You really have that much time for a stupid analysis? I would rather have a wife!

83Aggie said:

---

There is merit to the idea, but teams like Wisconsin give another perspective, 2/15.

---

Teams like Wisconsin can use a different formula based on the conference and division they are in.

amercer said:

---

Yeah, most of the money we threw at Jimbo was to get us top 5 classes every year. If we don't improve quick, it's 75 million down the drain

---

Talk about jumping the gun

DallasAg 94 said:

---

Many times the Stars are bent towards older players, or players who develop early.

Patterson at TCU makes a living by recruiting 3Star player that he can keep 4 years.

Saban has made a living getting players who would be 2nd Round in the NFL draft to stay that extra year to become a 1st Rounder.

Clemson had a ton of guys stay.

#4 Clelin Ferrell (DE): RS Jr <- Projected 8th pick as a RS So
#13 Christian Wilkins (DT): SR <- Projected 2nd Rd as Jr.
#17 Dexter Lawrence (DT): Jr

You don't win National Championships by recruiting great HS players. You win Championships by having Future NFL players (1st and 2nd Rounders) decide to remain in college, instead of going into the draft.

Count me how many players stayed on those teams... and then look at their record. I would take the #8 pick in the NFL draft over some high school 5Star, everyday.

---

But you know what you usually are before you're the 8th pick in the draft? A 4 or 5 star high schooler.

What has Patterson ever won with those three stars? Not any championships. If you want to be good every 3-6 years when you hit on a few 3-stars, that strategy works. If you want to compete for championships, you have to load up on 4 and 5 stars. That has been proven over and over.

infinity ag said:

---

Mtn_Guide said:

---

OP, I think your formula is over-simplistic and kind of silly. You are way too over-concerned with stars.

There is a reason why 247 does a points average rather than just stars. There is almost no discernable difference between a player who ranks 0.89 and a player who ranks 0.90 but one could be a 3 star while another a 4 star. Just use a scoring average it's a much better reflection of where the player stands.

The idea that JFF is some kind of crazy one-off just isn't true. Two qbs off the top of my head who were 3 stars in high school are named Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield. Case Keenum was a 2 star and so was Mike Evans originally IIRC.

Then I have to ask how does your formula account for something like Texas who is highly ranked but also leads the nation in missed tackles?

---

Yes, it is simplistic, and that's the idea. I wanted something that could be intuitive and not a complex math formula with inputs that cannot be accurately measured.

---

I think the easiest way to look at it is simply looking at the average recruit rating. I think you will get a much more accurate view of how we stack up.

I think it was Dave Bartoo (or one of the stats guys, at least) who figured out that your four-year average has to be among the top 10 in the nation to win a national title. Clemson always manages to just hit that, but they're also amazing at developing talent.

The SB Nation guys took a look at this, in fact, with a form of composite, weighted-average four-year average system: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2019/2/7/18215228/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2019-class

Succinctly, Bama is 1, Georgia 2, LSU 3, Auburn 7, and Clemson 10, while A&M is (somewhat surprisingly), 8. The Georgia loss this last weekend notwithstanding, all of those teams should rough up everyone else they play but each other, where they're likely to split the results, more or less. A&M could be a legit top 10, 15 team if they weren't incomplete and getting beat on by other top 10 teams.

Losing five games this year would not be, by any stretch, an embarrassment considering how strong those programs are. On the bright side, the Aggies will probably crush whoever they play in the bowl game by like, 50 or 60 points.

Jimbo is a closer. Always has been.

HTH

technoviking said:

---

Jimbo is a closer. Always has been.

HTH

---

My issue with the 2020 class so far is that he's got a bunch of top prospects still on the hook, but has filled too many spots already with questionable commits.

And before someone responds with the company line telling us how good all of our questionable commits really are, they are underrated, nobody else sees the value, their offer list isn't any good because blah blah blah... Save your breath.

Yes, there are a few every year that fly under the radar, but the majority of the time, they are EXACTLY what they appear to be. And we've got a handful of players committed that we are going to have to choke down if we run out of spots and some top prospects have to be turned away.

1876er said:

---

amercer said:

---

Yeah, most of the money we threw at Jimbo was to get us top 5 classes every year. If we don't improve quick, it's 75 million down the drain

---

A&M will never get "top 5" classes every year no matter who the coach is.

