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The assumption is Tate Martell knows what he's getting into.
The nation's No. 2-ranked 2017 high school quarterback at prep powerhouse Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas committed before his junior season. The five-star recruit has more highlight tape than some college seniors headed for the draft.
Martell is such a can't-miss prospect that former USC coach Steve Sarkisian offered him in eighth grade.
Tate the Great is that, well, great.
"Tate's got a live arm, that's not going to change," said Martell's former Gorman coach, Tony Sanchez, who is now going into his second year as head coach at UNLV.
What is changing are the odds at success. As a five-star prospect, those odds are actually against Martell. Time, history and impatience say that he is almost as likely to transfer from College Station than to start a game there.
Martell is about to enter a system where he actually is more likely to leave than to start a full season. Never mind that commitment and national rating is for 2017, more than a year from now.
Never mind that commitment is to Texas A&M which is, at least, a curiosity -- if not the center -- regarding what is wrong with college quarterback development these days.
The most important position in football has become the most tenuous and uncertain at the college level. It's not an illusion lately that the best and brightest quarterbacks don't stick with their original school at a record rate. The numbers scream it.
CBS Sports researched the top five quarterback signees -- both dual-threat and pro-style -- since 2010 as ranked by 247Sports. More than 40 percent of those players (24) transferred at least once. Just over half (30) started a game, but still four of those 30 eventually either changed positions or gave up the game due to physical reasons.
Only 17 of 59 total signees from that group became what would be called established starters without either transferring or changing positions.
Only two became All-Americans. One won a Heisman Trophy: Jameis Winston.
By way of comparison, in the previous six years (2004-09), 75 percent of those quarterbacks at least became part-time starters. Slightly more than one-third of the entire group transferred.
"Nowadays, these quarterbacks, they're getting those four- and five-star egos," Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield said. "They're getting their heads blown up by those recruiters telling them they can play right away."
Mayfield is and isn't part of the phenomenon. He wasn't on any top recruiting lists when he became the first true freshman walk-on to start at a season at quarterback for a Power Five team (Texas Tech in 2013).
Dissatisfied with playing time, he transferred to OU, helping lead the Sooners to the College Football Playoff.
"When things don't go as planned or how they're told," Mayfield added, "Yeah, it's frustrating."
What seems to be lost is perspective. Everything has to work right now reflecting an urgent ethos among millennials. Steve Young once waited behind Joe Montana for four years with the 49ers. Much-celebrated prospect Kyler Murray left Texas A&M after making three starts.
"That's impatience at the highest level working its way back down," said quarterback trainer George Whitfield. "[NFL] ownership wants coaches to get them in the playoffs within two years. In the college football ranks, the AD wants to get it done within two years."
Sanchez added: "I don't know how much we're teaching patience anymore. It used to be you're expected to go and be in a grind your freshman year and redshirt or back up. Then sophomore year you fight for it.
"Now, the perception is you've been so hyped up and recruited so heavily and told you're so great when you get there."
Martell's new college home-to-be recently shoved a long-simmering issue to the forefront. Aggies coach Kevin Sumlin saw both of his blue-chip quarterbacks leave within days after the regular season. Kyle Allen transferred to Houston after his sophomore season in 2015. Murray -- son of Aggies legacy Kevin Murray -- ended up at Oklahoma.
Think of what they left behind. If one had stayed, he all but would have been assured of being an SEC starting quarterback.
"You kind of wonder what's going on down there at A&M," Mayfield said. "Both those guys have played and started games."
In fact, ever since Johnny Manziel won the Heisman, A&M has been a nest of quarterback instability. Former Aggies Matt Joeckel (TCU), Kenny Hill (also TCU) at Matt Davis (SMU) also have transferred since 2012.
CBS Sports reached out to multiple sources surrounding the current quarterback situation at A&M. None chose to comment.
Even without the revolving door in College Station, Texas, the procurement of quarterback talent has never been more difficult. No other position demands so much production so early. No other position has so many outside influences. That's because no other position is more valued.
"There's only one of them," said Matt Dudek, Arizona's director of on-campus recruiting and player personnel, of the quarterback position. "If you're an offensive lineman, there's five spots. If you're a linebacker, there's three spots."
Up until a few years ago, coaches didn't have to deal with the loss of their established quarterbacks on the back end as well. Graduate transfers are allowed to switch programs without penalty if they have earned their degree for their final year of eligibility.
