If we win out convincingly, do we make the playoffs?

What must we hope happens that is not in our control?

Bingo!

Will we be competing with an 11-1 or 10-2 Kentucky for a NY6 game? Or can we both make one?

There are 16 teams with playoff hopes. And we ain't one of em.

Doubt we can beat Auburn and OM.

jphelmet said:

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We win out and bama loses a game we have a 98% to make the playoff.

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That if we beat Georgia in the SEC championship game, then we do have a shot with two losses. If not, it does not matter.

I think if we win out and Bama loses to Georgia in the SEC ship, we have a shot at getting in. 2 SEC (Georgia and us), 1 Big 10, and either 1 Big 12 or Cincy.

We need Cincy to lose or a team like Iowa St to win the Big 12.

The "cleanest" path is to win out with a Bama loss, then win the game in Atlanta.

jphelmet said:

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AggieDub14 said:

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There are 16 teams with playoff hopes. And we ain't one of em.

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-college-football-predictions/

If we win out we have a legit shot. If bama loses and we win sec, we are pretty close to a lock.

I am not saying we will, I think we drop one or two more, Calzada just not good enough.

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To expand on that for those that haven't played around much with that website… if we win out it gives us a 43% chance to make the playoffs. Add in a Bama loss and that goes to 91%. FYI if you add in a Miss state win over Kentucky that goes up to 96% as it would knock the wildcats out of the discussion. (Only 1 loss and in Athens, if they win this weekend they have a great chance to run the table too).

If we win out, Bama still goes to the SECCG.

If Bama wins that, I think Bama and UGA both get in (if UGA wins out). If that is the case then whoever has the better record between us and Kentucky (or CFP ranking in a tie record) goes to the sugar.

If Bama or UGA gets knocked out of the CFP top 4, that team gets the sugar bowl

We don't make the sugar bowl, but are 10-2, we will be ranked somehwere in the 6-10 range and we will get to enjoy a Fiesta or Peach bowl

waltonloads11 said:

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I think if we win out and Bama loses to Georgia in the SEC ship, we have a shot at getting in. 2 SEC (Georgia and us), 1 Big 10, and either 1 Big 12 or Cincy.

We need Cincy to lose or a team like Iowa St to win the Big 12.

The "cleanest" path is to win out with a Bama loss, then win the game in Atlanta.

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Thoughts on this idea? Say Cincy gets eliminated by SMU, the pac12 doesn't get one in, the ACC doesn't get one in, but OU and a Big10 school emerge as clear cut conference bests. Then Bama beats UGA by 21 in the SECCG. So we're sitting around looking at teams for the 4th spot like this...

• 12-1 UGA who just got beat badly by Bama
• 11-1 Michigan who just got beat by Ohio State
• 10-2 Texas A&M who is on a 7ish? game win streak since their new QB settled in (the CFP committee accounts for injury) and has shown the ability to beat Bama

Teams currently ahead of us like Cincy, Oregon, Mich St, Iowa, Ole Miss, ND, Kentucky, and Wake Forest can all easily take losses, especially in conference championship games.


Who would get in among those teams?

Playoffs ? No. New year 6 bowl if we win out. YES

Alpha Texan said:

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waltonloads11 said:

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I think if we win out and Bama loses to Georgia in the SEC ship, we have a shot at getting in. 2 SEC (Georgia and us), 1 Big 10, and either 1 Big 12 or Cincy.

We need Cincy to lose or a team like Iowa St to win the Big 12.

The "cleanest" path is to win out with a Bama loss, then win the game in Atlanta.

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Thoughts on this idea? Say Cincy gets eliminated by SMU, the pac12 doesn't get one in, the ACC doesn't get one in, but OU and a Big10 school emerge as clear cut conference bests. Then Bama beats UGA by 21 in the SECCG. So we're sitting around looking at teams for the 4th spot like this...

• 12-1 UGA who just got beat badly by Bama
• 11-1 Michigan who just got beat by Ohio State
• 10-2 Texas A&M who is on a 7ish? game win streak since their new QB settled in (the CFP committee accounts for injury) and has shown the ability to beat Bama

Teams currently ahead of us like Cincy, Oregon, Mich St, Iowa, Ole Miss, ND, Kentucky, and Wake Forest can all easily take losses, especially in conference championship games.


Who would get in among those teams?

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Georgia or Mich. Just because ND losing to Clemson last year set the precedent. Both did flame out quickly, so it may help us this year if a similar situation comes up.

