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167,065 Views | 1283 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by Mostly Foggy Recollection
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 9:57p, 1/5/25
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
With all of that said, I do think there's an outside shot for the far western and northern HGX viewing areas (Colorado County to Navasota and north and west) to get in on the wintry mix this week. Houston will not.



Short range NAM model agrees.

Ice from Weimar through the NW and Northern Houston viewing counties
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CAR96
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10:58p, 1/5/25
AG
Can we be specific about those counties?

What might you expect for Waco, Tx Thursday-Saturday?
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to CAR96 • 6:43a, 1/6/25
CAR96 said:
Can we be specific about those counties?

What might you expect for Waco, Tx Thursday-Saturday?


Wednesday night through Friday morning looks dicey in Waco. My guess, right now… A little mixed bag starting out with a transition to snow. Warms up above freezing Friday but not much IMO.
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jbanda
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7:30a, 1/6/25
AG
Thursday looks to have a high of 41F and rain all day. It's so hard to get out of bed on days like that.
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Serotonin
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 9:51a, 1/6/25
AG
Quote:
Now, severity variables matter too. The reason Houston and most of southern Texas is going to escape Snow and ice this go around is due to the PNA (Pacific North-American pattern) and lack of snowpack to our north.... this is why I mentioned 'step down' earlier. This first system is laying a huge snow pack down, and down into Oklahoma and potentially the Hill country to DFW. This is important for cold, because the Arctic fronts can't moderate if there is snow pack involved. This first one moderated.
Is this what happened back in 2021?

  • warm December
  • strong arctic front in January that brought snow as far south as College Station, Brenham, etc but didn't get down into Houston
  • strong arctic front in February that was able to easily roll much further south and blasted Houston
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Ag_07
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10:12a, 1/6/25
AG
Is there really a such thing as a snow pack in Texas much less in the hill country?

Yeah parts of the state get snow but snow pack and one significant enough to alter mid-range climate forecasts?
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Ragoo
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In reply to Ag_07 • 10:13a, 1/6/25
AG
Ag_07 said:
Is there really a such thing as a snow pack in Texas much less in the hill country?

Yeah parts of the state get snow but snow pack and one significant enough to alter mid-range climate forecasts?
he probably means through Kansas
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Ragoo
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10:16a, 1/6/25
AG
With more snow in the central plains it would keep the air from warming as it moves south - ie; in contact with warm earth

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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to Ag_07 • 10:19a, 1/6/25
Ag_07 said:
Is there really a such thing as a snow pack in Texas much less in the hill country?

Yeah parts of the state get snow but snow pack and one significant enough to alter mid-range climate forecasts?
It matters if the next big front would cross over that area while there still may be some on the ground. See 2021.

Otherwise, no, due to melt. But yeah, I expect the Kansas and northern OK snowpack to stick around a while.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to Serotonin • 10:20a, 1/6/25
Serotonin said:
Quote:
Now, severity variables matter too. The reason Houston and most of southern Texas is going to escape Snow and ice this go around is due to the PNA (Pacific North-American pattern) and lack of snowpack to our north.... this is why I mentioned 'step down' earlier. This first system is laying a huge snow pack down, and down into Oklahoma and potentially the Hill country to DFW. This is important for cold, because the Arctic fronts can't moderate if there is snow pack involved. This first one moderated.
Is this what happened back in 2021?

  • warm December
  • strong arctic front in January that brought snow as far south as College Station, Brenham, etc but didn't get down into Houston
  • strong arctic front in February that was able to easily roll much further south and blasted Houston
It's similar.
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El Gallo Blanco
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In reply to Charlie Murphy • 11:31a, 1/6/25
Charlie Murphy said:
Crazy, I've been saying the exact same thing.
Same, although I was kind of hoping he would address the trigometric potential for a Harris-Dopple kind of event (rare). But with a TFI of 101 and a moisture suplexor factor of 2.4, not to mention the sheer wind speeds nearing the apex of the initial phase of pressure collapse, it could just be me being a bit paranoid.
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Cromagnum
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12:49p, 1/6/25
AG
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Cromagnum
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6:03p, 1/6/25
AG
When TF did 30 degrees become dangerous cold?

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TX04Aggie
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6:06p, 1/6/25
AG
Sooooooo dramatic. Today was nice outside in the sun!
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Cromagnum
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In reply to TX04Aggie • 6:10p, 1/6/25
AG
TX04Aggie said:
Sooooooo dramatic. Today was nice outside in the sun!


