QB1 said:
Chris sims 2.0?
This is Simms x10. How often do you get a close relative of two super bowl champs plus Archie. This kid is going to be under a crazy microscope his entire career.
Arch Manning a true 3 star??
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Last: 3 yr ago by Ags77
This is Simms x10. How often do you get a close relative of two super bowl champs plus Archie. This kid is going to be under a crazy microscope his entire career.
Think about the CANT MISS RECRUITS that missed…
The list is LONG…
The list is LONG…
Imagine the chaos in Austin if crap hits the fan with Manning behind center. Pretty sure the donors will side with the first family of football versus Sark on anything.
I've always heard 5* just means that the kid has around a 90% chance of getting to the NFL. 4* is around 75%, and 3* around 50%. There is not a whole lot of correlation to college performance.
A great example would be Kyle Allen. 5*, Sucked it up while he was here (not really his fault imo), had 1 decent year at Houston, then ended up on an NFL team. So even though in college he could be considered a bust, the rating was accurate.
If I'm wrong about the above, someone please correct me, but that's what I've heard.
A great example would be Kyle Allen. 5*, Sucked it up while he was here (not really his fault imo), had 1 decent year at Houston, then ended up on an NFL team. So even though in college he could be considered a bust, the rating was accurate.
If I'm wrong about the above, someone please correct me, but that's what I've heard.
rangerdanger said:
Imagine the chaos in Austin if crap hits the fan with Manning behind center. Pretty sure the donors will side with the first family of football versus Sark on anything.
The hope is that Arch isn't that good, but him being there also keeps away top QB prospects.
One thing is that Arch picking Texas when he could write his own ticket anywhere makes me think winning football games is not his top priority, which makes me wonder how great he'll really be. I think that's one piece of how so many highly rated players don't pan out here - talented guys who care first and foremost about playing for the best coaches alongside the best players and bringing home the most hardware end up somewhere like Tuscaloosa. Talented guys who think spending their college years in Tuscaloosa doesn't sound very fun and would rather party and hang out in Austin end up at Texas. That makes a big difference.
If you look at his tape he looks like a 3 star and he is not playing great competition
That's a stretch. Last year, Manning was competing against linemen that were only slightly bigger than him. It will be a jump for any kid coming from 3A ball to playing OU, Iowa, Baylor, UCF, and Cinn defenses.merch said:
His competition isn't going to be that big of an adjustment in Big XII, let's be honest. Most people are talking like the 5-7 longhorns are one of favorites to win that league. Not exactly a league with great defensive players.
Not to mention, the Horns may be in the SEC by the time Manning is starting.
Jimbo4win said:
He looks worse than Kyle Allen who couldn't even start at Houston but I'm sure he'll be okay..
And Allen has been a starter in the league
If history is any guide, he'll be playing backup at Utah next year.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
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-Havelock Vetinari
Ags77 said:Emilio Fantastico said:
What's funny/strange about Gilbert is that he is seen as an abject failure because he was so hyped but he is still kicking around the NFL after 7 seasons. Granted, he has mostly been a practice squad guy but look how many guys that were superstars in college that haven't been able to hang around anywhere close to that long.
Absolutely. His skill set has given him a long backup career. Nothing against the young man. I was referring to his time at Texas. He actually played better at SMU.
TBF, they sucked while he was there.
I don't know where you heard that, but the numbers across the board are way lower than that. Think about it: there are 7 rounds in the draft and 32 teams. That's only 224 spots. And that's assuming everyone drafted makes the roster which doesn't happen, but a few guys make it that aren't drafted as well, so let's assume for convenience that 224 guys per year make it (although my gut says the number is under 224). Last year 247 had 426 guys rated 4 star or higher, so even if they had perfect ratings, only about half of the 4 star or higher guys would be expected to make an NFL roster. Plus, look at any 5 star list from 4 or 5 years ago. There are plenty of guys that never do anything, and plenty more that played but sucked (especially the ones that go to Texas lol).Definitely Not A Cop said:
I've always heard 5* just means that the kid has around a 90% chance of getting to the NFL. 4* is around 75%, and 3* around 50%. There is not a whole lot of correlation to college performance.
A great example would be Kyle Allen. 5*, Sucked it up while he was here (not really his fault imo), had 1 decent year at Houston, then ended up on an NFL team. So even though in college he could be considered a bust, the rating was accurate.
If I'm wrong about the above, someone please correct me, but that's what I've heard.
Anyway, even though every 4 star thinks they are going in either round 1 or round 2 at worst, that really is not the case.
I've heard something similar before, but with way more skewed numbers. A quick internet search just now sited 2010-2014 classes have 61% of 5-stars, 23% of 4-stars, and 5% of 3-stars getting drafted by the NFL. As others have mentioned, the ratings aren't perfect, but there is generally some meaning.
