Goose06, have not received our orders from smt25 for today. All okay with him/her or just super busy? Thanks.

KVK77TexAg said:

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Goose06, have not received our orders from smt25 for today. All okay with him/her or just super busy? Thanks.

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I'll check. Thanks for the heads up!

Subreddit squad orders executed! And not discouraged by the RNG to kick those conniving T-sips out of Texas!

It's better you get on www.collegefootballrisk.com now and fight as a rogue and we'll find you than to wait for orders. We fell under 700 players. We're now HALF the size of them yellow weasels. Now you tell me if the 12th man is gonna take that lying down. I sure as hell aint! We can do this old army! I BELIEVE! I AM TWO AND CHANGE LITERS OF HOMEMADE HOOCH INTO THIS EVENING AND IMMA DO WHAT IT TAKES TO WIN AYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY A! WHOOP!

ATTACK ORDERS: IF YOU ARE NOT IN A SUBREDDIT SQUAD OR DISCORD SQUAD, YOUR DEFAULT ORDER IS TO ATTACK TEXAS TECH! LET'S GET RID OF THOSE WEASELS IN TEXAS ONCE AND FOR ALL!

done!

Lol results. Game sure appears to be rigged against us. That or the non-TexAgs strategy is very different than the TexAgs one.

Schall 02 said:

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Lol results. Game sure appears to be rigged against us. That or the non-TexAgs strategy is very different than the TexAgs one.

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The last couple turns we have focused more to the north and less on Texas with some of our discord squads. But yeah, the "luck" has been heavily in Texas favor.

I made this post in reddit last night:

Quote:

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Texas last 6 days vs expected territories:

Day 46: +4
Day 45: +2
Day 44: +3.7
Day 43: +5.4
Day 42: +3.4
Day 41: +2

If standard deviation is 2 territories that's 6 straight days at least 1 standard deviation better than the mean and 3 of the 6 days would have something in the neighborhood of 2-10% odds of happening. To have this happen 6 days in a row the odds I back of the envelope estimated calculate out to 0.0000042875 which is roughly 1 in 250,000.

If mods want to provide the actual standard deviations we can do real math here, but that's about as good a guess as I can make with the information provided without building my own simulator.

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Doesn't appear to be a whole lot of R in the RNG.

My two cents: Long streaks of unfavorable results in a random system happen more often than would appear logical at first glance. Think about blackjack, a 50/50ish game when played perfectly. There is still about a 1/25 chance of 5 losses in a row.

That being said it sure would be interesting to see the full data behind all of the risk results to do an analysis!

This is not a 50/50 game though... just found a bunch of histograms a guy posted on reddit. I'll try to post them here. The odds of this 6 day stretch are actually like 4 times worse than I thought. Over 1 in a million.

Last 6 days horn odds - histograms courtesy of reddit user u/ItalianReptar (link to his last post here: https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeFootballRisk/comments/gfm96v/reddit_cfb_risk_stats_day_46_analysis/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf):








Eyeballing it:
Day 46: 8% chance of doing that well or better
Day 45: 26%
Day 44: 10%
Day 43: 2.3%
Day 42: 8%
Day 41: 22%

Odds of this happening 6 days in a row: 0.000000841984 or 1 in 1,187,671

First, anyone think my eyeball estimates are materially wrong?

Second, at incorrect that to determine the odds of this happening 6 days in a row you just multiply those %'s together. Then take the answer and do 1 divided by that to get to the 1 in 1.1MM odds I calculated? I am not a math genius so if I'm wrong please feel free to correct me...

That is quite an impressive string of luck.... I don't see anything wrong with your math. Looks like that 2.3% day is driving a lot of the absolute ridiculousness of this though...

If that day was switched to their "least lucky" day of 26% the odds go to 1 in 100K
If that day hit as a 50% day the odds go to 1 in 54K

In a sample size of 6 we would expect one extreme outcome to result in major changes to the odds, so nothing surprising here. Just putting the numbers out for comparison.

Go upvote my post to get it some attention.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeFootballRisk/comments/gfwwnj/1_in_1000000_so_you_are_telling_me_there_is_a/

ATTACK ORDERS DAY 47: IF YOU ARE NOT IN A SUBREDDIT SQUAD OR DISCORD SQUAD, YOUR DEFAULT ORDER IS TO ATTACK UTEP!

Reminds me of the "lucky" calls the whorns would get from the black and whites back when we played them. Another good example of why we should never play them again!

Got my second star!

Goose06 said:

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ATTACK ORDERS DAY 47: IF YOU ARE NOT IN A SUBREDDIT SQUAD OR DISCORD SQUAD, YOUR DEFAULT ORDER IS TO ATTACK UTEP!

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Get your move in before 10!

Alright boys, we are back into range of College Station today. So, today's orders if you aren't in a discord or reddit squad is to ATTACK TEXAS A&M! Take back our homeland!

BTHO A&M!

North Texas? Or SMU?

buda91 said:

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North Texas? Or SMU?

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My bad, posted the orders on the premium thread but not here this morning...

Today's orders if you aren't in a discord or reddit squad: ATTACK NORTH TEXAS!

For those who haven't checked the map, we cleared the horns all the way out of Texas for good. Now we just need to take one territory from Nebraska and all of our enemies will be eliminated from the state! Wisconsin has SMU but they are an ally so don't attack them.

Can't even eliminate them this week if we tried

Just one day left and just one territory in Texas that's not maroon. Days orders if you aren't in a discord or Reddit squad: ATTACK TCU!!!

Last day! Get your move in before 10!

Goose06 said:

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Last day! Get your move in before 10!

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Done. Any word on when the next season might be played? I'd like to get in at the beginning this time and join a group.

Nice work, Ags!

make sure you fill out the questionaire regarding Season 2 and a possible Season 3 on https://collegefootballrisk.com/

Strong finish ol' army

Wow. I can't believe that finish. We got somewhat of an assist from Nebraska who didn't put much effort into preventing maroon Texas, but we also were able to add numerous territories to the north and to the west. Sure wish we could have had this map to play from another few days!

Nice work ags. A couple of final wrap up items:

1. If you want to support the game makers: https://www.patreon.com/collegefootballdata

2. If you want to provide the game makers with feedback on the game: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf9nxfmc9nEYFEPp6cI0NRj-SZeXqpOvtyvhXSfIju1nZOBsw/viewform

Need to let the boards know that we came in second worth half the players of the winner. We need more players next time.

FrecklesDad said:

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Need to let the boards know that we came in second worth half the players of the winner. We need more players next time.

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We were definitely outmanned by the end of it. Any ideas for how we can recruit more players next season? Ideas for retention throughput the season?