bryanw1995 said:
Aggieair said:
tex 93 said:
Going to the SEC. This all assumes ND is forced by circumstances (such as two super-conferences) to give up their independence.
I know a lot of y'all don't want it. But it's the same as everyone who didn't want t.u. in the SEC. Those brands are worth an enormous amount of money, therefore, even though it's in Indiana, if ND asked to join, the SEC powers that be would jump on ND like kids on a trampoline. And besides Indiana is contiguous with the SEC via KY, and arguably we already have a Midwest team in Mizzou.
I know the B1G seems like the obvious choice for ND, but if it's so obvious, why did they partner with the ACC instead of B1G? Evidently, there is a lot of documented bad blood between ND and the B1G going back for decades. And I've not seen anything that makes me think they'll put that aside yet. Granted, money trumps all, so I'm not saying they'll never join the B1G. It's just that knowing the history, it's not implausible to see them in the SEC, and at this point we have the most money anyway.
If the ACC folds, it's because their last hope (Notre Dame) joined the Big Ten.
As to why they partnered with the ACC, that's easy. It's because the ACC was that desperate. Notre Dame is like Texas. They tried approaching the B1G before, and wanted either partial membership for a scheduling agreement, or that they could keep their additional media deal with NBC on top of conference revenue. The B1G told them to pound sand, just like the SEC would. The ACC however, was foolish enough to take them up on it.
That way Notre Dame got to keep its own TV network, and schedule a weak enough schedule to waltz into the BCS/CFP/NY6 every year.
And here's something to see that should make you think they'll put that aside- the B1G is estimated to be distributing $80M-100M per school in their next media deal with the additions of USC/UCLA. Notre Dame gets $15M per year from NBC, and $10M per year from the ACC as a partial member currently.
Keep in mind that ND's broadcast rights are up for renewal in 2025. They will make a windfall from that…the way I look at it is that ND has strong bargaining power with potential broadcast partners and it's clearly worth more by itself than the avg SEC or B1G team. However, a strong conference has more clout than one very strong school in negotiations, so maybe cut their value down to 1/2 to 2/3 if going solo vs in a conference.
Just spitballing here but I think you could make an argument that their current broadcast value is around $100m. So they could get $50-$66m, plus the extra $7m from ACC, in their new rights deal. They'll time deal to end around the same time SEC ACC and B1G deals end, giving them maximum flexibility when the next NEXT round of realignment rolls around.
Considering how much they value their independence, I think that puts them close enough to parity with B1G and SEC schools that they will do it.
I don't think they can get on their own anywhere near what the B1G is offering. My understanding is that the NBC deal is only for 5 home games a year. Even if NBC agrees to pay them $10M+ per home game, which is about what your numbers would require, they're still going to fall significantly short of the $80M-100M that the B1G is projected to get.
Not to mention, Notre Dame would be relegating themselves to continue playing the likes of Boston College, Wake Forest, Virginia, Duke, etc., when they could be earning a lot more playing marquee matchups against the likes of Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Penn St, etc. It's the same reason that OU and tu's media rights are worth a lot more when they're playing SEC teams as opposed to when they're playing Big 12 teams.
Plus, Notre Dame has been a perennial underachiever for over two decades now. Another decade of being a perennial underachiever as an independent is not going to help Notre Dame's brand. The B1G could add Oregon and Washington now, and decide they no longer need Notre Dame by the time the late 2030's roll around.
