*****2025 Houston Weather*****
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Last: 2 days ago by Mostly Foggy Recollection
Hold on to your butts!!
Are 8 day forecasts for total snowfall about as accurate as hurricane landfalls?
Maybe less when it comes to things like this. Last week Dallas was convinced they were getting a foot of snow and we saw how that turned out
For sure less. I debated whether to post it at all but doomcasting is half the reason for this thread. I'm going to say 0% chance we get 6" of snow
Last four runs of the opeartional GFS have been fairly consistent on some form of wintry precip Tuesday into Wednesday next week. Lets see what the SCW guys have to say the next couple of days.
Seven inches in the tine?
I may take the day off and just watch the carnage on TV all day.
I may take the day off and just watch the carnage on TV all day.
JobSecurity said:
For sure less. I debated whether to post it at all but doomcasting is half the reason for this thread.
No it's not
And if that's what you're going to do then save us all the headache and post that crap elsewhere.
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That map includes sleet in its totals.
JobSecurity said:
For sure less. I debated whether to post it at all but doomcasting is half the reason for this thread. I'm going to say 0% chance we get 6" of snow
Ag_07 said:JobSecurity said:
For sure less. I debated whether to post it at all but doomcasting is half the reason for this thread.
No it's not
And if that's what you're going to do then save us all the headache and post that crap elsewhere.
Simmer down gramps, it's not like I made it up. It's one model run, just like everyone else has been posting, and is a perfectly valid data point. Everyone should know the range of possibilities.
The wunderground forecast now shows almost 3 inches next Tuesday and Wednesday for Katy
A lot of weather apps take a combination of NWS info/raw model outputs and use some averaging to create their forecasts. Varies by app or website, but generally there isn't a meteorologist creating those forecasts for every specific region in those apps.
So based on model runs today, I'd expect most apps to be showing snow for next week. That will change if the models also change.
So based on model runs today, I'd expect most apps to be showing snow for next week. That will change if the models also change.
Ag_07 said:JobSecurity said:
For sure less. I debated whether to post it at all but doomcasting is half the reason for this thread.
No it's not
And if that's what you're going to do then save us all the headache and post that crap elsewhere.
Buddybee is back so he'll cover that part of the thread for us
JobSecurity said:
almost 3 inches next Tuesday and Wednesday for Katy
Sounds like Katy
But then here he is saying precious confidence is going down.
FOR NEXT WEEK...
— Pat Cavlin (@pcavlin) January 14, 2025
Confidence about cold air: 📈
Confidence about snow/ice: 📉
Still a lot of moving pieces... but next week could be very wintry across all of Texas (including #Houston)@KHOU #khou11 #Texas pic.twitter.com/cC0KDLyTZ3
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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gigemJTH12 said:
But then here he is saying precious confidence is going down.FOR NEXT WEEK...
— Pat Cavlin (@pcavlin) January 14, 2025
Confidence about cold air: 📈
Confidence about snow/ice: 📉
Still a lot of moving pieces... but next week could be very wintry across all of Texas (including #Houston)@KHOU #khou11 #Texas pic.twitter.com/cC0KDLyTZ3
No, what he's saying is confidence is low, as it should be, because we are still 6 days out.
His confidence hasn't gone down, but it hasn't gone up, because you can't predict precip 6 days out. You will lose every time.
I think I am gonna bug outta town and work remote for this one.
Cancun? Tell Ted I say hi!
Space City guys say we are appear to be trending away from extreme cold temps.
https://spacecityweather.com/colder-weather-arrives-on-sunday-with-the-possibility-of-snow-early-next-week/
https://spacecityweather.com/colder-weather-arrives-on-sunday-with-the-possibility-of-snow-early-next-week/
The Kraken said:
A post like Travis' all but guarantees we aren't going to get snow.
this is best case scenario. no extreme cold. maybe get a little snow for the kids.Petrino1 said:
Space City guys say we are appear to be trending away from extreme cold temps.
https://spacecityweather.com/colder-weather-arrives-on-sunday-with-the-possibility-of-snow-early-next-week/
do you think power outages like last time should be expected?
gigemJTH12 said:
do you think power outages like last time should be expected?