---

Sadly I must agree.
For sure we will not out recruit bama and lsu on any regular basis.

4 said:

---

technoviking said:

---

Jimbo is a closer. Always has been.

HTH

---

My issue with the 2020 class so far is that he's got a bunch of top prospects still on the hook, but has filled too many spots already with questionable commits.

And before someone responds with the company line telling us how good all of our questionable commits really are, they are underrated, nobody else sees the value, their offer list isn't any good because blah blah blah... Save your breath.

Yes, there are a few every year that fly under the radar, but the majority of the time, they are EXACTLY what they appear to be. And we've got a handful of players committed that we are going to have to choke down if we run out of spots and some top prospects have to be turned away.

---

I don't think it's a matter of flying under the radar or not. I think a lot of it is more about how can you develop them.

At my age, I'll just settle for recruiting DB's good enough to not let the other team's receivers run free.

Meximan said:

---

I think it was Dave Bartoo (or one of the stats guys, at least) who figured out that your four-year average has to be among the top 10 in the nation to win a national title. Clemson always manages to just hit that, but they're also amazing at developing talent.

---

Good, because we are likely to be half ways there in Feb.

I understand the sentiment but to be fair I don't think there's a db unit in the country that can cover Alabama's receivers. Having said that , the gap between our db;s and Bama's receivers was of Grand Canyon proportions and it better get closed or wer'e in for more of the same in the future.

amercer said:

---

greg.w.h said:

---

amercer said:

---

Yeah, most of the money we threw at Jimbo was to get us top 5 classes every year. If we don't improve quick, it's 75 million down the drain

---

Are you sure this was the strategy? I see a ten-year, high-value, fully guaranteed hire as a long-term commitment so self-loathing fools can't do anything except self-loathe.

Present company excluded of course.

---

I see us eating a 45 million dollar buyout in a couple of years if things don't turn around quick, but then I'm not any good at predicting the future. So maybe this time is the time it works out for us.

---

Agreed!

The only thing that we seem to be remotely good at is shelling out "millions for mediocrity!" And guaranteed contracts!

And Jimbo is swilling it in!

infinity ag said:

---

Thanks to everyone for reading and I appreciate all the feedback.

Of course, I am no coach so most people here are better than me at football so I will just do the best proxy for recruit quality and take the stars and go from there. I think those give a good enough idea of how a rec would pan out, of course there are no guarantees. There may be an occasional 3* JFF who hits it big or a 5* flop. My position is that we need most of our players to be 4* players who I believe are the best combination of skill/talent, and hunger. Some 5*s may be primadonnas who are used to getting things easy from being super talented. They may not work hard enough. 3*s may have work ethic but not enough natural talent. I have noticed the top programs always have a lot of 5* and 4* and very few 3*. If we can get there, we ourselves in a very good position. Then of course it comes down to coaching and many other factors.

---

Eh, to be honest, I feel like the people disagreeing with you are overemphasizing the misleading nature of stars. In the end, I would argue that they still matter, just like you say. There is still a much higher chance that 4-5 star players will perform really well in college-level. It's why all the football gurus still say that you need have a top 10 recruiting class for years in order to compete for the championship.

The only thing I would disagree with you is that I feel like we're only a few players away from having a great class. Maybe it won't be as much of a home run as last year's, but if just a few more players sign with us, it would definitely still be a great top 10 class, which is all we need for now. I know that 2 months isn't exactly a short amount of time, but hey, you never know. A similar thing happened last year when great players started to commit to us towards the end. Not to mention, we still had a couple of decommits, but they didn't matter too much in the end.

Hopefully things go well.

Over the decades, I have seen a number of three stars be great college players. And a number of four and five star recruits never come close to their recruiting hype. Hard to make fine judgements based on recruiting ratings. The proof is in their college performance.

Jimbo was able to recruit well based on the hype around his hiring. I hope the team's performance this year does not dim that attraction too much for this year's recruiting.

We should be encouraged by the play of several freshmen (recruited by Jimbo) this year.