That's what in saying. It was 25 when I left my house but it was nice all day.
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Marauder Blue 6
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In reply to Cromagnum • 6:17p, 1/6/25
AG
When people die.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/metro-bus-stop-death-cold-weather/285-63c346c5-7cb3-42ca-88e4-4a866ea71152
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TX04Aggie
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In reply to Marauder Blue 6 • 6:20p, 1/6/25
AG
Hmmm hasnt released autopsy results…
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Cromagnum
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In reply to Marauder Blue 6 • 6:36p, 1/6/25
AG
Marauder Blue 6 said:
When people die.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/metro-bus-stop-death-cold-weather/285-63c346c5-7cb3-42ca-88e4-4a866ea71152


You don't die from a few hours of barely freezing weather without comorbidities.
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The Sun
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7:15p, 1/6/25
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BBRex
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9:15p, 1/6/25
AG
It's to keep people from being dumb. I'll never forget driving to work in a not-so-great part of town a few years ago in weather almost identical to this morning (at or below freezing with wind) and seeing some elementary school-aged girl in a T-shirt and jeans shivering at a bus stop. Her parents or guardians should have been flogged.
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Cromagnum
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8:23a, 1/7/25
AG
We have gotten so soft. Lmao.

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bigjag19
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8:26a, 1/7/25
AG
Most parent in Pasadena thrilled to get them back at school.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to Cromagnum • 8:48a, 1/7/25
Cromagnum said:
We have gotten so soft. Lmao.



It does suck being surrounded by this constant stupidity and weakness these days.

Lucky for me, I only get to experience it when I go into the office. Big cities are the big suck today.
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CDUB98
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8:53a, 1/7/25
AG
Quote:
Big cities are the big suck today.
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Jbob04
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 9:30a, 1/7/25
AG
I miss your weather posts from the websider board back when it was on Texags. Glad I found you posting over here. I've been reading on storm2k in the meantime.
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Ferris Wheel Allstar
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9:34a, 1/7/25
AG
San Antonio has some hard hitting news for the cold front too

https://www.kens5.com/article/weather/whataburger-cups-protect-pipes-texas-freeze-2025-true-or-false/269-478f07ea-8476-4f2b-8e5e-5372a5ba64cd

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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to Jbob04 • 10:02a, 1/7/25
Jbob04 said:
I miss your weather posts from the websider board back when it was on Texags. Glad I found you posting over here. I've been reading on storm2k in the meantime.


S2K has some great minds over there. Ntxw is a winter weather pattern recognizing savant.
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BQ04
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In reply to Ferris Wheel Allstar • 11:20a, 1/7/25
AG
Ferris Wheel Allstar said:
San Antonio has some hard hitting news for the cold front too

https://www.kens5.com/article/weather/whataburger-cups-protect-pipes-texas-freeze-2025-true-or-false/269-478f07ea-8476-4f2b-8e5e-5372a5ba64cd

Thats the most SA thing I've seen in a while!!
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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10:20p, 1/7/25
This is what I was referring to later this month. PNA moves neutral and focuses direct Arctic air onto us. All 3 majors showing it. Notice the oranges and yellows in the SE. That holds up any disturbances coming out of the NW flow into Texas, and keeps them from moving off to the East. That would be how you get Winter weather down here. The GFS and CMC ensemble package are the two that could really deliver a big storm in SETX. The Euro could too but probably a bit more progressive.

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Premium
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8:11p, 1/8/25
AG
Anyone's work in the Houston area working from home tomorrow if that's a possibility?
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jbanda
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In reply to Premium • 8:13p, 1/8/25
AG
Live in Richmond/Katy area. Work in Mont Belvieu. I was planning on working from home but 2 in the field meetings were called. I made sure they were at 7 and 8am. I'll probably head back after.
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Mega Lops
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In reply to Premium • 8:15p, 1/8/25
AG
Premium said:
Anyone's work in the Houston area working from home tomorrow if that's a possibility?
choices, choices… right, Brenda?!

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Sea Speed
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8:33p, 1/8/25
AG
My kids private school has let them wear jeans every day this week, so that's a plus. Makes life easier.
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TXAG 05
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In reply to Premium • 9:18p, 1/8/25
AG
Premium said:
Anyone's work in the Houston area working from home tomorrow if that's a possibility?


For what? Can't drive in the rain?
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CDUB98
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In reply to Premium • 9:24p, 1/8/25
AG
Premium said:
Anyone's work in the Houston area working from home tomorrow if that's a possibility?


It's just rain, Karen.
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