I don't expect him to make it, but won't be shocked if he does.

I'm hoping he does just to see the carnage on letsrun.

Would love to see him make it, but l don't see it happening.

Also, LetsRun is pretty much a terrible cesspool. Would love to see the meltdown there

Lets Run is the culmination of the World's most knowledgeable track and field fans who have well thought out and articulate discussions without the presence of any trolls. As such, I trust their authority that Walamsy doesn't have a chance.

Sincerely yours, an avid Lets Run poster.

I can't see how this guy has a chance. This isn't his sport, at least not at the elite level.

If he somehow made the US Olympic team, it would not speak well of US long distance running.

I'd disagree. I might say it just speaks more to the runner and his training if he makes it. For someone who has "never run a marathon" you'd have to think an ultra runner has a good shot during his first one. Everyone "steps up" to the marathon. Everyone except this guy who blitzed the ultra scene and is coming down from the mountains to mix it up on the pavement. IF he makes it (and I'm betting he doesn't but comes close), it might make some runners rethink their training and race build up. Who knows?

This story is really fun, intriguing, and something I'll be following.

I knew nothing about him going in, but I really enjoyed the story. I'll be watching to see how he does in qualifying.

YokelRidesAgain said:

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I can't see how this guy has a chance. This isn't his sport, at least not at the elite level.

If he somehow made the US Olympic team, it would not speak well of US long distance running.

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If you do the math on his adjusted time from his most recent half, he could potentially run a time that could snag the third spot on the right day. He probably won't, but saying "this isn't his sport" is laughable.

Look up the results for the 2016 qualifying times. Ward took 3rd with a 2:13 flat. Walmsley is probably in the 2:12-2:13 range on a perfect day.

And I also like that comment that walmsley making the team would not speak well of us long distance running...what do you think the guy does for a living?

I think Walmsley hits ~2:15. Don't think he makes the team, but he'll finish in the Top 10.

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He probably won't, but saying "this isn't his sport" is laughable.

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Except that...it isn't. The tactical 10K at the end of a competitive road marathon is not something that features in ultra events.

Even if he manages to hang around for the first 20 miles, he's going to get chewed up in a race to the finish tape. I would be surprised if he finishes in the top 50.

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Look up the results for the 2016 qualifying times. Ward took 3rd with a 2:13 flat. Walmsley is probably in the 2:12-2:13 range on a perfect day.

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How many of those 2016 runners were wearing Vaporflys? There are 28 runners in this field who have gone under 2:13. Eighteen have gone under 2:12.

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And I also like that comment that walmsley making the team would not speak well of us long distance running.

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It's just odd to me that a lot of people are cheering for a guy to make the Olympic team who would, even on his best day, finish 2-3 MILES behind Kipchoge. Admittedly it's unlikely that any American man is going to win a medal in Tokyo, but it wouldn't be a great testament to American marathon running if a guy who has NO chance makes the team.

We are going to have to agree to disagree here and see what happens. But I'm guessing you don't follow walmsley on Strava?

And I hate to tell you, but our top guy possibly won't be within a couple miles of kipchoge on race day.

I like the part where he casually shows how he beat those marathoners in college at the 10K. I like how he's in their heads. I like how they all know he's there. I like that he's overcome adversity and hasn't been groomed by Nike since he was a toddler. I love the fact that a bunch of guys, who aren't even relevant on the world stage themselves, seem to be concerned about this interloper. Seems like a good story. Seems like there was some jealousy from people who have plateaued, whereas Walmsley may not have done so yet. I'll root for him - I always root for the guys who put in the work AND have a chip on their shoulder.

He also ran a 62 minute half in Arizona although the course was a tad short so probably ~63-63.5 minutes and over the weekend he ran a 31 miler at 5:34 pace.

Atlanta is gonna have some elevation change to it which should play in his favor. Its more NYC than Chicago or Berlin. I think a lot of depends on how his speed work has been. If he does what he does at something like WS100 and tries to set the pace and break people, he won't be close.

Regardless, its gonna be fun as hell to watch.

Atlanta map

wangus12 said:

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I think Walmsley hits ~2:15. Don't think he makes the team, but he'll finish in the Top 10.

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You are likely correct, but if everything lines up, he could be in the 2:13 range.

I think overall we will see slightly slower times overall due to the hills and humidity. LA was warm in 2016, which resulted in slower times. Houston saw fast times in 2012, but weather was good and its flat.

wangus12 said:

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Atlanta map

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This is why he has a chance. 1300ft of climb and same for decent will feel like a pancake flat course for a dude who is used to running over mountains and through canyons. His best event is a regular suck-fest. None of us know what he will do on the 29th, but it's going to be fun to watch.

