Daily Rundown - Day 41:


Operation "Reclaim Texas" sees success, as tu is reduced to two territories in Texas and Michigan is completely kicked out of Texas. While we experienced some luck once again, UTEP, Austin, New Mexico, and New Mexico State proved to be bad luck territories. Alabama experienced some turmoil, as they are faced with that orange school in Austin and Michigan. With these last few turns, battles are becoming tighter and more important than ever. Operation "Reclaim Texas" is coming closer and closer to success, so how far can it go?

Let's start with a before and after map before diving into what happened yesterday...



(Day 41 pictured above)


(Day 42 pictured above)

Leaderboards:



THIS IS NOT A DRILL. We have seen a pretty significant drop in player count, dropping to a low of 710, putting us in 3rd place in both player count and star power. To put this in perspective, Georgia Tech, who has a student population of around 27,000, has 633 players. This cannot happen! We need every single Ag we can get for this last push to make Texas maroon again before the game ends, so keep recruiting hard and playing! Remember, Aggies do NOT lose online polls/games so let's make this happen.


Battle of the Day:

The "Battle of the Day" was fought in Austin with a total of 141 troops deployed between tu and Texas A&M. Unfortunately, the Aggies did not take Austin despite having a star power of 421 and a chance to win of 69%. Don't let up Ags!
RNG of the Day:


Well Ags, it was another night of not terrible, but not great RNG. We lose a total of 5 battles in which we were favored to win by >50%, including a 65% chance to win UTEP and a 69% chance to take Austin (shown above) from the sips, but we lose both. All in all, it's definitely been a lot worse in terms of RNG.

If you prefer memes over hotties, post a good meme or gif to confirm you've attacked Texas!

Done. Tuck fexas.

Goose06,
I made my move based on squad11's orders on the subreddit. Typing the words that went with the orders is just wrong on so many levels, though.

I don't have any memes that go along with the move I made, so I'll just add one of my favorite tu memes.

710 people won't cut it when Michigan has almost 1300

I started playing yesterday. Looks like I am in the Reddit now. Let's do this!

CCAg95 said:

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I started playing yesterday. Looks like I am in the Reddit now. Let's do this!

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Day 43 - May 4

Today's orders if you are not on a reddit or discrod squad is to ATTACK RICE! Post BTHO tu, a rice hottie (need proof they exist), a rice meme, or funny story about the mob to confirm you have executed this order.

Daily Rundown - Day 42:

Operation "Reclaim Texas" is hit hard, as tu gains more territories than the Aggies while taking over College Station. We experienced more bad luck today, as we didn't upset any territories and we lost Texas Tech, Texas A&M, TCU, Rice, and Oklahoma State when we were predicted to win. Alabama is now split up and surrounded, but we hope that Bama can still pull through. As we get closer and closer to the end, we are fighting harder and harder. Maybe Operation "Reclaim Texas" will come later than we think...


Let's start with a before and after map before diving into what happened yesterday...


(Day 42 pictured above)

(Day 43 pictured above)

Leaderboards:



We saw another slight increase in player count from 710 last night to 753 tonight. Georgia Tech has officially passed us in star power, putting us in 4th. We seem to be fluctuating anywhere from 700-800. We need every single Ag we can get for this last push to make Texas maroon again before the game ends, so keep recruiting hard and playing! Remember, Aggies do NOT lose online polls/games so let's make this happen.

Battle of the Day:

Today's "Battle of the Day" took place in Austin with a total of 175 troops sent between tu and Texas A&M. The Aggies finally took back Austin from tu with a star power of 466 and a chance to win of 63%. Keep fighting Ags!

RNG of the Day:



Our RNG of the day goes to the few territories that tu still owns within the state of Texas. We lost TCU with a 76% chance to win, Texas A&M with a 74% chance to win, and Rice with a 64% chance to win. Not a particularly good night in terms of RNG as we finish -2.4 in actual territories.

Meme of the Day:

How many days do we have to remove the orange stains on this state?

What should we attack today?