In 2015 alone, Everett Golson (Notre Dame to Florida State), Vernon Adams (Eastern Washington to Oregon) and Jake Rudock (Iowa to Michigan) all led their new teams to at least nine-win seasons.
"It's almost like free agency in the NFL," said Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook.
Some of that outside leverage was detailed by CBS Sports last week in describing the growing influence of offseason seven-on-seven.
The offseason activity -- essentially backyard touch football -- has evolved into a big-time promotional moneymaker for apparel companies.
"They have more than just the high school coach influencing them now," Sanchez said. "It's the high school coach and it's the seven-on-seven coach and sometimes it's the third party, which is the private trainer."
All that doesn't account for one huge, familiar influence.
"Quarterback dads," one college coordinator said, "have always been the worst."
National recruiting insider Ryan Bartow of 247Sports says he visits six or seven high schools a day during the height of his recruiting evaluations.
"If I get a call from that quarterback's dad by the time I'm at the next school, I don't cover that kid," Bartow said.
Dad influence has become that pervasive, a point backed by Sanchez.
"They're the ones who have gone out and sought out a quarterback coach," he said. "They spent a bunch of money and a bunch of time. Obviously, a picture has been painted to them about their kid's future. If it doesn't turn out right away, a lot of frustration can build up. The knee-jerk reaction is to yank them.
"Very few of them just say, 'All right son, I've done everything I can for you.'"
It may be a reflection of a short-attention-span society. It doesn't take much to be famous in today's world, but it takes old-fashioned values to last.
Today, it seems if you ain't startin', you might be departin'.
The last 10 championship games (BCS, CFP) have featured the underwhelming likes of these starting quarterbacks: Matt Flynn, Todd Boeckman, Greg McElroy and Jordan Jefferson.
But as noted by CBS Sports' Jon Solomon, first-time starters are becoming a trend in winning championships. One of those -- Ohio State's J.T. Barrett -- is among three freshman All-American quarterbacks since 2013. Bucking the trend, all three were top-five prospects. (UCLA's Josh Rosen, Penn State's Christian Hackenberg are the others.)
No wonder the best quarterbacks are almost always committed by the summer of their senior year. That's the standard now if you want to play right away.
"Senior film is irrelevant," one Power Five assistant said.
"If he doesn't commit to someone by Fourth of July [before his senior season], he's not going D-I," Bartow said.
That's because stacking quarterbacks properly in the pipeline has become a fine art. For example, Allen will have to sit out 2016 at Houston in time to assume the starting job vacated by Greg Ward Jr., a rising senior. Murray would theoretically step in for Mayfield at OU in 2017.
"It's put a lot of pressure on quarterbacks," Michigan State co-offensive coordinator Dave Warner said. "If they want to choose one school, they've got to beat someone to make that commitment. It's not a healthy situation."
All of it creates that ongoing and unending pressure to get all of it right. Florida was undefeated at midseason when quarterback Will Grier was popped by the NCAA for a positive drug test. Rather than return and be eligible at midseason for an SEC power, Grier has chosen to transfer.
"You're running away from a problem," Bartow said. "You're going to [otherwise possibly] be the starter at Florida."
Recruiting services and their accompanying hype have to bear some of the blame as well. It may have started 25 years ago with Todd Marinovich, USC's "Robo QB." It may have started a decade ago when Jimmy Clausen rolled up in a limousine and famously flashed four state championship rings on a visit to Notre Dame.
Disappointments and underachievements now abound. Anthony Alford -- the No. 3 dual-threat in 2012 -- transferred from Southern Miss to Ole Miss before giving it all up to play baseball. David Ash the No. 5 pro prospect in 2011 never did develop at Texas and eventually gave up the game because of concussion symptoms.
Jake Heaps left BYU after a season for Kansas before ending up at Miami.
Cincinnati's Gunner Kiel, 2012's No. 1 pro-style quarterback, might as well be the poster boy for the impatient quarterback. Going into his senior season, Kiel is known as much for once committing to Indiana and LSU before transferring from Notre Dame. He has started the last two seasons for the Bearcats.
Whatever happened to good old fashioned competition? Everyone interviewed for this story agreed: It just seems that quarterbacks everywhere are less likely to stay for protracted fight for the starting job.
There are too many other options waiting out there.
"They are built up -- I hate to say it -- to a place of fame," Sanchez said, wishing the best for Martell. "They were never walk-on celebrities like they are these days."
R... And no one else will either. Cliff notes bishes! quote:Exactly. This isn't an "A&M problem". The example of course is A&M, but QBs transfer from all schools.
