Edited Saturday afternoon
Friday update: With the Ole Miss egg bowl victory they have officially punched their ticket to the NY6 and eliminated A&M from contention there…still very much alive for the Fiesta bowl. Sugar Bowl route references have been deleted.
Saturday morning update: Friday was mostly chalk, teams below us won (Iowa, NC State, Utah) to keep very slim hopes alive but not in a fashion to suggest them leaping up the rankings
Saturday afternoon update: So far have not gotten any help to move up with Baylor and the ACC taking care of business. The path is still there for the Fiesta bowl but the path is becoming extremely narrow.
Everything below is predicated on Texas A&M beating LSU. A loss in that game and we would be in line for with a little luck the Citrus bowl vs. Iowa, but perhaps falling further to the Texas bowl/Outback bowl level. Citrus bowl would pick between 4 loss A&M or 4 loss Arkansas (assuming Kentucky loses to Louisville). If we win against LSU we are locked into no worse than Citrus bowl vs. Iowa.
Fiesta Bowl Route
The Fiesta bowl will get the 2 at large teams based on the final CFP rankings - to analyze this, let's take a look at a live projected rankings (using the latest committee taking into account action to date)
1. Georgia - CFP playoff - Orange Bowl
2. Alabama - CFP playoff - Cotton Bowl
3. Michigan - CFP playoff - Cotton Bowl
4. Cincinnati - CFP playoff - Orange Bowl
5. Notre Dame - At Large - contracts for 2021 lock them into the Peach Bowl
6. Oklahoma State - Projected Big 12 Champ
7. Ohio State - Highest Big Ten not in CFP- Rose Bowl
8. Baylor - At large - Fiesta Bowl
9. Ole Miss - Highest SEC not in CFP - Sugar Bowl
10. Oklahoma - (For now let's just assume they lose to OSU one of the next 2 weeks and drop down a bit) - out of a NY6 spot (probably need to win the big 12 to go to a NY6)
11. Oregon - Projected Pac 12 Champ - Rose Bowl
12. Michigan State - At Large - Fiesta Bowl
13. BYU - 1st runner up for an At large spot
14. Wisconsin - 2nd runner up for an at large spot
15. Texas A&M - 3rd runner up for an at large spot
16. Iowa - 4th runner up for an at large spot
17. Pitt - Projected ACC champ, Peach Bowl
18. Wake - plays in ACC championship for spot in the Peach Bowl.
19. Utah - plays Oregon for chance to take the Pac 12 rose bowl spot, if they lose they are out.
20. NC State - ACC's best threat for an at large (9-3, season over)
21. SDSU - Not a threat for an at large
22. UTSA - Not a threat for an at large
23. Clemson - Not a threat for an at large
24. Houston - If they win out (Beating Cincinnati they would likely leap frog SDSY and UTSA and be the highest ranked G5 champ stealing a bid to the Fiesta Bowl. Cincy would get an at large spot and this would be very bad news for anyone else hoping for an at large spot.
25. Arkansas - Not a threat for an at large
As you can see we are currently 3rd in line for a spot, so we need some teams ahead of us to lose for us to get up into at least the top 12. Outlined below is the most likely path to get there
1. Beat LSU (nothing else matters if this doesn't happen)
2. Wisconsin loses the Big 10 championship game (likely) (up to #14)
3. Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and then beats Baylor (And A&M passes both OU and Baylor in the final rankings) it would be even more helpful if Baylor lost to tech and then OSU beat Oklahoma twice. That would guarantee us moving up 2 spots. (#12)
4. Cincinnati must beat Houston
5. Oklahoma State does not make the CFP. If they do we need both of the 2 below outcomes as OSU making the CFP guarantees a 2nd big 12 team into NY6 regardless of rankings.
Would still need to go up 1 more spot- either by:
1. Michigan State loses to Penn State. This seems very plausible and is a great chance to move up a spot OR
2. BYU losing to USC OR looking bad enough that A&M leapfrogs them in the final ranking.
If the right combination of these things happen, A&M will move up enough spots to get into their 2nd consecutive NY6 bowl game, a major accomplishment with a chance to add a signature win.
