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I'll pick against us, when we actually lose an opener under sumlin. And no, Florida 2012 doesn't count as it should have been la tech the week before.
Pretty sure we would have lost LA Tech if it was our first game...
La Tech played Houston the first game of the season. Houston went 5-7 that year. La tech gave up 49 points and scored 56. A&M had a pretty good/decent defense in 2012 (tied for 28th in scoring D compared to la techs 62nd ranked D) and while its no guarantee we win that game, I think it's probable that we would have out-talented them.
If we play that game, facing the lack of Defensive talent presumably would have allowed us to see that Johnny was a great scrambler and deadly outside of the pocket while passing. Something we didn't know going into Florida whom had amazing talent on that side of the ball.
Basically, what I'm saying is in your mind you can believe what you want. I'll stick with my opinion.