The point is more and more players are moving around to get playing time. It isn't an "A&M problem" only.
Bama hasn't had QB that was a Bama commit as a freshman since McCarron left. Those guys had to come from somewhere.
Gilbert left tu. Mayfield was practically put on the bus to Norman by Kingsbury. These guys know they have a limited window of opportunity to see the field before their eligibility runs out. The difference being, every single player has NFL aspirations these days. Simply too much money on the table.
Get that first contract and the signing bonus, and they have already made 10-20 years of salary at any other job they could get.
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"Quarterback dads," one college coordinator said, "have always been the worst."
It's all sports dads,
Sports Dad
quote:Why should we expect the kids to be patient when everyone else around them - including us - isn't?
"That's impatience at the highest level working its way back down," said quarterback trainer George Whitfield. "[NFL] ownership wants coaches to get them in the playoffs within two years. In the college football ranks, the AD wants to get it done within two years."
quote:That approach is fairly common. It was Mack Brown who started promising exclusivity to QB recruits...with disastrous consequences I might add.
Why should we expect the kids to be patient when everyone else around them - including us - isn't?
However... I can't find it now, but I could have sworn I saw something back when Showers was transferring to the effect that Sumlin's recruiting pitch to QBs includes the idea that he will recruit more than one, they will compete, and if they don't get picked to start and want to leave, he would help them find a landing spot and not block them beyond the stipulation of teams in the SEC or on the schedule. So the Showers, Joekel, and Davis transfers fit within that system, rather than indicating that the system was broken.
The Hill, Allen, and especially Murray situations strike me as this approach breaking down. But I'm not sure whether (if I'm right in the first place that Sumlin is doing this) the approach should be changed.
Although it does make me wonder about a Moneyball approach to QB recruiting where you look for undervalued guys who are more likely to stick around at the cost of missing on the top prospects. But the craziness about recruiting makes that harder to do even if you wanted to.
quote:This is the most humorous part of that article. If you want to get the opinion of a current QB, ask someone who has stuck with his program.
Baker Mayfield commenting on the ego's of 4 and 5 stars? That dbag might have an ego bigger than all 4 and 5 stars combined.
"wonder what's going on down at A&M"...spoken from a guy who ran away from tech after one season. How is this kid being looked at for comments on the current state of the high school/college QB? Especially after Patterson blasted him and his helicopter dad in the news.
quote:That's not true. Blake Sims was only ever at Bama. He started as a QB before moving to RB/WR and then back to QB during McCarron's senior year.
Bama hasn't had QB that was a Bama commit as a freshman since McCarron left. Those guys had to come from somewhere.
quote:quote:This is the most humorous part of that article. If you want to get the opinion of a current QB, ask someone who has stuck with his program.
Baker Mayfield commenting on the ego's of 4 and 5 stars? That dbag might have an ego bigger than all 4 and 5 stars combined.
"wonder what's going on down at A&M"...spoken from a guy who ran away from tech after one season. How is this kid being looked at for comments on the current state of the high school/college QB? Especially after Patterson blasted him and his helicopter dad in the news.
quote:I stand corrected. But the point remains. Sims was not a QB riding the pine the whole time he was at Bama. He was switched to another position.quote:That's not true. Blake Sims was only ever at Bama. He started as a QB before moving to RB/WR and then back to QB during McCarron's senior year.
Bama hasn't had QB that was a Bama commit as a freshman since McCarron left. Those guys had to come from somewhere.
They've only had one QB transfer in, Jake Coker, although they did seem to pursue Everett Gholson and that graduate transfer who is expected to replace Vernon Adams at Oregon next year. Thankfully they didn't get him and now we'll get to see Kiffin develop a long term starter out of Cooper Batemen, Blake Barnett or Jalen Hurts. I believe David Cornwall will be the next to transfer out after this next season.
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Regarding Harbaugh:
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The article was pointless in listing all the recent transfers without really breaking them down.
Showers was a graduate transfer that wasn't going to start his senior year over the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.
I believe Joeckel was also a graduate transfer that saw he wasn't going to be starting his senior year either.
Hill drank himself out of school. Wasn't he pretty much academically ineligible by the time he left?
Davis, while a great competitor, just wasn't playing well enough at QB after a couple seasons to beat the top guys out so he went JC and then to SMU.
The only real super impatience or wtf is going on QB transfers were Allen and Murray.
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Bama hasn't had QB that was a Bama commit as a freshman since McCarron left. Those guys had to come from somewhere.