I skipped to the bottom so this is probably said already, so I'll just back up whoever said it first.

The only scenario where winning out gets us into the playoffs is if that includes an SEC Championship win against Georgia.

A 2 loss team that beat #1 twice in one season and who would then be on a 7 game winning streak sounds like a playoff team.

Otherwise, too far to climb.

Iraq2xVeteran said:

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For us to make the College Football Playoffs, several things will need to happen.
1. We would need to win out.
2. We will need Mississippi State to lose one more game. Their remaining 4 SEC games against Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn, and Ole Miss are all tough, and they will be lucky to win 2 of them.
3. Also, we will need Alabama to lose one more game, The most likely team to hand Alabama a second loss is Auburn in the Iron Bowl. If we had beaten Mississippi State at Kyle Field, we would just need to win out to win the SEC West.
4. Even if we win the SEC West, we would have to beat 12-0 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
5. Even if we miraculously become 11-2 SEC Champions, we would need 2 of the 4 other Power 5 conference champions to lose 2 games each and Cincinnati to lose 1 game.

Realistically, I am predicting a 9-3 regular season with a loss at Ole Miss. Our toughest remaining game is the road game at Ole Miss on 11/13, and that is the only game we are not favored to win. We will probably need to score a ton of points and clamp down in the red zone to beat Ole Miss. I think we can beat Ole Miss, but I won't be surprised if we lose to them. That game will probably determine 2nd place in the SEC West and even a NY6 bowl appearance.

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Another reasonable Aggie,

1. I agree
2. I agree
3. I agree, but very unlikely. We lost too many games to be in the CFP hunt.
4. I agree, assuming if Georgia is undefeated; otherwise the SEC title game is for the Sugar Bowl berth
5. Which is why if this was to happen, we would most likely go to the Sugar Bowl due to the other P5 conference champions that are either undefeated/one loss AND Cincinnati being undefeated.

If we win out, we will be lucky to be considered for a NY6 bowl, most likely we will go Citrus or Outback...

I was hearing you until your last phrase ....

TAM85 said:

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I was hearing you until your last phrase ....

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Which phrase?

BJC said:

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Iraq2xVeteran said:

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For us to make the College Football Playoffs, several things will need to happen.
1. We would need to win out.
2. We will need Mississippi State to lose one more game. Their remaining 4 SEC games against Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn, and Ole Miss are all tough, and they will be lucky to win 2 of them.
3. Also, we will need Alabama to lose one more game, The most likely team to hand Alabama a second loss is Auburn in the Iron Bowl. If we had beaten Mississippi State at Kyle Field, we would just need to win out to win the SEC West.
4. Even if we win the SEC West, we would have to beat 12-0 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
5. Even if we miraculously become 11-2 SEC Champions, we would need 2 of the 4 other Power 5 conference champions to lose 2 games each and Cincinnati to lose 1 game.

Realistically, I am predicting a 9-3 regular season with a loss at Ole Miss. Our toughest remaining game is the road game at Ole Miss on 11/13, and that is the only game we are not favored to win. We will probably need to score a ton of points and clamp down in the red zone to beat Ole Miss. I think we can beat Ole Miss, but I won't be surprised if we lose to them. That game will probably determine 2nd place in the SEC West and even a NY6 bowl appearance.

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Another reasonable Aggie,

1. I agree
2. I agree
3. I agree, but very unlikely. We lost too many games to be in the CFP hunt.
4. I agree, assuming if Georgia is undefeated; otherwise the SEC title game is for the Sugar Bowl berth
5. Which is why if this was to happen, we would most likely go to the Sugar Bowl due to the other P5 conference champions that are either undefeated/one loss AND Cincinnati being undefeated.

If we win out, we will be lucky to be considered for a NY6 bowl, most likely we will go Citrus or Outback...

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How do you define "most likely"?
It is currently unlikely that Oklahoma wins out.
It is currently unlikely that Oregon wins out.
It is currently unlikely that Wake Forrest wins out.
We don't need 2 losses on all the others. An 11-2 SEC champ fresh off beating #1 Georgia gets in over 1 loss ACC champ or 1 loss PAC champ.

The most unlikely thing of all is getting to step 5. If we get to step 5 (which is unlikely) then any reasonable analytics out there has us as extremely likely to get in. If you don't want to do the work then just go to 538, select Bama losing a game A&M winning out. They are smarter than you.

