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167,005 Views | 1283 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by Mostly Foggy Recollection
Serotonin
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 6:31a, 1/13/25
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
ICON joins the Euro and CMC. GFS moving towards them in funneling cold towards Texas but still a bit progressive.

Again, Thursday for me, but trends are towards the colder solution.


Did this reverse overnight with things trending warmer now?
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to Serotonin • 7:10a, 1/13/25
Serotonin said:
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
ICON joins the Euro and CMC. GFS moving towards them in funneling cold towards Texas but still a bit progressive.

Again, Thursday for me, but trends are towards the colder solution.


Did this reverse overnight with things trending warmer now?


No, Euro trended warmer because the storm wasn't there.

If we see a few runs in a row with moderating temps and no precip then we'd call it a trend.

Euro ensemble doesn't agree with its Operational run.
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Ferris Wheel Allstar
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 8:20a, 1/13/25
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
All models are showing a slightly warmer 2021 blast.

Cards are on the table for a snow storm from Austin/SA to CS and north.

Ice storm for Houston and East Texas 1997 style.

I'm not forecasting this…. Yet. But you can see the variables coming together right now.
A+ for you on being one of the 1st to say this was going to happen
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to Ferris Wheel Allstar • 9:01a, 1/13/25
Your professionals at HGX NWS are hedging, as they should, but good to see them address it.

Cady from HGX NWS

Beyond the forecast period, we continue to monitor the potential
for a more sustained push of cold air heading into the
early/middle part of next week. While models have backed off on
some of their more extreme solutions from the previous few
forecast cycles, it is nonetheless a possibility that we could see
subfreezing temperatures prevailing into next week. Still, there
remains quite a lot of uncertainty surrounding how the synoptic
pattern will evolve by the middle of next week (namely, the
magnitude and positioning of surface high pressure) and as such it
is far too early to make a skilled forecast for precise
temperature values at this time.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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11:02a, 1/13/25
Spann is one of the best in the business, even if he is more of a SE focused guy.



GFS found snow for Houston in its 12z operational run after being the warmest the last few runs. Again, its best to analyze the Ensemble runs for each model in this range instead of the Operationals.
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jenn96
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4:01p, 1/13/25
AG
I just realized Monday is a named holiday. We are f*cked.
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 4:03p, 1/13/25
AG
I wonder why everyone else is predicting arctic cold but no precip next week

(I dont know ****)
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gigemJTH12
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4:05p, 1/13/25
AG
just realized he is probably talking about Alabama
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 4:22p, 1/13/25
gigemJTH12 said:
I wonder why everyone else is predicting arctic cold but no precip next week

(I dont know ****)
Predicting precip this far out is a fools game.

We watch ensembles because it gives us many outcomes that can be averaged.
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beerag04
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5:36p, 1/13/25
AG
After living in Birmingham for a couple of years and moving back to Houston, I miss watching Spann during tornado coverage. He is the absolute best tv meteorologist I've ever watched.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to beerag04 • 6:05p, 1/13/25
beerag04 said:
After living in Birmingham for a couple of years and moving back to Houston, I miss watching Spann during tornado coverage. He is the absolute best tv meteorologist I've ever watched.


Absolutely! His coverage of that 2011 Tuscaloosa F4 and April outbreak was really good. No hype and you could tell he was getting emotional when he saw it was going to hit T Town head on.
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Agasaurus Tex
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 6:08p, 1/13/25
AG
Is GFS reliable for cold weather forecasts? I realize this far out forecasts can be sketchy but for tropical storm forecasts one model run may have landfall in Florida and and the next run in Mexico.
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Tom Cardy
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In reply to Agasaurus Tex • 6:12p, 1/13/25
AG
Agasaurus Tex said:
Is GFS reliable for cold weather forecasts? I realize this far out forecasts can be sketchy but for tropical storm forecasts one model run may have landfall in Florida and and the next run in Mexico.

Much like hurricane season, the best ideas come from using ensembles to see the possibilities and look for trends in the long range of 5+ days. Operational/deterministic models (GFS, euro, icon, cmc, etc) are usually better in the mid-short range. Think 5 days and in, but with better accuracy as you get closer. There's another set of models that deal exclusively in short range that have higher resolution and typically are pretty good with precipitation.

For winter specifically, no model is always the "best" for Texas weather. The air masses and related systems that give chances for precipitation are pretty complex and timing varying by a couple of hours can make a big difference.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to Tom Cardy • 7:23p, 1/13/25
Tom Cardy said:
Agasaurus Tex said:
Is GFS reliable for cold weather forecasts? I realize this far out forecasts can be sketchy but for tropical storm forecasts one model run may have landfall in Florida and and the next run in Mexico.

