ICON still consistent for a winter storm

historically do we like ICON or GFS better for winter weather?

gigemJTH12 said:

---

Huge shift away from the chance for winter weather in Houston next week with both the GFS and now the Euro.

Need to see if this trend continues today.

— Pat Cavlin (@pcavlin) January 16, 2025

---

and there you go

jenn96 said:

---

Anti-taxxer said:

---

jbanda said:

---

After 2021, I never need to see snow/ice at my house again.

And yes I see the irony about being a snowflake about actual snowflakes.

---

THIS.

I still have PTSD from that week. It was absolutely effing miserable.

---

It's the reason I'll never leave town during a bad weather event.

---

Fk that. We're watching the weather closely. 2021 sucked. If it becomes clear in the next couple of days that will happen again, I'm going to cut the water to the house and we're gonna head to Cabo Sunday for 3 or 4 days. Kids already have Monday off for MLK day.

100% could have been me as well. When I slipped and fell on that skating rink of a street, I managed to only bang my arm.

I don't have to lie to her to hop on a plane, broskie.

It varies from storm to storm it seems like. I personally like ICON a little more for winter weather. Right now, the GFS is the outlier compared to other model runs.

Much humor in all this!

Euro model back on board with winter precipitation for SE Texas. We shall see!

Cromagnum said:

---

Ducks4brkfast said:

---

jenn96 said:

---

Anti-taxxer said:

---

jbanda said:

---

After 2021, I never need to see snow/ice at my house again.

And yes I see the irony about being a snowflake about actual snowflakes.

---

THIS.

I still have PTSD from that week. It was absolutely effing miserable.

---

It's the reason I'll never leave town during a bad weather event.

---

Fk that. We're watching the weather closely. 2021 sucked. If it becomes clear in the next couple of days that will happen again, I'm going to cut the water to the house and we're gonna head to Cabo Sunday for 3 or 4 days. Kids already have Monday off for MLK day.

---

Oh ****. I forgot Monday was a holiday. We are screwed.

---

yeah, we get a 4 day weekend

-Karen

Am I missing something? It looks like we may get some snow and freezing temps for a day and people are fleeing the country?

Sitting in the KC airport reading the latest NWS discussion. They do a good job explaining why they are leaning to the Euro right now.

Says Canadian is one extreme and GFS is the other. Euro sits in the middle and its Operational is right in the sweet spot of its Ensemble.

Cromagnum said:

---

Ducks4brkfast said:

---

jenn96 said:

---

Anti-taxxer said:

---

jbanda said:

---

After 2021, I never need to see snow/ice at my house again.

And yes I see the irony about being a snowflake about actual snowflakes.

---

THIS.

I still have PTSD from that week. It was absolutely effing miserable.

---

It's the reason I'll never leave town during a bad weather event.

---

Fk that. We're watching the weather closely. 2021 sucked. If it becomes clear in the next couple of days that will happen again, I'm going to cut the water to the house and we're gonna head to Cabo Sunday for 3 or 4 days. Kids already have Monday off for MLK day.

---

Oh ****. I forgot Monday was a holiday. We are screwed.

---

Oh I know a certain someone zodiac killer who will be headed to Cancun shortly....surely St. John's School is out on MLK day as well.

What does the Euro say?

Charlie Murphy said:

---

Am I missing something? It looks like we may get some snow and freezing temps for a day and people are fleeing the country?

---

Ohhh, you missed something alright.

Fishing is slow in Cabo due to cold green water. Try further south in Quepos, CR:

https://fishingbooker.com/reports/view/90570

Anti-taxxer said:

---

What does the Euro say?

---

Its operational had light to moderate snow across SETx. Its ensemble probabilities say most of our area has a 60-70% chance of seeing greater than 1 inch of snow.

GFS joins the Euro…. For now.

Am I reading this right? They are predicting 0.1 inches of snow per hour for a couple of hours?

Forget the precipitation, I don't want any part of 19F. This is from the Wunderground App just now.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

---

GFS joins the Euro…. For now.

---

LOL

I still don't think the temps are remotely right on the GFS. … and to a lesser extent the Euro.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

---

12th Man Ag said:

---

Am I reading this right? They are predicting 0.1 inches of snow per hour for a couple of hours?

---

You're not reading that right.

Output from that model gives Houston 5-7 inches and for the record this will change 18 more times between now and the end of the weekend.

---

Agree on the 18 times, but where are you seeing 5-7 inches? (TWSS)

Cromagnum said:

---

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

---

12th Man Ag said:

---

Am I reading this right? They are predicting 0.1 inches of snow per hour for a couple of hours?

---

You're not reading that right.

Output from that model gives Houston 5-7 inches and for the record this will change 18 more times between now and the end of the weekend.

---

Agree on the 18 times, but where are you seeing 5-7 inches? (TWSS)

---

Output maps.



I guess this site doesn't like .png files. I pulled it straight from Total snowfall map on Tropical Tidbits. Pivotal Weather has it too. Bay Ag posted that above .

From Travis Herzog

THURSDAY 1/16/2025 ARCTIC UPDATE

I'm seeing more signs that we may be in for a genuine Gulf coast snowstorm over Southeast Texas starting MLK Day and ending on Tuesday. Based on all the data we have now( (plus looking back at similar weather patterns from the past), our part of the state looks to be most favored for snowfall, and potentially a heavy one. BUT!

BUT! (There's always a "BUT!" 4 to 5 days out...)

This largely hinges on where a low pressure center forms over the Gulf of Mexico. If it forms generally east of Brownsville, it is likely SNOW ON for Southeast Texas. That's what the European computer models is showing.

But if it forms closer to the Bay of Campeche, then it tugs a lot of the moisture along with it. There could still be snow, but it would be generally south of I-10 and may miss Houston entirely like the Christmas Eve snow of 2004. That's what the morning run of the American model is showing...but the new run populating right now is coming in line with the snowier European model.

So what happens if the coastal low forms closer to Texas? Then we could be in for a lot of freezing rain, and that would be a worst-case scenario.

What are currently predicting? We are still holding our snow chances at 40%...for now. But if we continue to see things converging toward the European solution, then those snow chances will be going way up.

I'll update you again later this evening after analyzing some more data. Stay tuned!

If I can say one thing, at this time out, 80% of the time look for models to shift north and east. That doesn't always happen. But as someone in the far south DFW burbs (Cleburne) I've seen the models bullseye my location for the biggest winter precipitation, only to get cold rain. Happened in the last system other than 45 minutes of snow despite being projected for 6+ inches. When it comes to HTX flow, it has happened but far more often that shift to the Waco to Palestine area actually happens. My best guess is greater hiuston gets a mix that melts off, my area gets the northern edge and maybe a dusting, and true central to east central Texas gets a layer of sleet covered by a layer of snow.

Wrap your pipes and get those generators ready. Plumbers are about to become very wealthy