
Expected wins:
10.05
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
8
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
9
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
12
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
tu has the second easiest of all SEC schedules, with 1 matchup against an opponent in the top 6 of the conference (Georgia, and they get them at home). According to current SP+ rankings, there is a cliff edge between the top 9 teams and the bottom 7. tu gets 5 of these 7. They do travel for a good non-con match against Michigan early in the season, which saves their schedule a bit. Nevertheless, anything less than 8 wins here means that something has gone drastically wrong.
Mizzou
Expected wins:
9.95
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
9
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
9
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
11
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
Mizzou is the only team that can reasonably claim an easier schedule than tu. In fact, Mizzou just swaps out Georgia and Florida for Alabama and Auburn. On top of that, they have Boston College at home as the main OOC game (though they do also travel to UMass for some reason). They could be three touchdowns worse than projections (roughly as bad as Arkansas is) and still be favored in 7 of their games. They are just slightly more than touchdown dogs to Bama on the road, and projected to be essentially even with Texas A&M on the road. Oklahoma at home is theoretically the only other close game.
LSU
Expected wins:
9.65
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
6
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
9
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
12
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
LSU are projected to have three of the closest games in the SEC next year: Bama and Ole Miss at home and at Texas A&M. They are currently favored by at least a touchdown in every other matchup.
Alabama
Expected wins:
9.55
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
6
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
8
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
12
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
The mighty haven't exactly fallen hard, but they are no longer a clear #1/#2 in the SEC either. Georgia is the only game where they are currently projected to be the dogs, but they are favored by less than 8 points against Mizzou, LSU, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, which is enough to yield more uncertainty than an Alabama schedule has had for a long time.
Texas A&M
Expected wins:
9.2
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
6
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
8
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
12
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
Texas A&M gets a major break from their typical SEC West schedule with one of the easier line-ups in the conference. We are projected as roughly a touchdown dog to tu for the season closer, and games against LSU, Notre Dame, and Mizzou are projected to be within a field goal apiece. We will be at least a touchdown favorite in everything else.
Tennessee
Expected wins:
9.05
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
7
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
9
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
11
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
11
Discussion:
Tennessee has one game, at Georgia, where they should be a double digit dog, and they will be dogs against Bama and at Oklahoma. Otherwise they will be double digit favorites against everyone else on their schedule.
Oklahoma
Expected wins:
7.7
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
5
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
6
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
10
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
Oklahoma is somewhere between this top group of teams and the next due to a very difficult schedule. They get six of the top 9 teams, including tu as always, plus a very SEC West-style grouping of with Bama, LSU, Ole Miss, and Tennessee and Mizzou to round things out. Of these six, they are only favored against Tennessee currently, though they will be double digit favorites in their other six games.
Auburn
Expected wins:
6.5
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
4
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
6
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
7
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
9
Discussion:
This marks the top of the bottom 7, and there is quite a drop off. All of the top 9 except for Oklahoma have at least 9 expected wins and all have a reasonable path to an 11- or 12-win season. Auburn does not. In fact this team is projected to just barely reach bowl eligibility. The season starts off good, with a record of 4-0 likely, but a stretch of Oklahoma, at Georgia, BYE, at Mizzou then at Kentucky could have them back to a 0.500 record by the end of October. Ending the season on a double header of Texas A&M and the Iron bowl is no easy task either.
Kentucky
Expected wins:
6.05
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
4
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
4
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
8
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
8
Discussion:
Bowl game eligibility for Kentucky this season rides on the outcomes of the South Carolina, Auburn, Florida, and Louisville games. If they can go at least 2-2 through that group, they should make it. There probably aren't many other chances to pick up or drop games outside of these, as the rest of their games should be multiple touchdown blowouts one way or the other.
Florida
Expected wins:
4.7
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
1
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
3
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
5
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
9
Discussion:
If Oklahoma, Auburn, Kentucky represent a relatively clear Tier 2 struggling with bowl eligibility, then the next few teams are a clear Tier 3 with almost no shot of getting to 6 wins. Florida at least can blame a lot of this on an absolutely atrocious schedule. They only play two teams from the bottom 7 of the conference, and play both of them in away game. On top of that, they play a very dangerous Miami team, the preseason ACC champion favorite Florida State, and a now-P4 UCF. This is why you don't schedule all P4 opponent; Florida is currently only favored in four games (Clanga, UCF, Kentucky, and their FCS opponent Samford). That is absolutely brutal. A early game against Miami is a toss-up, at least, but if Napier can find a way to get a 6th win, he's probably sticking around for another year.
