Quote:
So youd rather a potential stud recruit sign with a team we are going to play every season than with a team who we will never play because... tu is a far bigger nemesis?
I. The sips are the primary competition for most TX recruits
II. Decommits hurt recruiting momentum and could cause ripple
III. Auburn is a lesser threat
A. no single non-QB is likely to swing a game
B. Auburn would get somebody else almost as good
C. Auburn might cherry-pick, but will never run this state
IV. Auburn is part of the SEC, some indirect benefit for us
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TLDR Details:
Why the sips are the biggest threat:
The sips are the primary competitor for just about every local recruit. Anything that makes them look bad is probably worth another recruit for us at some point. Do you remember the decade when Butterteeth ran recruiting in this state? Something like that could happen again. The SEC brand gives us some hedge, but not a firewall.
Decommits just look bad and hurt recruiting momentum- we like the sips to get hurt
Why Auburn is such a lesser threat:
The liklihood of any single non-QB swinging the trajectory of a game is low. A high impact non-QB is worth 1-2 points in a betting line, unless his replacement is terrible (like going from Erik McCoy to Colton Prater). The liklihood of a 4* getting drafted is ~20-25%. But if they didnt get him, they only lose much in his replacement (The analysis changes on 5*s). Auburn should always recruit a decent baseline.
Auburn is unlikely to ever do more than cherry-pick a few TX recruits each year.
Yr: # TXHS recruits who signed with Auburn
20: 2
19: 0
18: 0
17: 0
16: 1
Last sub-point: he committed to sip over us, we were probably not going to get him. A&M is not for everybody. So where would he go?
Final point: we want them to be good 11/12 games a year, b/c they are part of the SEC brand.