But let's keep talking. I think Mich winning out, is the clear cut best of the Big 10, and give Ohio St their second loss will help. I also think if Georgia and Bama is playing in Atlanta, we would root for Georgia to win and give Bama their second loss.

beerad12man said:

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Yes if we won out, AND bama lost, then winning out means 11-2 sec champions. We would be in

Two huge ifs that probably won't happen though.

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There's more if's than that. A lot of people in this thread need to take off the maroon galsses and realize that the "we're in the SEC" narrative isn't going to always save us. It didn't last year. The committee already demonstrated it was willing to take 2x 1-loss teams from the ACC instead of having a second SEC team with one loss.

If Iowa wins out, and beats an undefeated Michigan or MSU in the B1G CCG, the B1G would likely get 2 teams in. You could even have 1 loss tOSU win out, beat Iowa, then have 1 loss Michigan/MSU sneak in at #4 like Bama did in 2017.

If WF wins out and is an undefeated ACC champ, they may get in as well.

If OU wins out, they're in.

And as much as people on here hate to admit it, if Cincinnati wins out, they're. CFP ratings have been on the decline now because people have had fatigue with "the usual suspects." An undefeated G5 Cinderella story would be the ratings boost they desperately need.

Not to mention Oregon and ND could always win out and be in the mix.

Long story short, there's a lot of football that gets played outside the SEC that determines who gets in. While we would have probably the 2 of the best wins in the nation, we would still have 2 bad losses to teams that are unranked along with inconsistent QB play that the committee will consider. So if you think it's a done deal that the committee is going to take a 2 loss SEC team over undefeated or one loss teams just because they're in the SEC, then you need to go back and look at last year.

So you are saying a 2 loss SEC Champion won't get in?

If our win out path goes through the CCG and Georgia, we likely make the CFP. Or it just is designed to be gamed so their favorite teams are in..

Say what?

waltonloads11 said:

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I think if we win out and Bama loses to Georgia in the SEC ship, we have a shot at getting in. 2 SEC (Georgia and us), 1 Big 10, and either 1 Big 12 or Cincy.

We need Cincy to lose or a team like Iowa St to win the Big 12.

The "cleanest" path is to win out with a Bama loss, then win the game in Atlanta.

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The only 2 loss SEC team with a chance to go to the playoffs would be an SEC Champ. No 2 loss team who isn't, not even Bama but especially not us, goes. Even in that situation Bama losses are better than ours.

Aggieair said:

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beerad12man said:

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Yes if we won out, AND bama lost, then winning out means 11-2 sec champions. We would be in

Two huge ifs that probably won't happen though.

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There's more if's than that. A lot of people in this thread need to take off the maroon galsses and realize that the "we're in the SEC" narrative isn't going to always save us. It didn't last year. The committee already demonstrated it was willing to take 2x 1-loss teams from the ACC instead of having a second SEC team with one loss.

If Iowa wins out, and beats an undefeated Michigan or MSU in the B1G CCG, the B1G would likely get 2 teams in. You could even have 1 loss tOSU win out, beat Iowa, then have 1 loss Michigan/MSU sneak in at #4 like Bama did in 2017.

If WF wins out and is an undefeated ACC champ, they may get in as well.

If OU wins out, they're in.

And as much as people on here hate to admit it, if Cincinnati wins out, they're. CFP ratings have been on the decline now because people have had fatigue with "the usual suspects." An undefeated G5 Cinderella story would be the ratings boost they desperately need.

Not to mention Oregon and ND could always win out and be in the mix.

Long story short, there's a lot of football that gets played outside the SEC that determines who gets in. While we would have probably the 2 of the best wins in the nation, we would still have 2 bad losses to teams that are unranked along with inconsistent QB play that the committee will consider. So if you think it's a done deal that the committee is going to take a 2 loss SEC team over undefeated or one loss teams just because they're in the SEC, then you need to go back and look at last year.

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Nah, there really isn't. The SEC champions aren't being left out this year. The rest of the country isn't strong enough.

I get that technically a couple of other things have to happen, but statistically they are almost a certainty. The rest will play out as necessary if we win out, and beat Georgia in the sec championship game to the tune of being the sec champs winning 7 in a row.

If we win the SECCG expect that we are in.

The winner of SEC will always get in. Even if it's with 2 losses.

If we win out Bama loses one more then we are the National Champs.