Viewing Guide/ Rooting Interest to make it happen, # of stars indicates the relative importance of the game. Root for the team in Bold
Saturday 11/27
*1:00 UTSA @ North Texas ESPN+ - Miniscule chance of UTSA being anywhere near the at large discussion. But if your bored and nothing else on root for their dream season to end in Denton. (UTSA -10.5)
***2:30 Penn State @ Michigan State. ABC - This one is absolutely a huge domino that we need to fall to get into the at large mix. (Penn State -1)
*2:30 Alabama @ Auburn - CBS. A loss would be likely fatal for the chance to get 2 SEC teams into the CFP, but if they do lose you can safely assume they likely lose in Atlanta next week vs UGA too and there is a decent chance a 3 loss A&M is ahead of a 3 loss Bama. The SEC getting 2 into the CFP is not as crucial now that ole Miss lost. The benefit to doing so is only to keep the big 12 out and possibly to limit them to 1 NY6 bid. (Bama -19.5)
**2:30 Oregon State @ Oregon - ESPN - this one wouldn't help nearly as much as you might think. The PAC 12 champ is guaranteed to go to the rose bowl and take a NY6 spot and it is very unlikely a 2nd team would be in play for an at large. One possible scenario would be Oregon looks good here, then loses a very close game to Utah in the Pac 12 championship. Does a 3 loss A&M pass a 3 loss Oregon? Almost certainly so but it's not a complete given. (Oregon -7)
*3:00 Wisconsin @ Minnesota FOX. No matter what we need the Big 10 east Champ (OSU/Michigan) to beat the Big 10 West. So watching Wisconsin lose next week will be a much bigger need than this one (Wisconsin -7)
*******6:00 Texas A&M @ LSU. ESPN.
None of this means diddly squat if we can't take care of business and end the corn dogs season. (Ags -6.5)
**6:30 Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State Ideally OSU wins BIG, enough to knock Oklahoma out of a NY6 spot with them sitting at home in conference championship weekend (assuming Baylor beats Tech) (OSU -4.0)
*6:30 Pitt @ Syracuse ACCN - feels like a broken record but it's really hard( essentially impossible) to see the ACC getting an at large spot even with 4 teams ranked 17-23. A Pitt loss damages that hope even further. (Pitt -13)
6:30 Clemson @ South Carolina SECN See note for Pitt, Wake and NC State. This one does have the added benefit of making one of our few road victories look even more impressive than it was (Clemson -11.5)
**7:00 Notre Dame @ Stanford FOX - this one is a double whammy. A loss by ND knocks them out of the CFP picture (and increases the likliehood of multiple SEC teams in, and also a loss POSSIBLY would knock them all the way down to below A&M. It would only be their 2nd loss but they really lack for top quality wins this year and I could see them falling out of the top 12 by picking ups a really bad loss here (ND -19.5)
***9:30 BYU @ USC ESPN .Another big one. A great chance to move up 1 crucial spot to end the regular season. If A&M looks really impressive and BYU has a struggle win here (nobody with a pulse has struggled with USC all year) I could definitely see the committee having every reason to leap frog A&M over BYU whose resume stands up less and less to scrutiny when you consider just how bad the pac 12 south is where all of their big wins came from (how are they any better than SDSU??)
(BYU -7)
Friday 12/3
**7:00 Pac 12 Championship - ABC.
assuming Utah and Oregon take care of business in week 13 that's the matchup we get here. The very slim hopes of the Pac 12 to get 2 into the NY6 probably rest on Oregon looking really good but losing a very close game to Utah. Still, hard to imagine they stay ahead of A&M if they do. The smart thing to root for here is just for Oregon to come in and avenge their loss and take the automatic bid, leaving the Pac 12 with no other viable contenders
Saturday 12/4
***11:00 Big 12 Championship - Nothing says big time football like an AM kickoff for a championship game alongside the MAC game. Who we need to win in this contest will be determined by who wins the OU/OSU game.
***3:00 SEC Championship Alabama vs. Georgia - UGA is almost certainly in even with a loss here so a Bama win likely means 2 SEC teams in the CFP and the highest ranked SEC team outside of the CFP might be us.
***3: 00 AAC Championship Cincinnativs. Houston. ABC. This one may be counter intuitive but we need the higher ranked team here. The idea is that Cincy has already locked up a NY6 bid at this point and we would rather them take the bid for the G5 rather than an at large spot.
*7:00 ACC Championship ABC. Will revisit next week but highly unlikely either team will have a shot at an at large.
***7:00 Big Ten Championship. Fox. Need the east (Michigan/OSU) to beat the West (Wisconsin/Iowa) or there will be one fewer at large for the rest of us.