That sounds about right. I almost put in a guess on 5 star and 4 star, and it was going to be 60% on 5 star (outside of QB where all ratings look pretty terrible after the fact, these are guys that are such extreme athletic freaks that they should make it so long as they don't get injured, F up, or stop progressing… which unfortunately happens a little less than half the time) and 25% on 4 star (just seems like about 1 in 4 end up being really good to me; guess even I'm a little overly optimistic).
BTW, back to the original topic, I may look like an idiot 3-4 years from now, but I really truly believe people are rating Arch high because they don't want to be the dummy that gets made fun of for not anointing the next chosen QB from the House of Manning. So everyone crowns the guy even though he's playing against not very great teams and not really putting up amazing numbers (OK numbers, but far from eye-popping).
Im not going to say he's a 3 star that seems like a bit too far but a perfect 1.0 rating seems overboard. I remember the hype Justin Fields and Trevor Lawerence got during High school and their tape looks way better then Arch's.
QB1 said:
Chris sims 2.0?
This is an apt comparison for many reasons though probably not as intended. Chris Sims, while a competent QB in college who will forever be remembered as part of the applewhite starting battle, was a tremendous recruiting coup for Mack Brown, the new tu coach trying to right the ship after years of subpar performances.
That commitment made tu the hottest brand in football- they subsequently signed the number one defensive player of the year (Corey Redding) in that cycle and set the tone for a decade of top five classes.
I'm hoping that Arch doesn't have quite the same effect but the other recruits making their selections thus far do bode well for them.
The guy screams 3* talent to me watching the tape. Big numbers but against low competition. His motion looks off and slow. Most of the passes I see are around the body but off target to the side or underthrown. The value is in the name and the bonus that goes with that.
It doesn't matter if Arch pans out or not. His ability to bring in other 5/4 star guys now is a win for sip.
Star power matters.
Star power matters.
“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” - John Adams
“It is easier to fool someone than it is to convince them they’ve been fooled” - Mark Twain
“It is easier to fool someone than it is to convince them they’ve been fooled” - Mark Twain
This is true. As long as he doesn't decommit if they suck again this year or if he doesn't **** the bed against lower level HS competition.
It's been said that he could go to any program but I REALLY wonder if that is actually true. I find it compelling the timing of Holstein's commitment to Alabama. I also really do wonder if Georgia cooled on him as well. I recall the story about Tate Martell visiting A&M after he had already committed to us. My understanding is that we(mainly Mazonne) had continued to watch film on Martell and decided he had no interest in him thank goodness..So from what I understand, Mazzone and Sumlin just ignored Martell and his family while he was at A&M on a visit. Martell got the message and the rest is history. He decommitted and proceeded to suck everywhere he went. One does have to wonder if more and more coaches have now had time to watch Manning's film and have decided they have ZERO interest in him. Texas(which is a desperate program with a desperate head coach) may actually be one of the few programs still interested in Manning(other than SMU types).
I mean, I don't think he's going to be "Tyrone Swoopes-bad" but it there were any more blatant example needed of how far 247 is up tu's poop chute in regards to ratings, this kid is it. 1.000? Seriously?
This is Hookfin-level stuff
This is Hookfin-level stuff
When I've seen clips of him he looks like a high 3 star. Given his family pedigree I could see bumping him to a 4 star because it just seems like all Manning QBs end up in the NFL.
I don't get putting him as the #1 guy. He's not even close.
I don't get putting him as the #1 guy. He's not even close.
He's not very good.Dad said:
When I've seen clips of him he looks like a high 3 star. Given his family pedigree I could see bumping him to a 4 star because it just seems like all Manning QBs end up in the NFL.
I don't get putting him as the #1 guy. He's not even close.
dixichkn said:
I mean, I don't think he's going to be "Tyrone Swoopes-bad" but it there were any more blatant example needed of how far 247 is up tu's poop chute in regards to ratings, this kid is it. 1.000? Seriously?
This is Hookfin-level stuff
This isn't a Hoofkin treatment because if it was a Hoofkin you'd see Arch go from a low 4 star to a 1.00 greatest recruit everrrrrrr as soon as he committed to tu.
Arch was a 1.00 as soon as the services found out there was a manning throwing a football somewhere. He's overrated because of his last name
Actual Talking Thermos said:
One thing is that Arch picking Texas when he could write his own ticket anywhere makes me think winning football games is not his top priority, which makes me wonder how great he'll really be. I think that's one piece of how so many highly rated players don't pan out here - talented guys who care first and foremost about playing for the best coaches alongside the best players and bringing home the most hardware end up somewhere like Tuscaloosa. Talented guys who think spending their college years in Tuscaloosa doesn't sound very fun and would rather party and hang out in Austin end up at Texas. That makes a big difference.