If Bama does not lose one more then we will finish the season ranked in the top 5.

The only path to the playoff for A & M is via winning the SEC Championship

aTmAg said:

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The winner of SEC will always get in. Even if it's with 2 losses.

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The winner of the SEC has never had 2 losses in the CFP era. Yes, 2007 LSU made the BCS game. But I'd argue their losses were better than ours ("undefeated in regulation"). And if you bring up 2007 LSU while ignoring the context of that year, you're missing my main point from above, which is the necessary external cannibalization.

In 2007 there was only 1 undefeated team in the top ten (#10 Hawaii). Then there was only two 1-loss teams in the top ten (#1 tOSU and #7(? IIRC) Kansas. Every other team in the top ten had 2 losses. That's why a 2 loss LSU got in.

So no, a 2 loss SEC championship team is not guaranteed an automatic berth to the playoffs independent of everything else.

Aggieair said:

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beerad12man said:

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Yes if we won out, AND bama lost, then winning out means 11-2 sec champions. We would be in

Two huge ifs that probably won't happen though.

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There's more if's than that. A lot of people in this thread need to take off the maroon glasses and realize that the "we're in the SEC" narrative isn't going to always save us. It didn't last year. The committee already demonstrated it was willing to take 2x 1-loss teams from the ACC instead of having a second SEC team with one loss.

If Iowa wins out, and beats an undefeated Michigan or MSU in the B1G CCG, the B1G would likely get 2 teams in. You could even have 1 loss tOSU win out, beat Iowa, then have 1 loss Michigan/MSU sneak in at #4 like Bama did in 2017.

If WF wins out and is an undefeated ACC champ, they may get in as well.

If OU wins out, they're in.

And as much as people on here hate to admit it, if Cincinnati wins out, they're in. CFP ratings have been on the decline now because people have had fatigue with "the usual suspects." An undefeated G5 Cinderella story would be the ratings boost they desperately need.

Not to mention Oregon and ND could always win out and be in the mix.

Long story short, there's a lot of football that gets played outside the SEC that determines who gets in. While we would have probably the 2 of the best wins in the nation, we would still have 2 bad losses to teams that are unranked along with inconsistent QB play that the committee will consider. So if you think it's a done deal that the committee is going to take a 2 loss SEC team over undefeated or one loss teams just because they're in the SEC, then you need to go back and look at last year.

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Finally someone said it! Many Ags here are hiding behind the SEC as if we are entitled children (leave that to the t-sips, we Aggies earn our keep); as I have said before, winning the SEC does not guarantee a playoff bid, only being ranked high enough in the final polls does.

If we were to luckily advance to the SEC title game and miraculously win the SEC (which I will have no complaints), with our two inexplicable losses to easily beatable teams along with the number of undefeated/one-loss teams ahead of us to fill all CFP spots, the best we can do at that point is to go the Sugar Bowl via a NY6 bowl auto-bid (this also goes for any two-loss P5 conference champions who have similar designs; chaos notwithstanding, a CFP bid is not going to happen so just enjoy the NY6 bowl auto-bid).

This year the B1G (Big Ten) is the strongest football conference...

Aggieair said:

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aTmAg said:

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The winner of SEC will always get in. Even if it's with 2 losses.

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The winner of the SEC has never had 2 losses in the CFP era. Yes, 2007 LSU made the BCS game. But I'd argue their losses were better than ours ("undefeated in regulation"). And if you bring up 2007 LSU while ignoring the context of that year, you're missing my main point from above, which is the necessary external cannibalization.

In 2007 there was only 1 undefeated team in the top ten (#10 Hawaii). Then there was only two 1-loss teams in the top ten (#1 tOSU and #7(? IIRC) Kansas. Every other team in the top ten had 2 losses. That's why a 2 loss LSU got in.

So no, a 2 loss SEC championship team is not guaranteed an automatic berth to the playoffs independent of everything else.

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2007 was a weird year due to widespread intra-conference cannibalization; many BCS AQ conference champions had two or more losses which enabled SEC champion LSU to be in the 2008 BCSCG due to their being ranked in the top two in the final BCS poll at season's end (if not, then they would have faced Hawaii [BCS non-AQ conference champion automatic qualifier] in the 2008 Sugar Bowl).

In the modern CFP the only way that a two-loss P5 conference champion gets a CFP bid is if almost widespread chaos is happening which is not the case in 2021; at best they will get an auto-bid to a NY6 bowl.