Friday update: With the Ole Miss egg bowl victory they have officially punched their ticket to the NY6 and eliminated A&M from contention there…still very much alive for the Fiesta bowl. Sugar Bowl route references have been deleted.
Saturday morning update: Friday was mostly chalk, teams below us won (Iowa, NC State, Utah) to keep very slim hopes alive but not in a fashion to suggest them leaping up the rankings
Saturday afternoon update: So far have not gotten any help to move up with Baylor and the ACC taking care of business. The path is still there for the Fiesta bowl but the path is becoming extremely narrow.
Everything below is predicated on Texas A&M beating LSU. A loss in that game and we would be in line for with a little luck the Citrus bowl vs. Iowa, but perhaps falling further to the Texas bowl/Outback bowl level. Citrus bowl would pick between 4 loss A&M or 4 loss Arkansas (assuming Kentucky loses to Louisville). If we win against LSU we are locked into no worse than Citrus bowl vs. Iowa.
Fiesta Bowl Route
The Fiesta bowl will get the 2 at large teams based on the final CFP rankings - to analyze this, let's take a look at a live projected rankings (using the latest committee taking into account action to date)
1. Georgia - CFP playoff - Orange Bowl
2. Alabama - CFP playoff - Cotton Bowl
3. Michigan - CFP playoff - Cotton Bowl
4. Cincinnati - CFP playoff - Orange Bowl
5. Notre Dame - At Large - contracts for 2021 lock them into the Peach Bowl
6. Oklahoma State - Projected Big 12 Champ
7. Ohio State - Highest Big Ten not in CFP- Rose Bowl
8. Baylor - At large - Fiesta Bowl
9. Ole Miss - Highest SEC not in CFP - Sugar Bowl
10. Oklahoma - (For now let's just assume they lose to OSU one of the next 2 weeks and drop down a bit) - out of a NY6 spot (probably need to win the big 12 to go to a NY6)
11. Oregon - Projected Pac 12 Champ - Rose Bowl
12. Michigan State - At Large - Fiesta Bowl
13. BYU - 1st runner up for an At large spot
14. Wisconsin - 2nd runner up for an at large spot
15. Texas A&M - 3rd runner up for an at large spot
16. Iowa - 4th runner up for an at large spot
17. Pitt - Projected ACC champ, Peach Bowl
18. Wake - plays in ACC championship for spot in the Peach Bowl.
19. Utah - plays Oregon for chance to take the Pac 12 rose bowl spot, if they lose they are out.
20. NC State - ACC's best threat for an at large (9-3, season over)
21. SDSU - Not a threat for an at large
22. UTSA - Not a threat for an at large
23. Clemson - Not a threat for an at large
24. Houston - If they win out (Beating Cincinnati they would likely leap frog SDSY and UTSA and be the highest ranked G5 champ stealing a bid to the Fiesta Bowl. Cincy would get an at large spot and this would be very bad news for anyone else hoping for an at large spot.
25. Arkansas - Not a threat for an at large
As you can see we are currently 3rd in line for a spot, so we need some teams ahead of us to lose for us to get up into at least the top 12. Outlined below is the most likely path to get there
1. Beat LSU (nothing else matters if this doesn't happen)
2. Wisconsin loses the Big 10 championship game (likely) (up to #14)
3. Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and then beats Baylor (And A&M passes both OU and Baylor in the final rankings) it would be even more helpful if Baylor lost to tech and then OSU beat Oklahoma twice. That would guarantee us moving up 2 spots. (#12)
4. Cincinnati must beat Houston
5. Oklahoma State does not make the CFP. If they do we need both of the 2 below outcomes as OSU making the CFP guarantees a 2nd big 12 team into NY6 regardless of rankings.
Would still need to go up 1 more spot- either by:
1. Michigan State loses to Penn State. This seems very plausible and is a great chance to move up a spot OR
2. BYU losing to USC OR looking bad enough that A&M leapfrogs them in the final ranking.
If the right combination of these things happen, A&M will move up enough spots to get into their 2nd consecutive NY6 bowl game, a major accomplishment with a chance to add a signature win.