Easy to get hopes up with a new coach. But it does take a minimum of two to three years (depending upon where the program stood at the time of the coaching transition) for a new coach to build his talent base. This means patience, a rare commodity these days.

4 said:

---

technoviking said:

---

Jimbo is a closer. Always has been.

HTH

---

My issue with the 2020 class so far is that he's got a bunch of top prospects still on the hook, but has filled too many spots already with questionable commits.

And before someone responds with the company line telling us how good all of our questionable commits really are, they are underrated, nobody else sees the value, their offer list isn't any good because blah blah blah... Save your breath.

Yes, there are a few every year that fly under the radar, but the majority of the time, they are EXACTLY what they appear to be. And we've got a handful of players committed that we are going to have to choke down if we run out of spots and some top prospects have to be turned away.

---

I know you don't want to hear it, but Jimbo has sent just as high of a percentage of his 3 star recruits to the NFL as the national average for 4 stars.

I would tend to believe that when he offers a three star guy early on, it's likely because he does believe he's better than the ranking. We have maybe 2-3 guys I wish we didn't have committed, and at least one won't sign with us. But yes, we absolutely took a couple of three stars over a couple of fours because we liked them better. Raikes, Walker, Phillips at the very least.

I don't think we have that many questionable commits. Maybe 2-3 and again, 1 won't be signing with us.

TAMU74 said:

---

1876er said:

---

amercer said:

---

Yeah, most of the money we threw at Jimbo was to get us top 5 classes every year. If we don't improve quick, it's 75 million down the drain

---

A&M will never get "top 5" classes every year no matter who the coach is.

---

Sadly I must agree.
For sure we will not out recruit bama and lsu on any regular basis.

---

We can, but we have to win first. The way to do that is to get closer in recruiting than we have been. How do you do that? By closing out this class with Chris Morris, Zach Evans, Antonio Doyle, Devon Achane, Dontae Manning, etc.

No offense, but our fan base is filled with raging p*****. This was a clear rebuild by Jimbo and in year 1, he already outrecruited LSU. They are getting the better of us in this cycle, but again, if you close strong, our talent level will be damn near on par with them in short order. We need to close with 6-7 key prospects down the stretch of this class and we will be closer than we've been since I've been following the program.

Ags4DaWin said:

---

You are assuming that star ratings have inherent meaning and are a predictable indicator of overall talent. This is not the case.

As has been illustrated some kids get stars just because of who is recruiting them.

Why don't we just let Jimbo go after players that he feels will excel within his system?

---

you don't know anything about statistics do you?

Look up NFL draft chance based on recruiting stars.


Also don't be like the typical uneducated person that uses statistical outliers to try to prove their point. Look at the large group as a whole.

if you aren't out of school yet. take a class in Prob and Stat.

I'm confused. I thought 247 rankings were dog sh*t whenever tu entered the top 5. Are they back to being useful now?

Meximan said:

---

The SB Nation guys took a look at this, in fact, with a form of composite, weighted-average four-year average system: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2019/2/7/18215228/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2019-class

Succinctly, Bama is 1, Georgia 2, LSU 3, Auburn 7, and Clemson 10, while A&M is (somewhat surprisingly), 8. The Georgia loss this last weekend notwithstanding, all of those teams should rough up everyone else they play but each other, where they're likely to split the results, more or less. A&M could be a legit top 10, 15 team if they weren't incomplete and getting beat on by other top 10 teams.

Losing five games this year would not be, by any stretch, an embarrassment considering how strong those programs are. On the bright side, the Aggies will probably crush whoever they play in the bowl game by like, 50 or 60 points.

---

I don't know where they get their numbers, but it's off.

According to the composite rankings, we have the 18, 13, 17, and 4th ranked classes on campus right now. With attrition factored into what is actually on campus, the 247 team talent composite shows we are 12th overall. Our upper class talent is probably closer to 15-17 range since that top 5 2019 class is helping us out a ton. By 2020, you hope to have something like 13, 17, 4, and 6-7 on campus. Then we'd sneak back into the top 10, but still the talent would like in our FR/SO classes.

Since I've been following A&M recruiting from about 2002, I have never seen an A&M team with 3 great classes on campus at once. Our goal should be to close out 2020 strong and end up somewhere around 5-9 range. Then to land another top 10, or hopefully top 5 class in 2021 so we can finally have 3 straight top 10 classes on campus at once.