USCe
Expected wins:
4.55
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
3
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
4
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
5
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
6
Discussion:
South Carolina, like most SEC schools, plays two G6 schools and one FCS school. In addition to that, they get Vanderbilt on their schedule. Those might be the only bright points in what could be a dismal season. The most competitive game of the year is projected to be at Kentucky, where they are a slight underdog. Otherwise, they are projected as double digit dogs in the other 7 games they play.
Arkansas
Expected wins:
3.95
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
2
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
3
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
4
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
6
Discussion:
Arkansas is having a rough time at the moment, with SP+ defining them as the most mediocre team in FBS (their SP+ score of 0.0 means that they would be projected to be in a dead heat with the prototypical average team this year). That's … not a good thing in the SEC these days. Like South Carolina, they have two G5 games, an FCS game, and a game against fellow bottom dweller Clanga to give them some hope. However, if the home stretch of Tennessee, LSU, (at Clanga), Ole Miss, and tu truly ends up with three triple score losses and a double score loss, Pittman will probably be out around the same time as Napier.
Clanga
Expected wins:
4.1
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
2
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
2
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
5
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
6
Discussion:
CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA PLEASE FOCUS ON ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE SCOREBOARD CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA AND THE FACT THAT WE ARE NOT PROJECTED FAVORITES AGAINST A SINGLE P4 OPPONENT CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA
Vanderbilt
Expected wins:
2.9
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
1
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
2
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
3
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
4
Discussion:
"Football? Oh yeah, we're definitely still doing it. We even have most of a stadium and everything. Still the same payout as everyone else, right? Excellent, see you next year." While walking away, a muttered "suckers" can be heard.
Each team is discussed individually. The expected wins were calculated by grouping projected spreads into groups (toss-up games, 3-7 point games, 7-14 point games, >14 point games) and assigning a win percentage to each (50%, 35/65%, 20/80%, 5/95%). I also provided the number of games with more than 2 touchdown spreads and the number with more than one touchdown spreads as two different metrics of a team's "floor" and "ceiling". Note that I assumed FCS teams were guaranteed 2+ touchdown games for all teams since SP+ does not provide data on them, though that may not be strictly true across the board (cough..Vandy...cough).
Georgia
Expected wins:
10.4
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
9
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
9
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
12
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
Georgia plays a surprisingly difficult schedule compared to their last decade or so, but as the #1 overall team by a sizeable margin, they are going to have a pre-season advantage over everyone they play. The bulldogs open the season with Clemson, and take trips to Alabama, tu, and Ole Miss throughout the year. Those three away games are the only ones they are not double-digit favorites in, however. With the playoff expanding to 12 teams this year, it would take a minor miracle for Georgia to not repeat an appearance for yet another year.
Ole Miss
Expected wins:
10.1
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
8
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
10
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
12
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
Ole Miss is definitely one of the winners of the schedule lottery this time around (and has spent the NIL $$$ accordingly). They are double digit favorites in every game they play until they go to Death Valley October 12 (and that will be right before a bye). Georgia at home is the only other game they are not currently favored in by over a touchdown. This will more likely than not be Kiffin's third 10 win season in the last four years.
Texas
Expected wins:
10.05
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
8
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
9
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
12
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
tu has the second easiest of all SEC schedules, with 1 matchup against an opponent in the top 6 of the conference (Georgia, and they get them at home). According to current SP+ rankings, there is a cliff edge between the top 9 teams and the bottom 7. tu gets 5 of these 7. They do travel for a good non-con match against Michigan early in the season, which saves their schedule a bit. Nevertheless, anything less than 8 wins here means that something has gone drastically wrong.
Mizzou
Expected wins:
9.95
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
9
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
9
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
11
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
Mizzou is the only team that can reasonably claim an easier schedule than tu. In fact, Mizzou just swaps out Georgia and Florida for Alabama and Auburn. On top of that, they have Boston College at home as the main OOC game (though they do also travel to UMass for some reason). They could be three touchdowns worse than projections (roughly as bad as Arkansas is) and still be favored in 7 of their games. They are just slightly more than touchdown dogs to Bama on the road, and projected to be essentially even with Texas A&M on the road. Oklahoma at home is theoretically the only other close game.
LSU
Expected wins:
9.65
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
6
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
9
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
12
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
LSU are projected to have three of the closest games in the SEC next year: Bama and Ole Miss at home and at Texas A&M. They are currently favored by at least a touchdown in every other matchup.
Alabama
Expected wins:
9.55
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
6
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
8
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
12
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
The mighty haven't exactly fallen hard, but they are no longer a clear #1/#2 in the SEC either. Georgia is the only game where they are currently projected to be the dogs, but they are favored by less than 8 points against Mizzou, LSU, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, which is enough to yield more uncertainty than an Alabama schedule has had for a long time.