Viewing Guide/ Rooting Interest to make it happen, # of stars indicates the relative importance of the game. Root for the team in Bold
Saturday 11/27
*1:00 UTSA @ North Texas ESPN+ - Miniscule chance of UTSA being anywhere near the at large discussion. But if your bored and nothing else on root for their dream season to end in Denton. (UTSA -10.5)
***2:30 Penn State @ Michigan State. ABC - This one is absolutely a huge domino that we need to fall to get into the at large mix. (Penn State -1)
*2:30 Alabama @ Auburn - CBS. A loss would be likely fatal for the chance to get 2 SEC teams into the CFP, but if they do lose you can safely assume they likely lose in Atlanta next week vs UGA too and there is a decent chance a 3 loss A&M is ahead of a 3 loss Bama. The SEC getting 2 into the CFP is not as crucial now that ole Miss lost. The benefit to doing so is only to keep the big 12 out and possibly to limit them to 1 NY6 bid. (Bama -19.5)
**2:30 Oregon State @ Oregon - ESPN - this one wouldn't help nearly as much as you might think. The PAC 12 champ is guaranteed to go to the rose bowl and take a NY6 spot and it is very unlikely a 2nd team would be in play for an at large. One possible scenario would be Oregon looks good here, then loses a very close game to Utah in the Pac 12 championship. Does a 3 loss A&M pass a 3 loss Oregon? Almost certainly so but it's not a complete given. (Oregon -7)
*3:00 Wisconsin @ Minnesota FOX. No matter what we need the Big 10 east Champ (OSU/Michigan) to beat the Big 10 West. So watching Wisconsin lose next week will be a much bigger need than this one (Wisconsin -7)
*******6:00 Texas A&M @ LSU. ESPN.
None of this means diddly squat if we can't take care of business and end the corn dogs season. (Ags -6.5)
**6:30 Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State Ideally OSU wins BIG, enough to knock Oklahoma out of a NY6 spot with them sitting at home in conference championship weekend (assuming Baylor beats Tech) (OSU -4.0)
*6:30 Pitt @ Syracuse ACCN - feels like a broken record but it's really hard( essentially impossible) to see the ACC getting an at large spot even with 4 teams ranked 17-23. A Pitt loss damages that hope even further. (Pitt -13)
6:30 Clemson @ South Carolina SECN See note for Pitt, Wake and NC State. This one does have the added benefit of making one of our few road victories look even more impressive than it was (Clemson -11.5)
**7:00 Notre Dame @ Stanford FOX - this one is a double whammy. A loss by ND knocks them out of the CFP picture (and increases the likliehood of multiple SEC teams in, and also a loss POSSIBLY would knock them all the way down to below A&M. It would only be their 2nd loss but they really lack for top quality wins this year and I could see them falling out of the top 12 by picking ups a really bad loss here (ND -19.5)
***9:30 BYU @ USC ESPN .Another big one. A great chance to move up 1 crucial spot to end the regular season. If A&M looks really impressive and BYU has a struggle win here (nobody with a pulse has struggled with USC all year) I could definitely see the committee having every reason to leap frog A&M over BYU whose resume stands up less and less to scrutiny when you consider just how bad the pac 12 south is where all of their big wins came from (how are they any better than SDSU??)
(BYU -7)
Friday 12/3
**7:00 Pac 12 Championship - ABC.
assuming Utah and Oregon take care of business in week 13 that's the matchup we get here. The very slim hopes of the Pac 12 to get 2 into the NY6 probably rest on Oregon looking really good but losing a very close game to Utah. Still, hard to imagine they stay ahead of A&M if they do. The smart thing to root for here is just for Oregon to come in and avenge their loss and take the automatic bid, leaving the Pac 12 with no other viable contenders
Saturday 12/4
***11:00 Big 12 Championship - Nothing says big time football like an AM kickoff for a championship game alongside the MAC game. Who we need to win in this contest will be determined by who wins the OU/OSU game.
***3:00 SEC Championship Alabama vs. Georgia - UGA is almost certainly in even with a loss here so a Bama win likely means 2 SEC teams in the CFP and the highest ranked SEC team outside of the CFP might be us.
***3: 00 AAC Championship Cincinnativs. Houston. ABC. This one may be counter intuitive but we need the higher ranked team here. The idea is that Cincy has already locked up a NY6 bid at this point and we would rather them take the bid for the G5 rather than an at large spot.
*7:00 ACC Championship ABC. Will revisit next week but highly unlikely either team will have a shot at an at large.
***7:00 Big Ten Championship. Fox. Need the east (Michigan/OSU) to beat the West (Wisconsin/Iowa) or there will be one fewer at large for the rest of us.