AggieDub04 said:

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BJC said:

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Iraq2xVeteran said:

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For us to make the College Football Playoffs, several things will need to happen.
1. We would need to win out.
2. We will need Mississippi State to lose one more game. Their remaining 4 SEC games against Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn, and Ole Miss are all tough, and they will be lucky to win 2 of them.
3. Also, we will need Alabama to lose one more game, The most likely team to hand Alabama a second loss is Auburn in the Iron Bowl. If we had beaten Mississippi State at Kyle Field, we would just need to win out to win the SEC West.
4. Even if we win the SEC West, we would have to beat 12-0 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
5. Even if we miraculously become 11-2 SEC Champions, we would need 2 of the 4 other Power 5 conference champions to lose 2 games each and Cincinnati to lose 1 game.

Realistically, I am predicting a 9-3 regular season with a loss at Ole Miss. Our toughest remaining game is the road game at Ole Miss on 11/13, and that is the only game we are not favored to win. We will probably need to score a ton of points and clamp down in the red zone to beat Ole Miss. I think we can beat Ole Miss, but I won't be surprised if we lose to them. That game will probably determine 2nd place in the SEC West and even a NY6 bowl appearance.

---

Another reasonable Aggie,

1. I agree
2. I agree
3. I agree, but very unlikely. We lost too many games to be in the CFP hunt.
4. I agree, assuming if Georgia is undefeated; otherwise the SEC title game is for the Sugar Bowl berth
5. Which is why if this was to happen, we would most likely go to the Sugar Bowl due to the other P5 conference champions that are either undefeated/one loss AND Cincinnati being undefeated.

If we win out, we will be lucky to be considered for a NY6 bowl, most likely we will go Citrus or Outback...

---

How do you define "most likely"?
It is currently unlikely that Oklahoma wins out.
It is currently unlikely that Oregon wins out.
It is currently unlikely that Wake Forrest wins out.
We don't need 2 losses on all the others. An 11-2 SEC champ fresh off beating #1 Georgia gets in over 1 loss ACC champ or 1 loss PAC champ.

The most unlikely thing of all is getting to step 5. If we get to step 5 (which is unlikely) then any reasonable analytics out there has us as extremely likely to get in. If you don't want to do the work then just go to 538, select Bama losing a game A&M winning out. They are smarter than you.

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Make no mistake, I would very much like for us to be in the CFP; unfortunately, we do not have much to stand on due to our two inexplicable losses to Arkansas (ranked but lower than us) and Mississippi State (unranked) with the same team that beat Alabama and (hopefully) Georgia. Although we do need to win out to make any of this possible, I would be more at ease if we were to have only one loss, which would make our claim to a CFP bid more solid.

We need start facing the facts here; the CFP committee will definitely hold our two losses against us given that there will be undefeated/one-loss conference champion teams (to similarly-ranked or better-ranked opponents) that have better resumes than us therefore ranked ahead of us. Again, if we were to miraculously win the SEC title, if the above holds true, most likely we will be going to the Sugar Bowl (which will still be a successful season).

BJC said:

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AggieDub04 said:

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BJC said:

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Iraq2xVeteran said:

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For us to make the College Football Playoffs, several things will need to happen.
1. We would need to win out.
2. We will need Mississippi State to lose one more game. Their remaining 4 SEC games against Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn, and Ole Miss are all tough, and they will be lucky to win 2 of them.
3. Also, we will need Alabama to lose one more game, The most likely team to hand Alabama a second loss is Auburn in the Iron Bowl. If we had beaten Mississippi State at Kyle Field, we would just need to win out to win the SEC West.
4. Even if we win the SEC West, we would have to beat 12-0 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
5. Even if we miraculously become 11-2 SEC Champions, we would need 2 of the 4 other Power 5 conference champions to lose 2 games each and Cincinnati to lose 1 game.

Realistically, I am predicting a 9-3 regular season with a loss at Ole Miss. Our toughest remaining game is the road game at Ole Miss on 11/13, and that is the only game we are not favored to win. We will probably need to score a ton of points and clamp down in the red zone to beat Ole Miss. I think we can beat Ole Miss, but I won't be surprised if we lose to them. That game will probably determine 2nd place in the SEC West and even a NY6 bowl appearance.

