It will be too cold for this totally sane and well-adjusted person to go protest at the inauguration.
*****2025 Houston Weather*****
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Last: 2 days ago by Mostly Foggy Recollection
Could be but right now nearly every model run is showing the same thing and that is rare this far out.
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
All major ensemble suites point towards 20-30 below normal starting the 20th.
Which is what in F?
Highs in the range of 30-40Ag_07 said:Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
All major ensemble suites point towards 20-30 below normal starting the 20th.
Which is what in F?
Lows in the range of 14-24
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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All models are showing a slightly warmer 2021 blast.
Cards are on the table for a snow storm from Austin/SA to CS and north.
Ice storm for Houston and East Texas 1997 style.
I'm not forecasting this…. Yet. But you can see the variables coming together right now.
Cards are on the table for a snow storm from Austin/SA to CS and north.
Ice storm for Houston and East Texas 1997 style.
I'm not forecasting this…. Yet. But you can see the variables coming together right now.
The 1997 ice storm mostly spared Houston iirc. The worst part was from Anahuac thru Lake Charles. Ice downed trees and power lines to the point electric service was out over a week and I-10 was closed with numerous trees on the roadway in Louisiana.
A Houston ice storm could be worse than a hurricane for electrical lines imo.
A Houston ice storm could be worse than a hurricane for electrical lines imo.
I can't speak for Houston, but I was in school during that time. College Station was iced over.
Us Panhandle boys still went out and had fun. We thought it was dumb to cancel the first day of school.
Us Panhandle boys still went out and had fun. We thought it was dumb to cancel the first day of school.
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Euro wants to keep DFW below freezing for 7 days and Houston 3-4 with some areas of Houston viewing area for 5 days.
CPC telling us it's coming
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
CPC telling us it's coming
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
I just remember falling on my ass a couple times trying to leave the dorm, and just trying to get past the pavement onto the grass where it was safe to walk.
Also remember the yankees heading out for class in shorts and Michigan or Ohio tshirts to make a show of "this ain't nuthin'!"
Also remember the yankees heading out for class in shorts and Michigan or Ohio tshirts to make a show of "this ain't nuthin'!"
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Barreling south
Local News started reporting it today
much colder than this last blast if it actually happens.Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
Barreling south
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Euro 12z
DFW - Low single digits, some below zero.
Austin/SA - Mid to upper single digits.
Houston - Upper single digits.
Below freezing all week. Statewide storm to kick it off before the bottom falls out.
DFW - Low single digits, some below zero.
Austin/SA - Mid to upper single digits.
Houston - Upper single digits.
Below freezing all week. Statewide storm to kick it off before the bottom falls out.
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Euro ensembles support the Operational run. Euro was most accurate during the last front. We are within 7 days of this now.
Thanks for the updates. Let me start getting my generator ready.
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As of today, I'd put the likelihood of an anomalous cold outbreak at 90%, meaning fronts that bring extended cold and will tax resources and infrastructure.
I put the likelihood of a record or near record cold outbreak at 20% which would have been 10% this morning.
Years that resemble these latest runs are January 1940, January 1949, January 1985, February 1982 and February 2021. Thanks to NTXW at Storm2k for researching and putting those out there to digest. Those months are a doozy of a cluster.
I put the likelihood of a record or near record cold outbreak at 20% which would have been 10% this morning.
Years that resemble these latest runs are January 1940, January 1949, January 1985, February 1982 and February 2021. Thanks to NTXW at Storm2k for researching and putting those out there to digest. Those months are a doozy of a cluster.
Get your bleach and toilet paper while you still can!
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Very 2021esque on that run with all of the state 35 plus degrees below normal with some 50 below normal.
Are you expecting rain/ice, or just freezing temps?
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AggieT said:
Are you expecting rain/ice, or just freezing temps?
Kind of early to hone in on that. We will get more confidence on Thursday as the models hone in on potential coastal lows and NW flow disturbances.
Euro had the state covered in snow and ice much like 2021 but that storm is 8 days away. No confidence yet.
eh, other ops and ensembles not nearly as bullish right now, even the canadian which is almost always more aggressive with cold. The big pink maps are exciting but I expect this to moderate between now and next week
edit: it's probably gonna be pretty cold next week for at least a few days, but that euro run that's going to show up all over social media for the next day is an anomaly currently
edit: it's probably gonna be pretty cold next week for at least a few days, but that euro run that's going to show up all over social media for the next day is an anomaly currently
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Tom Cardy said:
eh, other ops and ensembles not nearly as bullish right now, even the canadian which is almost always more aggressive with cold. The big pink maps are exciting but I expect this to moderate between now and next week
They are all bullish on a well below normal next week, it's just the severity of it. Euro is the coldest.
Canadian is 25-30 below normal. GFS in the same ballpark. Those 35-50 below hinges on if that storm pans out.
Space City weather is not predicting what you're predicting, they do say it will be cold for the marathon…it will be interesting if they change their forecast over the next few days.
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MelvinUdall said:
Space City weather is not predicting what you're predicting, they do say it will be cold for the marathon…it will be interesting if they change their forecast over the next few days.
I haven't predicted anything yet.
I'm giving you trends. I am fairly confident in the EPO forecast which would give us cross polar flow.
A normal "Arctic" front for us in January would put us 15-20 below average. With the given EPO forecast across the ensemble packages, I don't believe this will be a run of the mill January front.
And Space City is wise not to sound any alarm bells. That's why I've mentioned this Thursday as a day to look forward to as that is when we get within the time frame for the hi res models to start digesting the front. That's when you can look at timing and sniff out any potential winter weather. Space City didn't start talking about 2021 until we got within 5 days. That would be Wednesday of this week.
From now until then you watch trends with the ensembles. They continually have become colder over the last 48 hours.
Oh, I wasn't saying you were predicting anything, I like reading your posts…I was just mentioning the post by Space City Weather and their thoughts..sorry for any confusion.
I'm not disagreeing that it's going to be cold, but most people don't even think about temps in terms of anomaly. 30 below normal sounds scary, but for the Houston area that's like 28 degrees and represents p10 outcome on the 12z GEFS today.
Again, I'm not here to say that you or anyone else is wrong. These fantasy runs are fun for people who are into weather and like watching the possibilities, but the average person often doesn't even know where to look to start to understand the nuance. I just like to make sure that things are contextualized correctly.
Again, I'm not here to say that you or anyone else is wrong. These fantasy runs are fun for people who are into weather and like watching the possibilities, but the average person often doesn't even know where to look to start to understand the nuance. I just like to make sure that things are contextualized correctly.
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Tom Cardy said:
I'm not disagreeing that it's going to be cold, but most people don't even think about temps in terms of anomaly. 30 below normal sounds scary, but for the Houston area that's like 28 degrees and represents p10 outcome on the 12z GEFS today.
Again, I'm not here to say that you or anyone else is wrong. These fantasy runs are fun for people who are into weather and like watching the possibilities, but the average person often doesn't even know where to look to start to understand the nuance. I just like to make sure that things are contextualized correctly.
That's a fair post.
Euro and GFS starting to show a chance of wintry precip early next week. Something to watch.
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Climate prediction center is becoming more bullish.
Leave Hobby MLK for Steamboat and connect in Dallas. Hopefully that flight doesn't get jacked up.
I leave for Florida that Tuesday.
This looks fun.
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ICON joins the Euro and CMC. GFS moving towards them in funneling cold towards Texas but still a bit progressive.
Again, Thursday for me, but trends are towards the colder solution.
Again, Thursday for me, but trends are towards the colder solution.
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