Goose06 said:

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Day 43 - May 4

Today's orders if you are not on a reddit or discrod squad is to ATTACK RICE! Post BTHO tu, a rice hottie (need proof they exist), a rice meme, or funny story about the mob to confirm you have executed this order.

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buda91 said:

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What should we attack today?

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RICE!

I just made my move per squad orders on the sub-reddit

BTHO tu!

Don't forget to get your move in tonight. And no one could find a rice hottie?

Oh Lord above how I hate them tea sips.

TxAg70_TxAg70 said:

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Oh Lord above how I hate them tea sips.

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RNG to the rescue for the longhorns

Don't know how they're doing it, and I can't prove it, but this wouldn't be the first (or the Last) time tu cheated to win something

Only way to fight back is to remember to play each day and hope for luck to bounce, I suppose. I know where I"ll be

I'm not usually one for conspiracies, but they were not favored for any of their 13 wins yesterday, including about half where they were heavy underdogs. Based on back of the napkin calculations, the combined probability of those 13 wins hitting was a little better than 1 in 200 million.

Lloyd Christmas wouldn't like those odds.

Who programmed this game? tu should have been knocked out by now. How are they winning these contests? Is there cheating going on?

ATTACK ORDERS: IF YOU ARE NOT IN A SUBREDDIT SQUAD OR DISCORD SQUAD, YOUR DEFAULT ORDER IS TO ATTACK TEXAS A&M! (WE WANT THE HOMELAND BACK)

POST A HOTTIE OR GIVE ME A GIGEM WHEN EXECUTED!

FrecklesDad said:

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Who programmed this game? tu should have been knocked out by now. How are they winning these contests? Is there cheating going on?

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Michigan (allies with the horns) is the group who runs the game. I certainly hope they aren't cheating, but yesterday's outcome for the horns was nearly statistically impossible.

Make sure to get your attacks in! I am not seeing enough Aggie Hotties!

Followed orders.

Is there any oversight? If not, safe to assume cheating.

I just made my move per Squad orders

I requested access to the /AggieCFBRisk subreddit.

TxAg9406 said:

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I requested access to the /AggieCFBRisk subreddit.

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You have been added

Schall 02 said:

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Followed orders.

Is there any oversight? If not, safe to assume cheating.

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I am not a technical expert on it so can't say for sure. All of the data is public except for the actual roll of the dice. You can prove up that at a macro level the outcomes appear to be well distributed and there does not appear to be any cheating. Now, do they pick strategic times to cheat in their own favor and strategic times to cheat against themselves to create a macro outcome that appears fair but that is in reality a sham? Who knows...

I think we have to assume its fair while continuing to push for more transparency.

ATTACK ORDERS: IF YOU ARE NOT IN A SUBREDDIT SQUAD OR DISCORD SQUAD, YOUR DEFAULT ORDER IS TO ATTACK TEXAS! (WE WANT TO PAINT AUSTIN MAROON)



Post a longhorn hottie, meme or "BTHO tu" to confirm you have executed the order

BTHO tu

I lean towards believing they aren't cheating. The amount of extra work to create this game is already huge, throw in a complicated cheating algorithm that works while the code is transparent sounds like more work than it's worth.
In the sips case, I tip my cap to good small team risk strategy mostly. They know they're outmanned so to stay alive they keep picking up weakly defended territories and mostly just moving around us.

Chrundle the Great said:

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I lean towards believing they aren't cheating. The amount of extra work to create this game is already huge, throw in a complicated cheating algorithm that works while the code is transparent sounds like more work than it's worth.
In the sips case, I tip my cap to good small team risk strategy mostly. They know they're outmanned so to stay alive they keep picking up weakly defended territories and mostly just moving around us.

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I'd be really curious to see the standard deviations for each turn that the sips have achieved. I mean the last 4 turns have been insane based on expected territories for the sips...

Day 44: 12 territories vs 8.3 expected
Day 43: 13 territories vs 7.6 expected
Day 42: 11 territories vs 7.6 expected
Day 41: 8 territories vs 8.3 expected

Days 42 to 44 all seem like 2+ standard deviations from the mean. Day 41 is at least 1 standard deviation from the mean I would think. What are the odds of this kind of consecutive day outperformance?