Knowing that you are a sip, is this based on your observations of how things have played out in Austin over the last decade or so?
There certainly has to be some sort of team culture issue that turns top 10 recruiting classes into 5-7 teams.
Jimbo4win said:
It's been said that he could go to any program but I REALLY wonder if that is actually true. I find it compelling the timing of Holstein's commitment to Alabama. I also really do wonder if Georgia cooled on him as well. I recall the story about Tate Martell visiting A&M after he had already committed to us. My understanding is that we(mainly Mazonne) had continued to watch film on Martell and decided he had no interest in him thank goodness..So from what I understand, Mazzone and Sumlin just ignored Martell and his family while he was at A&M on a visit. Martell got the message and the rest is history. He decommitted and proceeded to suck everywhere he went. One does have to wonder if more and more coaches have now had time to watch Manning's film and have decided they have ZERO interest in him. Texas(which is a desperate program with a desperate head coach) may actually be one of the few programs still interested in Manning(other than SMU types).
Oh my. The number one ranked player in the country was down to Texas and Smu types, lol. You can't make this stuff up folks.
Ags77 said:Jimbo4win said:
It's been said that he could go to any program but I REALLY wonder if that is actually true. I find it compelling the timing of Holstein's commitment to Alabama. I also really do wonder if Georgia cooled on him as well. I recall the story about Tate Martell visiting A&M after he had already committed to us. My understanding is that we(mainly Mazonne) had continued to watch film on Martell and decided he had no interest in him thank goodness..So from what I understand, Mazzone and Sumlin just ignored Martell and his family while he was at A&M on a visit. Martell got the message and the rest is history. He decommitted and proceeded to suck everywhere he went. One does have to wonder if more and more coaches have now had time to watch Manning's film and have decided they have ZERO interest in him. Texas(which is a desperate program with a desperate head coach) may actually be one of the few programs still interested in Manning(other than SMU types).
Oh my. The number one ranked player in the country was down to Texas and Smu types, lol. You can't make this stuff up folks.
Yeah this wins for worst take of the day though I suppose there is still time to take back the mantle.
Ags77 said:Jimbo4win said:
It's been said that he could go to any program but I REALLY wonder if that is actually true. I find it compelling the timing of Holstein's commitment to Alabama. I also really do wonder if Georgia cooled on him as well. I recall the story about Tate Martell visiting A&M after he had already committed to us. My understanding is that we(mainly Mazonne) had continued to watch film on Martell and decided he had no interest in him thank goodness..So from what I understand, Mazzone and Sumlin just ignored Martell and his family while he was at A&M on a visit. Martell got the message and the rest is history. He decommitted and proceeded to suck everywhere he went. One does have to wonder if more and more coaches have now had time to watch Manning's film and have decided they have ZERO interest in him. Texas(which is a desperate program with a desperate head coach) may actually be one of the few programs still interested in Manning(other than SMU types).
Oh my. The number one ranked player in the country was down to Texas and Smu types, lol. You can't make this stuff up folks.
Where was Tate Martell ranked? He was a 5 star. Coaches do their own assessments.
levypantsEOY said:Ags77 said:Jimbo4win said:
It's been said that he could go to any program but I REALLY wonder if that is actually true. I find it compelling the timing of Holstein's commitment to Alabama. I also really do wonder if Georgia cooled on him as well. I recall the story about Tate Martell visiting A&M after he had already committed to us. My understanding is that we(mainly Mazonne) had continued to watch film on Martell and decided he had no interest in him thank goodness..So from what I understand, Mazzone and Sumlin just ignored Martell and his family while he was at A&M on a visit. Martell got the message and the rest is history. He decommitted and proceeded to suck everywhere he went. One does have to wonder if more and more coaches have now had time to watch Manning's film and have decided they have ZERO interest in him. Texas(which is a desperate program with a desperate head coach) may actually be one of the few programs still interested in Manning(other than SMU types).
Oh my. The number one ranked player in the country was down to Texas and Smu types, lol. You can't make this stuff up folks.
Yeah this wins for worst take of the day though I suppose there is still time to take back the mantle.
Coming from you, this means my take is absolutely SPOT ON.
Jimbo4win said:Ags77 said:Jimbo4win said:
It's been said that he could go to any program but I REALLY wonder if that is actually true. I find it compelling the timing of Holstein's commitment to Alabama. I also really do wonder if Georgia cooled on him as well. I recall the story about Tate Martell visiting A&M after he had already committed to us. My understanding is that we(mainly Mazonne) had continued to watch film on Martell and decided he had no interest in him thank goodness..So from what I understand, Mazzone and Sumlin just ignored Martell and his family while he was at A&M on a visit. Martell got the message and the rest is history. He decommitted and proceeded to suck everywhere he went. One does have to wonder if more and more coaches have now had time to watch Manning's film and have decided they have ZERO interest in him. Texas(which is a desperate program with a desperate head coach) may actually be one of the few programs still interested in Manning(other than SMU types).
