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it probably won't happen. I am not trolling, I just don't have my head buried in the sand.

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I'm not sure it's the sand where we think you have your head buried!

Divining Rod said:

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Quote:

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it probably won't happen. I am not trolling, I just don't have my head buried in the sand.

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I'm not sure it's the sand where we think you have your head buried!

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What have I said that is wrong? I'll wait.

1. Defense has improved
2. Offense stalled in the second half against Arkansas
3. We have not played a solid full game yet and that's what it takes to beat Alabama

im just playing with ya... lighten up

Divining Rod said:

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im just playing with ya... lighten up

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Sorry. I'm just sick of being called a troll for pointing out obvious issues that need to be addressed with this team. Everyone is acting like we have arrived or something because we beat 2 of the 3 worst teams in the West.

My attitude will change if we win this weekend, but that will most likely also mean we finally played a clean game with limited turnovers and unforced penalties

BAMA is a 2.5 point favorite

I think we definitey saw a different defense, but I am concerned with our run blocking and most of all with MJ's decision making.


Like at end of game when only possible way we could lose (leading by 18 I think and 5 or so minutes left) was to turn ball over. A bad snap and not a critical down- just eat it. Instead he forces a handoff with no time or space to execute it properly and we give them the ball. You need to be THINKING before the play even starts, telling yourself "anything but a turnover is fine".

And after that 2nd half pick 6, he came close to another one later. Again, with the first pick 6, you have to be AWARE of that game-changing scenario being a possibility.

txaggieacct85 said:

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BAMA is a 2.5 point favorite

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LOL, yeah the line has moved from -10 at open to -2.5.

And just think, we are not ranked.

Since I've bet and won a few farms this year, I guess it's time to pull a rare 3 farms bet on this one

Down to Bama -1.5

BMX Bandit said:

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Down to Bama -1.5

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a lot of smart money on the Ags to win outright driving the line down.

Cheyenne Bodie said:

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Bryanisbest said:

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We almost beat them last yr and they had a tremendous QB. They don't have a good QB this year. We are better than last year. Time is ripe for upset.

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Milroe played that game, didn't he?

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I think what he's trying to say is that Milroe was tremendous last year and sucks now.

Logos Stick said:

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txaggieacct85 said:

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BAMA is a 2.5 point favorite

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LOL, yeah the line has moved from -10 at open to -2.5.

And just think, we are not ranked.

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Are you defining March as open? Otherwise blatantly false.

HoustonAg2106 said:

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Divining Rod said:

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Quote:

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it probably won't happen. I am not trolling, I just don't have my head buried in the sand.

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I'm not sure it's the sand where we think you have your head buried!

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What have I said that is wrong? I'll wait.

1. Defense has improved
2. Offense stalled in the second half against Arkansas
3. We have not played a solid full game yet and that's what it takes to beat Alabama

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As for 3, I'm just not sure this is true.

On a per play basis, we are performing better than bama based on nearly every advanced model. This is not 2019 or 2021 A&M going up against 2019/2021 bama. We do not need to play a solid full game on both sides of the ball for four quarters. In fact, I will say it now. We will have a mediocre quarter. Maybe even 2 offensively.

What we CAN'T have, is when we are having that mediocre quarter, also gift them a pick 6 or fumble 6. We can't have 3 turnovers in a half (fortunately, this was a one-off and not the norm for Max).

But in terms of having to play solid for all 4 quarters? Defensively I tend to agree we need to (and we have played complete games in back-to-back weeks), but not offensively. Offense just needs to get theirs when they can and defense can keep us in it all game if we don't give it away.

You could just as easily argue that Bama needs to play a solid, full game to beat us. If they have a quarter they don't show up, our defense can shut them down and we can have a 10-14 point swing on them, too.

HoustonAg2106 said:

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Divining Rod said:

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im just playing with ya... lighten up

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Sorry. I'm just sick of being called a troll for pointing out obvious issues that need to be addressed with this team. Everyone is acting like we have arrived or something because we beat 2 of the 3 worst teams in the West.

My attitude will change if we win this weekend, but that will most likely also mean we finally played a clean game with limited turnovers and unforced penalties

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We will see where they finish in the west. They may or may not be 2 of the 3 worst. But I have no doubts we made both look worse than they really are. Very few have acted like we have "arrived" either. But not sure if you can't see this, Bama also hasn't arrived. No matter how much people like you pretend that "Bama" on their chest is the same as it was a few years ago. Simply not the case.

All that matters is THIS years A&M and Bama teams. Seeing as how the line is moving, and as all models are predicting extremely close games with many even having us winning outright, it's damn near a 50/50 game.

HoustonAg2106 said:

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Divining Rod said:

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im just playing with ya... lighten up

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Sorry. I'm just sick of being called a troll for pointing out obvious issues that need to be addressed with this team. Everyone is acting like we have arrived or something because we beat 2 of the 3 worst teams in the West.

My attitude will change if we win this weekend, but that will most likely also mean we finally played a clean game with limited turnovers and unforced penalties

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I'd normally feel the same way but look at both team's game stats in the SEC games we won, and then look at those same opponents' stats in their other SEC games.

We handled both wins alot better than other SEC teams have played them. That's what gives me hope for this year.

10-2 or 11-1 this year. Gig 'Em.

