New "invest" in the western Caribbean. First model runs initialized this a.m. (take those with a grain of salt) have it in the south central gulf as a 66 kt. storm 5 days out.

quote:

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TROPICAL UPDATE:

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea continues to produce showers and thunderstorms from Cuba and the Cayman Islands southwestward to Honduras. Conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development of this system before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Saturday. There is a low chance...less than 30 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours due to wind shear in the Gulf Of Mexico....

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Since we're thankfully not participating in hurricane season this year, a little surf and a little rain wouldn't hurt.

[This message has been edited by BTHOB4T12 (edited 6/26/2009 12:21p).]

You're right about that little rain part. Yesterday afternoon I heard on the radio there was a severe t-storm warning for SW Chambers/SE Harris counties. First city mentioned in the path of the storm was Shoreacres. I hauled ass down to the pier to watch it blow across the bay. It was black over towards Beach City. Wind picked up, cooled off nice, but never got a drop of ****ing rain.

I got you beat. Here in west Texas City I counted around 30 drops on my patio from the deluge.

....and NWS now shows a 30%-50% chance of that system developing.

I haven't gotten 30 drops of rain at my house since April.

You're right about that chance going up:

quote:

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CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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The last real rain we had was back in April when it flooded two weekends in a row. City still doesn't have the money to clean out the culverts/ditches. Some people who were just finishing up their homes from Ike flooded again, freshwater this time. One man shot himself because of it.