Already?!?!?

Too early for this type of drama PJ.

Is it?

I was hoping to make it to June before this stuff started.

Joe B tweet"

Quote:

---

GFS feedback problems likely popping feature too far east toward FLA

My idea is track similar to Euro further west

---

Better hope no more rain!

Ranch country this weekend looking amazingly green as we drove in from Austin.

Great chance of something developing in the gulf this week. Aimed more at Louisiana for now and shouldn't be too bad.

Fortunately no excitement with this storm.

Now it's time to BTHO clemson!

No threats for us still. Florence is gonna hit the East Coast as like a Cat 2 in all probability.

And then a couple behind it are probably no threat to us although the first one will probably threaten the SE a little south of where Florence will. Looooong ways out still.

Just saw that and listened to the Tropical Tidbits website update. Sure looks like it is going to do something in the gulf, just have to wonder if it will drift north enough to bypass or miss deep south Texas.

Yep. It seems like it's gonna form and then we're in the bullseye but it's a huge target. Could miss us 200 miles north or south.

You are hereby anointed my weather dude, and I will have to pay in beer if you see fit, as I am stuck in Houston, headed to Haiti with all kinds of travel issues. I get better info from you than any of those GD weather sites.

All the tracks on the deal in the Yucatan are taking it north, but it will be interesting to see if the typical "Left turn, Mexico" takes place. RGV is due for a soaker tropical storm like in 83' and I think one after that. Or maybe the drought will eat this storm too. Won't help the Valley too much if it gets a ton of rain, as the ground is now wet. God help the Mexican side as they are evacuating flooded out folks already.

Backed off a little bit - likely will cancel the recon plane.

I'm guessing it's at least a depression when the plane gets in there tomorrow



As a general rule of thumb, the less a system organizes the further west it gets so I'm guessing the valley will get some rain out of this one.

Really watching this one as the ground is wet in the valley. Had a bumpy and meandering plane ride the past two days. Once south and east of Florida it smother out, but Newark south sucked ass.

They've back off of it a little bit as last night it lost all high cloud tops for a while.

Conditions are ripe for it to organize in the next 24 hours but it has a ways to go from where it's at now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/html5-avn-long.html
From the above link, if refreshed, it looks like there is some circulation, but I think it is too close to land and too beat up to really organize. But if it is just a big blob of TS's it should dump a lot of rain. One update I saw said it is now moving NW, but who knows.

I can't remember the year, but I think it was 83' and there was a very weak tropical storm that drenched the Island and the lower valley, right along the coast, but not so much up the valley. I want to say it was the last week of September or early October. But there is a lot more people there now. It would be nice if it would go up the river some to Falcon.

Well they're sending in a plane now. 80% of the thunderstorm activity is south of the supposed center.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=95L&product=vis-swir

Ha, now I can see the lower level swirl. I would say 95% of the TD activity is to the south of that swirl.

I don't know why they went 1988 with this graphic but this is how much rain we got from 9/6 thru 9/13.

I don't think this tropical stuff will match even half of that but we will see.

Did the drought eat this storm too? Like it did the one back in 2011??

I keep thinking a bunch of rain is gonna develop, but it seems to die right when it looks to go onshore.

Yeah it's just a very elongated broad area of low pressure. Not impressive.

Houston will see more out of this than we will I think.

It's funny to see some businesses close today and the hype about it last night on the local news.

Tropical sells I guess.

I just don't see it ALTHOUGH those places that have gotten 10+ inches this week have a right to be uneasy.

Speaking of Houston.

Looking good in the watershed.

straight up and to the right

http://falcon.lakesonline.com/Level/

I read that Zapata had almost 8" of rain, for sure the lakes will come up some. But the ground is real dry up there, so it will suck up a bunch of the early rain.