I'm seeing some betting sites with Bama at -1. I'm thinking by game time its a push. Bama's bout to get jacked up.

beerad12man said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Divining Rod said:

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im just playing with ya... lighten up

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Sorry. I'm just sick of being called a troll for pointing out obvious issues that need to be addressed with this team. Everyone is acting like we have arrived or something because we beat 2 of the 3 worst teams in the West.

My attitude will change if we win this weekend, but that will most likely also mean we finally played a clean game with limited turnovers and unforced penalties

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We will see where they finish in the west. They may or may not be 2 of the 3 worst. But I have no doubts we made both look worse than they really are. Very few have acted like we have "arrived" either. But not sure if you can't see this, Bama also hasn't arrived. No matter how much people like you pretend that "Bama" on their chest is the same as it was a few years ago. Simply not the case.

All that matters is THIS years A&M and Bama teams. Seeing as how the line is moving, and as all models are predicting extremely close games with many even having us winning outright, it's damn near a 50/50 game.

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I assure you the bottom three teams in the West at the end of the year will be some combination of Arkansas, Auburn, and Mississippi State.

And maybe not you, but yes plenty of people on here are acting like we are for sure going 11-1 or 10-2 and punching a ticket to Atlanta. I agree this isn't the normal Alabama team and the spread reflects that, but they are still a team with elite level talent throughout the roster and we can't play offense like we did the first half of Auburn or the second half of Arkansas if we want to win.

Dad said:

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Cheyenne Bodie said:

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Bryanisbest said:

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We almost beat them last yr and they had a tremendous QB. They don't have a good QB this year. We are better than last year. Time is ripe for upset.

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Milroe played that game, didn't he?

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I think what he's trying to say is that Milroe was tremendous last year and sucks now.

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No. I was wrong. Bryce was out that game. Milroe played. My apologies

Milroe had a terrible game last year, Bama had a 3 turnover disadvantage, and still beat us by 4. It is not unreasonable that they are favored by a touchdown (or whatever). They are likely the better team still. The one nice thing is that we have Max Johnson at QB and a bit of age compared to the team last year. Is it enough to overcome the obvious gap from 2022?

PeekingDuck said:

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Milroe had a terrible game last year, Bama had a 3 turnover disadvantage, and still beat us by 4. It is not unreasonable that they are favored by a touchdown (or whatever). They are likely the better team still. The one nice thing is that we have Max Johnson at QB and a bit of age compared to the team last year. Is it enough to overcome the obvious gap from 2022?

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They're favored by 1

Well, I hope we beat them by 40.

HoustonAg2106 said:

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beerad12man said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Divining Rod said:

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im just playing with ya... lighten up

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Sorry. I'm just sick of being called a troll for pointing out obvious issues that need to be addressed with this team. Everyone is acting like we have arrived or something because we beat 2 of the 3 worst teams in the West.

My attitude will change if we win this weekend, but that will most likely also mean we finally played a clean game with limited turnovers and unforced penalties

---

We will see where they finish in the west. They may or may not be 2 of the 3 worst. But I have no doubts we made both look worse than they really are. Very few have acted like we have "arrived" either. But not sure if you can't see this, Bama also hasn't arrived. No matter how much people like you pretend that "Bama" on their chest is the same as it was a few years ago. Simply not the case.

All that matters is THIS years A&M and Bama teams. Seeing as how the line is moving, and as all models are predicting extremely close games with many even having us winning outright, it's damn near a 50/50 game.

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I assure you the bottom three teams in the West at the end of the year will be some combination of Arkansas, Auburn, and Mississippi State.

And maybe not you, but yes plenty of people on here are acting like we are for sure going 11-1 or 10-2 and punching a ticket to Atlanta. I agree this isn't the normal Alabama team and the spread reflects that, but they are still a team with elite level talent throughout the roster and we can't play offense like we did the first half of Auburn or the second half of Arkansas if we want to win.

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I placed a bet in Vegas several months ago that we are going to win the natty. So that's what we're going to do.

PeekingDuck said:

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Milroe had a terrible game last year, Bama had a 3 turnover disadvantage, and still beat us by 4. It is not unreasonable that they are favored by a touchdown (or whatever). They are likely the better team still. The one nice thing is that we have Max Johnson at QB and a bit of age compared to the team last year. Is it enough to overcome the obvious gap from 2022?

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It would be extremely unreasonable for bama 2023 to be favored by a touchdown over A&M 2023. As judging by how it started at 3.5 and the line continues to shrink as it is. I can't imagine how quickly a touchdown line would have dropped.

I think Bama is going to win by seven to ten points, but the line being -1 is PERFECT for the emotional hedge bet. Take Alabama -1 and even when A&M loses, at least you still profit.

This is a good point. How much money is an A&M victory worth to you?

PeekingDuck said:

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This is a good point. How much money is an A&M victory worth to you?

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I do this all the time. Emotional hedge.

beerad12man said:

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PeekingDuck said:

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Milroe had a terrible game last year, Bama had a 3 turnover disadvantage, and still beat us by 4. It is not unreasonable that they are favored by a touchdown (or whatever). They are likely the better team still. The one nice thing is that we have Max Johnson at QB and a bit of age compared to the team last year. Is it enough to overcome the obvious gap from 2022?

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It would be extremely unreasonable for bama 2023 to be favored by a touchdown over A&M 2023. As judging by how it started at 3.5 and the line continues to shrink as it is. I can't imagine how quickly a touchdown line would have dropped.

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I thought it did start as a touchdown line when it opened? The title of this thread is Bama -7.5 if you haven't noticed