Unless this comes in significantly colder than currently anticipated, any outages would be resulting from infrastructure damage if there was enough freezing rain or ice to cause issues. Won't know the nature of the precipitation until we get closer to Monday so it's hard to say for now.
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Tom Cardy said:gigemJTH12 said:
do you think power outages like last time should be expected?
Unless this comes in significantly colder than currently anticipated, any outages would be resulting from infrastructure damage if there was enough freezing rain or ice to cause issues. Won't know the nature of the precipitation until we get closer to Monday so it's hard to say for now.
Yep.
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From HGX office
The main takeaway is that we now have medium to high confidence (40-
50% chance) that wintry precipitation will occur over southeast
Texas during the first half of next week. All winter precipitation
types are still on the table right now, but broadly speaking
guidance and the NBM seem to still favor snow as the dominant precip
type. Areas north of the I-10 are more likely to see snow/mix of
sleet. Areas to the south may see a mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain
and potentially liquid rain right along the barrier
islands/nearshore waters. As for how much snow/sleet/ice,
uncertainty is too high to put a specific amount on it just yet.
Broadly speaking, it`s more snow to the north and more ice to the
south. We`ll have a better idea of "how much" over the next few
days, but for now we should prepare for some accumulating winter precip
The main takeaway is that we now have medium to high confidence (40-
50% chance) that wintry precipitation will occur over southeast
Texas during the first half of next week. All winter precipitation
types are still on the table right now, but broadly speaking
guidance and the NBM seem to still favor snow as the dominant precip
type. Areas north of the I-10 are more likely to see snow/mix of
sleet. Areas to the south may see a mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain
and potentially liquid rain right along the barrier
islands/nearshore waters. As for how much snow/sleet/ice,
uncertainty is too high to put a specific amount on it just yet.
Broadly speaking, it`s more snow to the north and more ice to the
south. We`ll have a better idea of "how much" over the next few
days, but for now we should prepare for some accumulating winter precip
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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And from Jeff Lindner
Strong arctic cold front will arrive late this weekend.
Increasing chances for both widespread freezes and winter precipitation over the region next week.
Coastal trough today will move eastward tonight with a cool cloudy and damp day in place before a warm up on Thursday and Friday…enjoy that…because is ends Saturday and we will be in the icebox much of next week. With clear skies temperatures Thursday will reach near 60 and near 70 on Friday with increasing moisture ahead of the first push of colder air that will arrive over the area on Saturday. This first front will be similar to what we saw last we with gusty northerly winds and temperatures falling into the 40's and 50's behind the boundary. Temperatures Sunday AM in the 30's for much of the area with a freeze likely north of the metro with north winds of 10-20mph under clear to partly cloudy skies.
Large and sprawling 1050mb+ arctic high then drops into the northern and central plains late on Sunday and rapidly pushes an arctic cold front through the area…temperatures will tumble from there already cool levels even more with nearly all of the area below freezing by Monday AM and when combined with strong northerly winds wind chills will fall into the 10's and low 20's for much of the area. A cold weather advisory is almost certainly going to be needed. Temperatures will only recover into the 30's/low 40's for highs on Monday. Hard freezes become possible Tuesday AM (along and north of I-10) with freezing conditions likely down to near the coast. Similar if not slightly colder conditions will be in place for next Wednesday AM…but this is getting pretty far out and has some dependence on how much and what kind of precipitation falls. Given such a strong surface high pressure cell moving down the plains…it is possible that temperatures trend downward some over the next few days.
Proper winterization preparations will be needed for this cold air outbreak and will need to be completed by this weekend. Failure to conduct proper winterization efforts will likely result in damage to sensitive infrastructure.
Protect sensitive vegetation (survival of sensitive/tropical vegetation is unlikely).
Protect any exposed outdoor pipes (sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained). Even some interior and protected pipes could have some concerns with this cold.
Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock and make sure water sources do not freeze over.
Persons should limit outside exposure to a minimum.
