I've loved the way the Astros are navigating the transition to a sustainable financial position. They should now have the ability to field a good team for a while and are a solid tier 2 team (below tier 1 of Dodgers and Mets). Even without Tucker the WS odds are #6 on ESPNBet and #7 on Draftkings.

Stros are clear favorites in the AL West right now and have a good track to get a top 2 seed and a bye; that's why I think it's pretty critical to re-sign Bregman and play Parades at 1B. If Bregman walks then things are much tighter in the West.

Having said that, I think the Astros offer to Bregman is more than fair. But it does look like Boras might be able to pry a larger deal from the Mets, Red Sox, or someone else.

His decline has begun on the offensive side, so it's a deal that could look really bad in 2-3 years for one of those teams.

Offensive WAR:
2022 - 5.1
2023 - 4.3
2024 - 3.5

OPS+:
2022 - 136
2023 - 122
2024 - 118

He is clearly declining relative to the league, and that's even with the added motivation of a contract year. If he were a free agent from another team there's no way I'd want the Astros to touch him.

But given his contributions and the fact that the Astros can compete right now I hope they can find a way to get him back.

i'm not counting bregman out yet. they can't be dumb enough to trade tucker without being confident that deal can be done. but, this is boras so it does make me nervous.