Texas A&M
Expected wins:
9.2
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
6
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
8
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
12
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
Texas A&M gets a major break from their typical SEC West schedule with one of the easier line-ups in the conference. We are projected as roughly a touchdown dog to tu for the season closer, and games against LSU, Notre Dame, and Mizzou are projected to be within a field goal apiece. We will be at least a touchdown favorite in everything else.
Tennessee
Expected wins:
9.05
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
7
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
9
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
11
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
11
Discussion:
Tennessee has one game, at Georgia, where they should be a double digit dog, and they will be dogs against Bama and at Oklahoma. Otherwise they will be double digit favorites against everyone else on their schedule.
Oklahoma
Expected wins:
7.7
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
5
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
6
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
10
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
12
Discussion:
Oklahoma is somewhere between this top group of teams and the next due to a very difficult schedule. They get six of the top 9 teams, including tu as always, plus a very SEC West-style grouping of with Bama, LSU, Ole Miss, and Tennessee and Mizzou to round things out. Of these six, they are only favored against Tennessee currently, though they will be double digit favorites in their other six games.
Auburn
Expected wins:
6.5
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
4
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
6
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
7
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
9
Discussion:
This marks the top of the bottom 7, and there is quite a drop off. All of the top 9 except for Oklahoma have at least 9 expected wins and all have a reasonable path to an 11- or 12-win season. Auburn does not. In fact this team is projected to just barely reach bowl eligibility. The season starts off good, with a record of 4-0 likely, but a stretch of Oklahoma, at Georgia, BYE, at Mizzou then at Kentucky could have them back to a 0.500 record by the end of October. Ending the season on a double header of Texas A&M and the Iron bowl is no easy task either.
Kentucky
Expected wins:
6.05
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
4
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
4
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
8
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
8
Discussion:
Bowl game eligibility for Kentucky this season rides on the outcomes of the South Carolina, Auburn, Florida, and Louisville games. If they can go at least 2-2 through that group, they should make it. There probably aren't many other chances to pick up or drop games outside of these, as the rest of their games should be multiple touchdown blowouts one way or the other.
Florida
Expected wins:
4.7
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
1
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
3
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
5
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
9
Discussion:
If Oklahoma, Auburn, Kentucky represent a relatively clear Tier 2 struggling with bowl eligibility, then the next few teams are a clear Tier 3 with almost no shot of getting to 6 wins. Florida at least can blame a lot of this on an absolutely atrocious schedule. They only play two teams from the bottom 7 of the conference, and play both of them in away game. On top of that, they play a very dangerous Miami team, the preseason ACC champion favorite Florida State, and a now-P4 UCF. This is why you don't schedule all P4 opponent; Florida is currently only favored in four games (Clanga, UCF, Kentucky, and their FCS opponent Samford). That is absolutely brutal. A early game against Miami is a toss-up, at least, but if Napier can find a way to get a 6th win, he's probably sticking around for another year.
USCe
Expected wins:
4.55
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
3
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
4
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
5
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
6
Discussion:
South Carolina, like most SEC schools, plays two G6 schools and one FCS school. In addition to that, they get Vanderbilt on their schedule. Those might be the only bright points in what could be a dismal season. The most competitive game of the year is projected to be at Kentucky, where they are a slight underdog. Otherwise, they are projected as double digit dogs in the other 7 games they play.
Arkansas
Expected wins:
3.95
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
2
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
3
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
4
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
6
Discussion:
Arkansas is having a rough time at the moment, with SP+ defining them as the most mediocre team in FBS (their SP+ score of 0.0 means that they would be projected to be in a dead heat with the prototypical average team this year). That's … not a good thing in the SEC these days. Like South Carolina, they have two G5 games, an FCS game, and a game against fellow bottom dweller Clanga to give them some hope. However, if the home stretch of Tennessee, LSU, (at Clanga), Ole Miss, and tu truly ends up with three triple score losses and a double score loss, Pittman will probably be out around the same time as Napier.
Clanga
Expected wins:
4.1
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
2
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
2
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
5
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
6
Discussion:
CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA PLEASE FOCUS ON ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE SCOREBOARD CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA AND THE FACT THAT WE ARE NOT PROJECTED FAVORITES AGAINST A SINGLE P4 OPPONENT CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA
Vanderbilt
Expected wins:
2.9
Games favored by at least two touchdowns:
1
Games favored by at least one touchdown:
2
Games favored or underdogs by less than one touchdowns:
3
Games favored or underdogs by less than two touchdowns:
4
Discussion:
"Football? Oh yeah, we're definitely still doing it. We even have most of a stadium and everything. Still the same payout as everyone else, right? Excellent, see you next year." While walking away, a muttered "suckers" can be heard.