I trust Jimbo and his staff to evaluate and recruit a roster that can win, regardless of star rankings.

But lets also be honest. The two teams that gave Jimbo a reputation for being an elite coach were full of 5 stars and highly ranked 4-stars.

On both sides of the ball. Those defenses were stacked with 5-stars. Joyner, Jernigan, Jones, Ramsey, Edwards, McDaniel, etc.

A&M is ranked higher in that study because of the higher weight they give to recent classes

How is Clemson so good with a relatively low ranking?

247's numbers are a great example of false precision.

To close this class successfully and continue with significant momentum, the team needs to win against the cupcake UTSA and the MS schools, plus one of Georgia or LSU, with Georgia being the likely one. With signing day being in December, the bowl game won't matter much, JMO.

I anticipate three more losses (MS schools and LSU). Looking bad from here to the end will not help our recruiting finish strong. If the worst case scenario occurs and 5-7 happens, I think the 2020 class loses several of its best recruits.

It's a steep climb from here to the end.

agent-maroon said:

---

Quote:

---

I'd rather recruit more talented players and take my chances with them.

Not coaches' sons

---

Serious question, why not coaches sons if the talent is there?

---

I'll concede the point. IF they are good enough.

Realistically. No BS texags talking points.

Seven Costanza said:

---

It would be interesting to look at Clemson's recruiting over the past 10-15 years. They are one of the few non-historically great programs that has managed to achieve blue blood status.

---

In the modern era of college football (early '70s on), Clemson is roughly tied with Notre Dame in winning percentage -- right about even with t.u. and ahead of LSU. If you go all time, they slip only about 2 slots. Historically, they're up there.

91AggieLawyer said:

---

Seven Costanza said:

---

It would be interesting to look at Clemson's recruiting over the past 10-15 years. They are one of the few non-historically great programs that has managed to achieve blue blood status.

---

In the modern era of college football (early '70s on), Clemson is roughly tied with Notre Dame in winning percentage -- right about even with t.u. and ahead of LSU. If you go all time, they slip only about 2 slots. Historically, they're up there.

---

Clemson's all-time winning percentage is .616 which is well below the Longhorns (.706). It's not much different than our's (.606). Clemson is ranked 22nd all time.

LSU's is .653. Clemson's winning percentage is closer to Southern Miss (.581) and a bunch of unremarkable programs than LSU.

But, the answer to why Clemson is so good right now is coaching and leadership.

Alabama and a bunch of the all-time great programs have all gone through mediocrity when they've had mediocre coaching and leadership.

Speaking of Wisconsin where the hell do they purchase their oline from?

Mtn_Guide said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

Mtn_Guide said:

---

OP, I think your formula is over-simplistic and kind of silly. You are way too over-concerned with stars.

There is a reason why 247 does a points average rather than just stars. There is almost no discernable difference between a player who ranks 0.89 and a player who ranks 0.90 but one could be a 3 star while another a 4 star. Just use a scoring average it's a much better reflection of where the player stands.

The idea that JFF is some kind of crazy one-off just isn't true. Two qbs off the top of my head who were 3 stars in high school are named Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield. Case Keenum was a 2 star and so was Mike Evans originally IIRC.

Then I have to ask how does your formula account for something like Texas who is highly ranked but also leads the nation in missed tackles?

---

Yes, it is simplistic, and that's the idea. I wanted something that could be intuitive and not a complex math formula with inputs that cannot be accurately measured.

---

I think the easiest way to look at it is simply looking at the average recruit rating. I think you will get a much more accurate view of how we stack up.

---

The point of my post is not to see how we stack up. If that was the case, then you are right and I agree about average rec rating.

My point was to try and put in a quantitive element to where we need to be and compare it to where we currently are. My hypothesis is that our combined 5 and 4 stars need to be of a certain multiple more than our 3 stars for us to be "elite" like Alabama and Clemson.

At this point we are "par". Earlier we were below par, so there is some good progress. But now we need to capitalize on this and get into the elite levels. I think Texas is currently recruiting at elite levels this year. We are, I would say good but not great.

So many non-Aggies in this thread