Much like hurricane season, the best ideas come from using ensembles to see the possibilities and look for trends in the long range of 5+ days. Operational/deterministic models (GFS, euro, icon, cmc, etc) are usually better in the mid-short range. Think 5 days and in, but with better accuracy as you get closer. There's another set of models that deal exclusively in short range that have higher resolution and typically are pretty good with precipitation.

For winter specifically, no model is always the "best" for Texas weather. The air masses and related systems that give chances for precipitation are pretty complex and timing varying by a couple of hours can make a big difference.


Well said! That's why I like Thursday, possibly Wednesday as a day to start talking about sensible weather in regards to temps. As for precip, I look at the hi-res models late week to get a good idea of what they want to do.

NAM, HRRR, WRF, RAP (RAP over did it the most) did a pretty decent job with the North Texas snow last week and that was a much more complex set up.

These true Arctic setups are a little easier to sniff out potential winter weather setups and you can tell right away in the mid range and short range if the output is legitimate or not
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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7:36a, 1/14/25
Not much change in terms of cold push. Euro and GFS brought the winter storm back and GFS lost its marbles and drops close to an all timer in SETX.

Again, it means little to me as we are still 6 days away.

NWS may start introducing slight chances for winter precip late today if the models hold through 12z runs.

Edit ** My weather app has introduced 30% chances on Monday for my location in Colorado County.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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8:45a, 1/14/25
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Agz_2003
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 9:20a, 1/14/25
AG
Appreciate your analyses.
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gougler08
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9:50a, 1/14/25
AG
Just getting this added to the watchlist, appreciate the insights!
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gigemJTH12
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9:55a, 1/14/25
AG
I will be staying tunned!
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gigemJTH12
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9:57a, 1/14/25
AG
the apple weather app is showing a snowflake on Wednesday now for Houston
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 9:58a, 1/14/25
AG
gigemJTH12 said:
the apple weather app is showing a snowflake on Wednesday now for Houston
There's snowflakes everywhere these days
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 10:00a, 1/14/25
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
gigemJTH12 said:
the apple weather app is showing a snowflake on Wednesday now for Houston
There's snowflakes everywhere these days
only for 6 more days!

(I kid, I kid)
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 10:00a, 1/14/25
gigemJTH12 said:
I will be staying tunned!


Would have been funnier if they said "stay thoed Houston"
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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10:38a, 1/14/25
12z still has the winter storm for SETX. I'd expect NWS HOU to put something in the forecast soon. It will still be slight chances this far out.
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Snake Farmer
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11:56a, 1/14/25
Wife has returning flight from new England Tuesday. Will be interesting to keep an eye on delays or other issues.
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 12:08p, 1/14/25
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
12z still has the winter storm for SETX. I'd expect NWS HOU to put something in the forecast soon. It will still be slight chances this far out.


Is that for Monday or more toward Wednesday?
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TRIDENT
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In reply to Snake Farmer • 12:45p, 1/14/25
AG
Snake Farmer said:
Wife has returning flight from new England Tuesday. Will be interesting to keep an eye on delays or other issues.
Good luck, whichever way you hope it goes!
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Serotonin
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12:48p, 1/14/25
AG
I am just wondering how a deep freeze might affect the pipes at Splendora High School.
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to TRIDENT • 12:50p, 1/14/25
AG
TRIDENT said:
Snake Farmer said:
Wife has returning flight from new England Tuesday. Will be interesting to keep an eye on delays or other issues.
Good luck, whichever way you hope it goes!
laughed out loud
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coolerguy12
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In reply to Serotonin • 12:55p, 1/14/25
AG
Does that stuff raise or lower the freezing temperature?
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Snake Farmer
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In reply to TRIDENT • 12:56p, 1/14/25
TRIDENT said:
Snake Farmer said:
Wife has returning flight from new England Tuesday. Will be interesting to keep an eye on delays or other issues.
Good luck, whichever way you hope it goes!
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 1:50p, 1/14/25
gigemJTH12 said:
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
12z still has the winter storm for SETX. I'd expect NWS HOU to put something in the forecast soon. It will still be slight chances this far out.


Is that for Monday or more toward Wednesday?
Monday night into Wednesday morning.

Sorry, I just got to our office here in KC and have been traveling.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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2:19p, 1/14/25


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JobSecurity
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2:29p, 1/14/25
AG
MFR will go down in tine weather history if this happens
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BQ_90
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2:29p, 1/14/25
AG
stores this weekend

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