Every fan base falls to this same logic. They look at the baseline, and they assume that every future variable goes to the positive.
They never account for injuries, but injuries always happen.
They never account for unexpected departures, but some players always leave.
They never account for coaching changes, but it's rare that a staff remains fully intact.
They always assume that their new position coaches are improvements on the last, but sometimes they are not.
They always assume that young players will improve, but some simply don't.
They always assume that their recruits will live up to their billing, but many will underperform.
They always assume that the team chemistry will improve, but sometimes it declines.
And most notably, they always assume that their improvements will surpass those of their opponents, but in fact, every team is doing absolutely everything they can to improve. So so you might improve, and still not surpass some others.