[11:25 AM | 6/10/26] Colorado State University has updated its 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast, lowering the expected number of named storms to 11 and hurricanes to 5. The forecast still calls for 2 major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or stronger).#RGVWX #TXWX pic.twitter.com/MPs3KNABML

— KRGV First Warn 5 (@KRGV_Weather) June 10, 2026

Starting early

The main story for the rest of the week will be heat and rip currents. There's a 10% chance of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche, but significant development is not expected as the system moves into eastern Mexico. We will see an increase in rain chances Sunday onward. pic.twitter.com/XXmzTzLO6b

— NWS Houston (@NWSHouston) June 10, 2026

The National Hurricane Center issues its first suspect area of the tropical season, and it's no surprise as we have been talking about it since last week...

The remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Cristina in the Eastern Pacific will traverse Central America and Mexico before… pic.twitter.com/HdNm0UlVfH

— Rob Perillo (@robperillo) June 10, 2026

The remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Cristina in the Eastern Pacific will traverse Central America and Mexico before entering the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche as a broad and weak area of low pressure by Friday.

Per the NHC: "Conditions are not expected to be favorable for significant development, and the system should move inland over eastern Mexico late this weekend." Chance of development is very low, at 10%.

Some of the tropical moisture from this system looks to get drawn northward through Texas and toward Louisiana by Sunday into early next week when Acadiana can expect an increase in rain chances. #lawx #tropics

[7:00 AM | 6/10/26] The National Hurricane Center, has highlighted the Bay of Campeche under a low chance for formation. Remnant moisture from T.S. Cristina in the Pacific will bring in a chance for scattered rain into the RGV this weekend, and early next week.#RGVWX #TXWX pic.twitter.com/wxffhRJdJN

— KRGV First Warn 5 (@KRGV_Weather) June 10, 2026

woohoo. Thoughts and prayers for Friendswood

Sat 8 am EDT: We are still watching a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf with a 20% chance of formation during the next week. For more tropical information, check out https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb or your local forecast at https://t.co/SiZo8ozBbn pic.twitter.com/0Ey15IxFB1

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 13, 2026

8 inches of rain this week????

The ingredients for flash flooding will be coming together on the Gulf Coast between Texas and Alabama this week. We explain what is known right now, and what we're watching: https://t.co/jyK5i4tJrT pic.twitter.com/KFkumdzKLY

— The Eyewall (@TheEyewallWx) June 14, 2026

Talking about 14 for Houston now.

All eyes on the next super soaker which is now invest #90L (60% from NHC). Surprisingly deep convection continues with this inverted trough of low pressure along the northern Mexican coast. This has a chance to get over the water and become a brief tropical storm before… pic.twitter.com/oqFvKzAmlT

— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) June 16, 2026

STX weather is always an oddity to observe, especially the RGV. A couple of areas of the RGV, namely Weslaco and north east of Weslaco, got a consistent 6" or so of rain, some areas brushing 8".

Other parts, didn't break 2". Now, to see the goat rope that 6" to 8" of rain causes in the mid-valley should be a sphincter tightening spectacle for all that live in the RGV. As I have mentioned on here before, I was able to see arial pictures of the flooding in the RGV after Buelah, like a few hours after. The guy I bought my property in PI had them as he was a big aviation geek and knew the pilot that flew the flight.

https://myrgv.com/uncategorized/2017/09/19/remembering-beulah/

There were huge swaths of the RGV, up through Mission/La Joya area that were under water, and water was running all kinds of directions as it found the path to the Arroyo and river. A forgotten fact is that across from Starr county, in the far western part of the Valley, the Mexican side is the lower river side (hence the really good farm land in that area) and it was basically totally decimated by flood waters, thousands fled across the bridge to RGC. Most of Camargo, and to the east and west of it, was underwater for months, that municipality actually never recovered from the flooding and lost about 30% of it pre-storm population.

Back when Beulah hit the population of the RGV, to include the Mexican side, was around 650-700K. Currently, including the Mexican side, there are at least 3.5mm folks, likely more, on both sides of the River. If another Beulah hits the STX/NMX it is gonna be a disaster of epic proportions.

Heat index of 108 right now. 9pm.

****.....that is horrible

PJYoung said:

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Heat index of 108 right now. 9pm.

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Reason #5365 why I no longer live in the RGV and only visit when absolutely necessary.