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Jimbo's Offensive Predictions for 2022

7,864 Views | 78 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by cevans_40
Traveler
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cevans_40 said:

This is the type of **** that makes me want to drown puppies. What are your coaching qualifications OP?
yes, only coaches are qualified to state factual numbers like YPG rankings.

I'd tell you to get a dog, but apparently you'd just drown it.
vander54
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Stolen from ConfidentAg in premium

ConfidentAg said:

Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.

I pulled together national rankings in play success rates for the past national champions since 2013 plus some others so I could see the effect in coaching changes. (Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma)

The chart titled Jimbo includes his time at Florida State and Texas A&M.

Also color coded what's good and what's bad so it's easier to see trends.

O-SR: Overall offensive success rate
O-Rush SR: Rushing play success rate
O-Pass SR: Passing play success rate

D-SR: overall defensive success rate
D-Rush SR: Rushing play success rate
D-Pass SR: Passing play success rate









Traveler
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cevans_40 said:


This is a result of a QB who is not good at throwing the deep ball and receivers who can't just run by DB's.
Painful to say after your idiotic initial post, but I agree with you - this has been a huge issue.
Ags have been one of the least explosive teams in CFB - offenses NEED deep threats/explosive plays, and our receivers/QB have just not delivered during that last two (three? four?) years in that department.
Can't keep counting on only the run game and tight-ends for the big chunk plays.
cevans_40
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Traveler said:

cevans_40 said:

This is the type of **** that makes me want to drown puppies. What are your coaching qualifications OP?
yes, only coaches are qualified to state factual numbers like YPG rankings.

I'd tell you to get a dog, but apparently you'd just drown it.

No but anyone who just looks at one specific stat is an idiot. HTH
cevans_40
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Traveler said:

cevans_40 said:


This is a result of a QB who is not good at throwing the deep ball and receivers who can't just run by DB's.
Painful to say after your idiotic initial post, but I agree with you - this has been a huge issue.
Ags have been one of the least explosive teams in CFB - offenses NEED deep threats/explosive plays, and our receivers/QB have just not delivered during that last two (three? four?) years in that department.
Can't keep counting on only the run game and tight-ends for the big chunk plays.

What's even more worrisome is if you look at how defenses play us (a ton of loaded boxes), we should have good success in throwing the deep ball. But that has not been the case. Mond would constantly overthrow balls and Zach would get happy feet or overthrow as well.
Traveler
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cevans_40 said:

Traveler said:



Ags have been one of the least explosive teams in CFB - offenses NEED deep threats/explosive plays, and our receivers/QB have just not delivered during that last two (three? four?) years in that department.
Can't keep counting on only the run game and tight-ends for the big chunk plays.

What's even more worrisome is if you look at how defenses play us (a ton of loaded boxes), we should have good success in throwing the deep ball. But that has not been the case. Mond would constantly overthrow balls and Zach would get happy feet or overthrow as well.
And none of our receivers could beat consistently beat single coverage deep, or consistently make contested catches.

Even in Monds (very good) 2020 season, most of his successful long passes were to dudes that were "schemed" open - very rarely just a WR straight-up burning someone.
Chapman made the iconic catch vs. FLA, but he just won the catch, he wasn't that open.
cevans_40
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Traveler said:

cevans_40 said:

Traveler said:



Ags have been one of the least explosive teams in CFB - offenses NEED deep threats/explosive plays, and our receivers/QB have just not delivered during that last two (three? four?) years in that department.
Can't keep counting on only the run game and tight-ends for the big chunk plays.

What's even more worrisome is if you look at how defenses play us (a ton of loaded boxes), we should have good success in throwing the deep ball. But that has not been the case. Mond would constantly overthrow balls and Zach would get happy feet or overthrow as well.
And none of our receivers could beat consistently beat single coverage deep, or consistently make contested catches.

Even in Monds (very good) 2020 season, most of his successful long passes were to dudes that were "schemed" open - very rarely just a WR straight-up burning someone.
Chapman made the iconic catch vs. FLA, but he just won the catch, he wasn't that open.

Yeah, open at this level of football is a half-step. Wide open is a full step. QB has to locate the ball and WR has to go get it. I feel confident that we have a combination of QBs and WRs on the roster that can make it happen.
Traveler
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cevans_40 said:

Traveler said:

cevans_40 said:

Traveler said:



Ags have been one of the least explosive teams in CFB - offenses NEED deep threats/explosive plays, and our receivers/QB have just not delivered during that last two (three? four?) years in that department.
Can't keep counting on only the run game and tight-ends for the big chunk plays.

What's even more worrisome is if you look at how defenses play us (a ton of loaded boxes), we should have good success in throwing the deep ball. But that has not been the case. Mond would constantly overthrow balls and Zach would get happy feet or overthrow as well.
And none of our receivers could beat consistently beat single coverage deep, or consistently make contested catches.

Even in Monds (very good) 2020 season, most of his successful long passes were to dudes that were "schemed" open - very rarely just a WR straight-up burning someone.
Chapman made the iconic catch vs. FLA, but he just won the catch, he wasn't that open.

Yeah, open at this level of football is a half-step. Wide open is a full step. QB has to locate the ball and WR has to go get it. I feel confident that we have a combination of QBs and WRs on the roster that can make it happen.
I hope you're right.

I'm beat down by year after year of hearing that we had the group of WR's in the country (heard this all the time during Sumlin's years), but after JFF and Evans and Co left it was usually only one or two guys (Kirk, Reynolds).

I link it all to Beatty leaving - Moorehead was less than worthless, and Craig hasn't impressed me yet.

Too many guys that never made that next step of were flat out busts - RSJ, Speedy, Ausbon, Demas, Rogers, Quartney ...


cevans_40
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Traveler said:

cevans_40 said:

Traveler said:

cevans_40 said:

Traveler said:



Ags have been one of the least explosive teams in CFB - offenses NEED deep threats/explosive plays, and our receivers/QB have just not delivered during that last two (three? four?) years in that department.
Can't keep counting on only the run game and tight-ends for the big chunk plays.

What's even more worrisome is if you look at how defenses play us (a ton of loaded boxes), we should have good success in throwing the deep ball. But that has not been the case. Mond would constantly overthrow balls and Zach would get happy feet or overthrow as well.
And none of our receivers could beat consistently beat single coverage deep, or consistently make contested catches.

Even in Monds (very good) 2020 season, most of his successful long passes were to dudes that were "schemed" open - very rarely just a WR straight-up burning someone.
Chapman made the iconic catch vs. FLA, but he just won the catch, he wasn't that open.

Yeah, open at this level of football is a half-step. Wide open is a full step. QB has to locate the ball and WR has to go get it. I feel confident that we have a combination of QBs and WRs on the roster that can make it happen.
I hope you're right.

I'm beat down by year after year of hearing that we had the group of WR's in the country (heard this all the time during Sumlin's years), but after JFF and Evans and Co left it was usually only one or two guys (Kirk, Reynolds).

I link it all to Beatty leaving - Moorehead was less than worthless, and Craig hasn't impressed me yet.

Too many guys that never made that next step of were flat out busts - RSJ, Speedy, Ausbon, Demas, Rogers, Quartney ...




Nothing you can do about guys like Speedy and Demas.
 
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