Also, our men did great in Rio overall. If you scored it like a cross country race with 3 runners, we would have won.

Sapporo will be fairly flat from what I can tell... Is there a good reason that we're vetting the best on a hilly course? What am I missing?

I don't follow Galen Rupp, other that the fact that I've been hearing about him for 20 years, and while he is highly decorated and has won a TON of stuff, it doesn't appear that he ever quite got to where he was supposed to get, but maybe that's just because hype is never fair. After all those years training with the abusive Salazar and turning his body into something that looks like a holocaust survivor, isn't his move to the marathon kind of like the pot calling the kettle black? Rupp runs 26.2 because he can't cut it at 6.2 any more. Now, again, I don't know if Rupp has talked any smack or not, but I suspect the root of negative vibes about Walmsley comes from Nike. Walmsley is outside their Salazar/Oregon/sponsorship pipeline. He hasn't followed their "sell your soul to us" approach, yet here he is. Nike makes me feel about as warm inside as Baylor.

Maybe some of you guys who know the sport better can correct or verify some of this outsider's rant...

i'm more interested to see how Rupp does without Salazar and his drug cocktails. Rupp never tested positive, but knowing what I know about Salazar, I'm sure he was/is doping.

Agreed. Not to mention he had that Achilles worked on last year. He went 1:01 in Phoenix over the weekend. 2 minutes slower than his PR in 2018.

94chem said:

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I suspect the root of negative vibes about Walmsley comes from Nike. Walmsley is outside their Salazar/Oregon/sponsorship pipeline.

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That may be true, but I think it has more to do with the fact that he's primarily an ultra-runner. Like you said, one could argue that Rupp moved up to the marathon when he stopped being able to compete at shorter track races. I think a lot of elite marathoners think that ultra runners are just slow marathoners who couldn't hack it anymore and decided to take it to the trails and run farther. So now they scoff at Walmsley winning Western States with an average pace of 8:40/mile, without really understanding how insanely difficult that is. I think Walmsley could have spent the last 4 years being an elite marathoner, but he just enjoys the trails more.

Hijacking this to see if anyone else is going to the Trials on the 29th? I land in Atlanta on Friday night and am staying near the start line. Anyone else going to be there?!

You lucky SOB. I tried to talk my wife into it, but noooo that would be a waste of money.

Running Cowtown instead

I was fortunate enough that I have a work conference down that way that starts on Sunday morning (fly in Sat night) so this was an easy addition and on the way for me.

wangus12 said:

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You lucky SOB. I tried to talk my wife into it, but noooo that would be a waste of money.

Running Cowtown instead

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While it is really cool to watch (I saw '08 in NYC), unless you are at the finish line, you have no idea what is going on in the race. I guess these days it is easier since you can follow online, but I like to watch the race unfold.

that said, if i had the opportunity to see another one in person, i'd do it.

Totally agree. I have the same opinion of weekend days at the Masters...better to watch on TV than be there. Thanks to the internet and unlimited data, I'll probably stream the race on my phone and watch it live with the intention of seeing the lead pack a few times and then watching them finish.

I also have a few local acquaintances running so going to try and catch them as well.

Nice! I got to watch the trials in Houston in 2012 and it was a fun experience. You can still sort of watch the race unfold since it's a looped course.

We might as well make this a general Olympic Trials thread. Here's a decent write-up on the race favorites. Sounds like it should be a battle between Rupp, Ward, Fauble, and Korir up front.

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2020/02/olympic-marathon-trials-question-of-day-which-man-has-the-best-shot-to-make-the-team-other-than-galen-rupp/

also, i'll leave this here...

https://www.strava.com/activities/3083545712

Walmsley smashed the course record at Pemberton 50k. Its a "fast" course for trail running, but still has more climbing than the olympic trials. Of course, all the detractors are saying that he's goign to be burned out before the trials even start.

We'll see.

Making my picks for this weekend.

Women: Hasay, Sisson, Linden

Men: Ward, Korir, Rupp.

Hasay and Rupp both depend on whether they can do it without getting injured. Emily Sisson has little experience, but a 2:23 to her name.

Again I would love Walmsley to make it and I think he'll be close, but not by enough. Scott Fauble would probably be my 4th male and Molly Huddle/Sara Hall would be my 4th female.

As cool as it would be, everything I've read suggests that last 10K of the marathon for these guys is unlike anything one has experienced. Can't see how an ultra guy like him can be prepared for it. Hope I'm wrong.

I would love Fauble and Walmsley to make it just so I can watch their build to the Olympics on Strava. I don't think it happens though. Agree with your picks, wangus.