Oh my. The number one ranked player in the country was down to Texas and Smu types, lol. You can't make this stuff up folks.
Where was Tate Martell ranked? He was a 5 star. Coaches do their own assessments.
Not to mention-his top 5 was LITERALLY Bama, Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and SMU. Bama and Georgia said HELL NO. Bama knows Holstein is WAY better than Manning, Genius..
Sorry to burst y'alls bubble, but Manning is a take whether he is a 3-star or a 6-star. His measurables and statistics are irrelevant.
In the days of NIL, exposure = money. And there will be hype and a media circus where ever Manning chooses to go. That will attract other star players looking to ride that hype train to NIL $$$.
So even if Manning is a 3-star, overrated bust on the field, his commitment has brought Texas other high profile commitments that they might not have gotten otherwise.
In the days of NIL, exposure = money. And there will be hype and a media circus where ever Manning chooses to go. That will attract other star players looking to ride that hype train to NIL $$$.
So even if Manning is a 3-star, overrated bust on the field, his commitment has brought Texas other high profile commitments that they might not have gotten otherwise.
Jimbo4win said:Jimbo4win said:Ags77 said:Jimbo4win said:
It's been said that he could go to any program but I REALLY wonder if that is actually true. I find it compelling the timing of Holstein's commitment to Alabama. I also really do wonder if Georgia cooled on him as well. I recall the story about Tate Martell visiting A&M after he had already committed to us. My understanding is that we(mainly Mazonne) had continued to watch film on Martell and decided he had no interest in him thank goodness..So from what I understand, Mazzone and Sumlin just ignored Martell and his family while he was at A&M on a visit. Martell got the message and the rest is history. He decommitted and proceeded to suck everywhere he went. One does have to wonder if more and more coaches have now had time to watch Manning's film and have decided they have ZERO interest in him. Texas(which is a desperate program with a desperate head coach) may actually be one of the few programs still interested in Manning(other than SMU types).
Oh my. The number one ranked player in the country was down to Texas and Smu types, lol. You can't make this stuff up folks.
Where was Tate Martell ranked? He was a 5 star. Coaches do their own assessments.
Not to mention-his top 5 was LITERALLY Bama, Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and SMU. Bama and Georgia said HELL NO. Bama knows Holstein is WAY better than Manning, Genius..
He could have gone to ANY of them.
No guarantee that he ever starts. But, I'm not knocking the kid, he has the rating for a reason.Citizen Reign said:That's a stretch. Last year, Manning was competing against linemen that were only slightly bigger than him. It will be a jump for any kid coming from 3A ball to playing OU, Iowa, Baylor, UCF, and Cinn defenses.merch said:
His competition isn't going to be that big of an adjustment in Big XII, let's be honest. Most people are talking like the 5-7 longhorns are one of favorites to win that league. Not exactly a league with great defensive players.
Not to mention, the Horns may be in the SEC by the time Manning is starting.
Jimbo4win said:levypantsEOY said:Ags77 said:Jimbo4win said:
It's been said that he could go to any program but I REALLY wonder if that is actually true. I find it compelling the timing of Holstein's commitment to Alabama. I also really do wonder if Georgia cooled on him as well. I recall the story about Tate Martell visiting A&M after he had already committed to us. My understanding is that we(mainly Mazonne) had continued to watch film on Martell and decided he had no interest in him thank goodness..So from what I understand, Mazzone and Sumlin just ignored Martell and his family while he was at A&M on a visit. Martell got the message and the rest is history. He decommitted and proceeded to suck everywhere he went. One does have to wonder if more and more coaches have now had time to watch Manning's film and have decided they have ZERO interest in him. Texas(which is a desperate program with a desperate head coach) may actually be one of the few programs still interested in Manning(other than SMU types).
Oh my. The number one ranked player in the country was down to Texas and Smu types, lol. You can't make this stuff up folks.
Yeah this wins for worst take of the day though I suppose there is still time to take back the mantle.
Coming from you, this means my take is absolutely SPOT ON.
So just to be clear and to follow your obviously well thought out plot line-
Manning wasn't really offered by the top programs- none of them wanted him. In actuality, tu won out over just a few schools still willing to take a flyer (SMU, for example) on the number one player in the country (which, again, is a conspiracy).
Just want to make sure I understand this obviously ironclad logic.
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