thoughts ?
some men you just cant reach ...
ac04 said:
if you want a classic car buy one, but don't kid yourself about it being an investment.
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If he put that in AAPL then, that money would be worth $7.7mm.
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So should you be trying to get into the vintage-car game? In a word: no. No way. Absolutely not. Here's why:
1. Lots of Idling
The Pebble Beach sales, like most marquee car auctions, are an exception. Only about 3 percent of vintage cars sell at auction and they are the best of the best. It's like watching a super-cut of holes-in-one and deciding to try your hand at golf.
In reality, values for scads of vintage cars have been relatively stable for years. Detroit classics from the 1950s, for example, have mostly idled in the past decade, according to Hagerty Insurance, which tracks the values of the various old rides it underwrites. The same goes for muscle cars and so-called affordable collectibles like the Triumph TR6 and the Volkswagen Beetle.
2. A Tendency to Stall
Rolling assets are not in any way recession-proof, no matter what the exotic car dealer tells you. In the 2008 downturn, the only upside to owning a vintage Mercedes 300 with gull-wing doors was feeling slightly less frightened to actually drive it. From the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009, the value of "blue-chip" collectibles like "the Gullwing" slid by 19 percent, according to Hagerty. That's more than twice as much as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. A sampling of vintage Ferraris in that window fared even worse, plummeting 25 percent.
3. Running Hot
Post-recession, the rebound was swift. A lot of vintage-car gurus believe that the run-up in prices since the recession is officially in "frothy" territory. A Hagerty monthly index of expert sentiment on the market has dropped 9 percent in the past year.
Rick Drewry, senior claims specialist of collector cars at American Modern Insurance Group, said the auctions are starting to attract investors who don't know much about cars at all. "I'm starting to see cars that weren't ever that good go up in value," he explained. "For the longest time, they were throw-aways." In short, we may be approaching peak Porsche.
4. Slow and S****
Here's an uncomfortable truth: Classic cars are kind of awful -- at least relatively speaking 1 . Sure, they are moving time capsules of miraculous engineering and most of them have swoon-worthy looks. But would you race a 50-year-old road bicycle or do your taxes on a computer from 1965? In terms of going fast and handling the curves, today's most pedestrian vehicles are far more capable than almost all vintage rides.
Take that Ferrari 365 from 1972. It gets to 60 miles-per-hour in about 7 seconds and has a top speed of 163. Today's sportiest Ford Focus puts out similar numbers with eight fewer cylinders, a bunch more airbags, and a back-up camera to boot. Sure, it doesn't have an 8-track, but it also doesn't have six separate carburetors to tune.
5. If You Must Buy
If absolutely none of these facts sway you, at least go for the German and Italian brands. Avoid anything manufactured by the Americans or the Brits. Sure, they are hot at the moment and tend to crash harder, but the economic magic behind companies like Porsche and Ferrari is on the supply side. They simply didn't make that many cars, which means that when markets get hot they have a bit of a turbo effect.
When shopping for your dream car, consider models from the 1980s and 1990s. They were the ones on bedroom posters of Generation Xers who are entering in their prime earning years and they are just now starting to appreciate accordingly. A Lamborghini Countach from 1989 is the perfect example. "For a kid in the '80s, that car was like a unicorn," Drewry said.
Finally, if you're bent on buying old cars, get as many as you can afford. Classic vehicles are like tiny tech companies: it's very difficult to tell which ones are going to take off. Just don't forget about the management fees (read: mechanics).
The air cooled Porsches have increased their value considerably. They are considered collectible now and a lot of the purists don't like the newer water cooled versions that started in the late 90s.Complete Idiot said:
Have a friend who bought a mid 80's Porsche for $18K maybe 7 or 8 years ago and it's now worth around $35K, or so he says. I guess it's possible with a lot of research and understanding car market trends.
It ain't worth **** if he hasn't sold it.Complete Idiot said:
Have a friend who bought a mid 80's Porsche for $18K maybe 7 or 8 years ago and it's now worth around $35K, or so he says. I guess it's possible with a lot of research and understanding car market trends.
CanyonAg77 said:
Bloomberg is spot on, except they forget to factor in age. Most collector cars go up in value about 40 years after they're made. Guys who couldn't afford a muscle car when they were 16 in 1970, often try to buy one when they hit 50-60 and have a lot of disposable income. When they start hitting 75+, the interest drops off.
Am I your friend?Complete Idiot said:
Have a friend who bought a mid 80's Porsche for $18K maybe 7 or 8 years ago and it's now worth around $35K, or so he says. I guess it's possible with a lot of research and understanding car market trends.
Ever wonder if some day someone will say "Damn, when I was a kid, I had a *****in' 2018 F150. Man, they don't make em like that anymore"?Duncan Idaho said:
I love my triumph. It is a lot of fun to drive it around the neighborhood and on the twisties. But damn it is a terrible car (just like every car from before the introduction of the OBD2 reader and some kind of efi), it is slow, it is uncomfortable but it is easy and fun to work on and I can point to it and say "I made that".
I have yet to get it perfectly dialed in.
The only good thing classics cars have is that they are better looking for the most part.
BrazosDog02 said:Ever wonder if some day someone will say "Damn, when I was a kid, I had a *****in' 2018 F150. Man, they don't make em like that anymore"?Duncan Idaho said:
I love my triumph. It is a lot of fun to drive it around the neighborhood and on the twisties. But damn it is a terrible car (just like every car from before the introduction of the OBD2 reader and some kind of efi), it is slow, it is uncomfortable but it is easy and fun to work on and I can point to it and say "I made that".
I have yet to get it perfectly dialed in.
The only good thing classics cars have is that they are better looking for the most part.
Yeah, me too. LOL. It really is!Duncan Idaho said:
I always laugh when people say "they don't make 'em like they used"
The only proper response is "I know. Isn't it great!"
This is absolutely true. As lb3 also mentions below, which supports your post, as people age out into old age their dream cars from their youth lose popularity to the next generation's dream cars. The Deuce Coups, and others like that are losing their owners to old age. Think American Graffiti, that was set in the early 60s. People that were teenagers/young adults then are mid 70s now..or dead. Hell, I am an old and I have no desire for one. Now a late 60s SS 396 etc would be cool. But 10 years from now as my generation ages out they will lose popularity as well.CanyonAg77 said:
Bloomberg is spot on, except they forget to factor in age. Most collector cars go up in value about 40 years after they're made. Guys who couldn't afford a muscle car when they were 16 in 1970, often try to buy one when they hit 50-60 and have a lot of disposable income. When they start hitting 75+, the interest drops off.
The 40 year point today is the "malaise" era of cars -- and the few decent ones are bringing good money: Bandit Trans Ams are probably leading the pack, plus all Air-cooled Porsches.IDAGG said:This is absolutely true. As lb3 also mentions below, which supports your post, as people age out into old age their dream cars from their youth lose popularity to the next generation's dream cars. The Deuce Coups, and others like that are losing their owners to old age. Think American Graffiti, that was set in the early 60s. People that were teenagers/young adults then are mid 70s now..or dead. Hell, I am an old and I have no desire for one. Now a late 60s SS 396 etc would be cool. But 10 years from now as my generation ages out they will lose popularity as well.CanyonAg77 said:
Bloomberg is spot on, except they forget to factor in age. Most collector cars go up in value about 40 years after they're made. Guys who couldn't afford a muscle car when they were 16 in 1970, often try to buy one when they hit 50-60 and have a lot of disposable income. When they start hitting 75+, the interest drops off.