---

Another reasonable Aggie,

1. I agree
2. I agree
3. I agree, but very unlikely. We lost too many games to be in the CFP hunt.
4. I agree, assuming if Georgia is undefeated; otherwise the SEC title game is for the Sugar Bowl berth
5. Which is why if this was to happen, we would most likely go to the Sugar Bowl due to the other P5 conference champions that are either undefeated/one loss AND Cincinnati being undefeated.

If we win out, we will be lucky to be considered for a NY6 bowl, most likely we will go Citrus or Outback...

---

How do you define "most likely"?
It is currently unlikely that Oklahoma wins out.
It is currently unlikely that Oregon wins out.
It is currently unlikely that Wake Forrest wins out.
We don't need 2 losses on all the others. An 11-2 SEC champ fresh off beating #1 Georgia gets in over 1 loss ACC champ or 1 loss PAC champ.

The most unlikely thing of all is getting to step 5. If we get to step 5 (which is unlikely) then any reasonable analytics out there has us as extremely likely to get in. If you don't want to do the work then just go to 538, select Bama losing a game A&M winning out. They are smarter than you.

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Make no mistake, I would very much like for us to be in the CFP; unfortunately, we do not have much to stand on due to our two inexplicable losses to Arkansas (ranked but lower than us) and Mississippi State (unranked) with the same team that beat Alabama and (hopefully) Georgia. Although we do need to win out to make any of this possible, I would be more at ease if we were to have only one loss, which would make our claim to a CFP bid more solid.

We need start facing the facts here; the CFP committee will definitely hold our two losses against us given that there will be undefeated/one-loss conference champion teams (to similarly-ranked or better-ranked opponents) that have better resumes than us therefore ranked ahead of us. Again, if we were to miraculously win the SEC title, if the above holds true, most likely we will be going to the Sugar Bowl (which will still be a successful season).

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You think the CFP will do certain things. You have no facts to face that are condemning. I have asked you to show your math when talking about what is likely and you have dodged that.

Please post how you come up with a greater than 50% chance that an 11-2 SEC champ A&M is left out of the CFP or stop saying it is most likely. There is no reasonable way that it is most likely and every analytics site out there agrees that it is not.

Please refute any calculations that show it is extremely likely that such a team would reach the CFP.

Otherwise stop spouting off on what is likely and factual vs what you think.

Quote:

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Please post how you come up with a greater than 50% chance that an 11-2 SEC champ A&M is left out of the CFP or stop saying it is most likely. There is no reasonable way that it is most likely and every analytics site out there agrees that it is not.

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There are no hard formulas with the committee.

ETA: There is just past precedent.

Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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Quote:

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Please post how you come up with a greater than 50% chance that an 11-2 SEC champ A&M is left out of the CFP or stop saying it is most likely. There is no reasonable way that it is most likely and every analytics site out there agrees that it is not.

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There are no hard formulas with the committee.

ETA: There is just past precedent.

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Then they should stop using the phrases likely and unlikely as those are incorrect terms to use.

Precedent is taken into consideration in the analysis that is done. That's the entire point of it. To weight what is likely based on past performance. Anything else is opinion.

Literally every year the committee does something they've not done before (last year a conference championship loser got in, that had never happened). it's never happened is insufficient to say it won't or even that it is unlikely given the fact something that has never happened actually happens every single year.

All these arguments are absurd.

People who do probabilities for a living, with the most accurate prediction models, give us a 98% chance to make the playoffs if we don't lose again and win the SEC (which obviously includes Bama losing again).

Anyone who says things like we have a less than 50% chance of being in the playoff if we are 11-2 SEC champs has zero clue what they are talking about. None.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-college-football-predictions/

I've never used that tool before. How did you arrive at the 98%? I am unable to forecast anything besides winning out and current week results when I look at it.

No two loss team deserves to be in a 4 team playoff. Not even this team. A 10 team playoff….perhaps.
If we win out and make the final four teams, the playoff system is crap. Losing 2 games has consequences.

A team who would have wins against two number ones during the season and played in the best conf in America would absolutely be in.

If we win out and win the SEC, I won't care if we make the playoffs or not. We would clearly be the best team in the country at that point, recruiting will be epic, and the playoffs without us would be a joke. Just win baby!!!