Winter Precipitation:
Guidance continues to indicate a mid level trough moving across Texas forcing a coastal low similar to last week…the big difference is that temperatures both at the surface and aloft are about 10 degrees colder with this upcoming event which will introduce a mixture of precipitation types (P-type) across the region. While still several days away…confidence and consistency in the guidance is increasing that some sort of impactful winter storm will occur across SE TX starting as early as Monday afternoon/evening and lasting into Wednesday. Forecasted soundings on the global models show a higher potential for snow/sleet the further north over the area (say north of I-10) with a mixture of freezing rain and sleet to the south. The National Blend of Models (NBM) is trending toward more snow than ice for what that is worth at this range. Given surface temperatures below freezing and possibly well below freezing accumulations of ice/snow look possible (how much and what kind of impacts) will be determined in the coming days.
Strong arctic cold front will arrive late this weekend.
Increasing chances for both widespread freezes and winter precipitation over the region next week.
Coastal trough today will move eastward tonight with a cool cloudy and damp day in place before a warm up on Thursday and Friday…enjoy that…because is ends Saturday and we will be in the icebox much of next week. With clear skies temperatures Thursday will reach near 60 and near 70 on Friday with increasing moisture ahead of the first push of colder air that will arrive over the area on Saturday. This first front will be similar to what we saw last we with gusty northerly winds and temperatures falling into the 40's and 50's behind the boundary. Temperatures Sunday AM in the 30's for much of the area with a freeze likely north of the metro with north winds of 10-20mph under clear to partly cloudy skies.
Large and sprawling 1050mb+ arctic high then drops into the northern and central plains late on Sunday and rapidly pushes an arctic cold front through the area…temperatures will tumble from there already cool levels even more with nearly all of the area below freezing by Monday AM and when combined with strong northerly winds wind chills will fall into the 10's and low 20's for much of the area. A cold weather advisory is almost certainly going to be needed. Temperatures will only recover into the 30's/low 40's for highs on Monday. Hard freezes become possible Tuesday AM (along and north of I-10) with freezing conditions likely down to near the coast. Similar if not slightly colder conditions will be in place for next Wednesday AM…but this is getting pretty far out and has some dependence on how much and what kind of precipitation falls. Given such a strong surface high pressure cell moving down the plains…it is possible that temperatures trend downward some over the next few days.
Proper winterization preparations will be needed for this cold air outbreak and will need to be completed by this weekend. Failure to conduct proper winterization efforts will likely result in damage to sensitive infrastructure.
Protect sensitive vegetation (survival of sensitive/tropical vegetation is unlikely).
Protect any exposed outdoor pipes (sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained). Even some interior and protected pipes could have some concerns with this cold.
Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock and make sure water sources do not freeze over.
Persons should limit outside exposure to a minimum.
Winter Precipitation:
Guidance continues to indicate a mid level trough moving across Texas forcing a coastal low similar to last week…the big difference is that temperatures both at the surface and aloft are about 10 degrees colder with this upcoming event which will introduce a mixture of precipitation types (P-type) across the region. While still several days away…confidence and consistency in the guidance is increasing that some sort of impactful winter storm will occur across SE TX starting as early as Monday afternoon/evening and lasting into Wednesday. Forecasted soundings on the global models show a higher potential for snow/sleet the further north over the area (say north of I-10) with a mixture of freezing rain and sleet to the south. The National Blend of Models (NBM) is trending toward more snow than ice for what that is worth at this range. Given surface temperatures below freezing and possibly well below freezing accumulations of ice/snow look possible (how much and what kind of impacts) will be determined in the coming days.
Best thing about being able to work from home is not having to worry about driving to/from work with all the idiots who haven't a clue how to drive in this stuff.
Worst thing about being able to work from home is that we no longer even get a snow day from work like days of old.
so basically, we don't know but possible snow and winter conditions hilarious
most recent run of the GFS drops 5" of snow on the tine, but also barely has the city below freezing for all of next weekHoustonAg9999 said:
so basically, we don't know but possible snow and winter conditions hilarious
Tom Cardy said:most recent run of the GFS drops 5" of snow on the tine, but also barely has the city below freezing for all of next weekHoustonAg9999 said:
so basically, we don't know but possible snow and winter conditions hilarious
Goldilocks scenario.
which means it'll probably change and make us all sad
I just don't want multiple nights of hard freezes, sub-freezing temps for 3-4 straight days, plants dying, pipes bursting, power outages etc.Tom Cardy said:
which means it'll probably change and make us all sad
Just missing out on snow with some low 30s rain would be a bummer but it's still way better than the scenario above.
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