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What are the real odds that She Jack is our next mayor?

14,728 Views | 119 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by BQ_90
Ciboag96
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I mean, seriously. How ****ing low can we even go?
plowboy1065
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Ciboag96 said:

I mean, seriously. How ****ing low can we even go?

Just moved to Houston I see
bigjag19
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Ciboag96 said:

I mean, seriously. How ****ing low can we even go?


Ask Chicago.
T for Texas
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The sun rising in the morning has less odds. The corrupt dimwits do what they want.
BigTex83
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I am moving out of Houston soon after growing up here. I regret I will not get an opportunity to vote against her but after having her as my Congressional representative for many years I'm glad I won't have to worry about her being mayor. Neither her or Whitmire are a good candidate and indicative how much of a downward spiral Houston and Harris County are in.
Marvin_Zindler
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A lot more likely than a lot of people realize, is my crystal ball thinking. A large field only helps her.

I hope I'm dead wrong and get mocked relentlessly. But I'm not so sure given Harris County's current voting demographics.
JSKolache
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97%
cajunaggie08
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She still has to get over 50% to avoid a runoff. I dont think 50% of Houston is voting for her....I hope
AlaskanAg99
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The majority of Republicans live in unincorporated HC. They cannot vote for mayor. So most likely if she doesn't have a serious D challenger, she's in.

Meanwhile the County Commissioners are voted in by all of Hartis County so it will continue to be pulled Blue.
Coog97
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AlaskanAg99 said:

The majority of Republicans live in unincorporated HC. They cannot vote for mayor. So most likely if she doesn't have a serious D challenger, she's in.

Meanwhile the County Commissioners are voted in by all of Hartis County so it will continue to be pulled Blue.


She's not beating John Whitmire.
“Things weren’t gentle and politically correct in those days. We weren’t candy asses. Okay?”
-Frank Borman

“Who are you to doubt El Dandy? ‘Cause this guy’s a serious professional.”
-Bret Hart
Ryan the Temp
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cajunaggie08 said:

She still has to get over 50% to avoid a runoff. I dont think 50% of Houston is voting for her....I hope
A large field help her make a runoff, but in a head-to-head matchup against only one candidate, her chances diminish rapidly. She cannot win without Republican crossover vote, which she will not get.
Ryan the Temp
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Meanwhile the County Commissioners are voted in by all of Hartis County so it will continue to be pulled Blue.
Gerrymandering of commissioner precincts.

You can't gerrymander a citywide race. The mere fact that we have Republican at-large Council members is a demonstration of Republican voting strength in Houston.
NoahAg
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Ryan the Temp said:

cajunaggie08 said:

She still has to get over 50% to avoid a runoff. I dont think 50% of Houston is voting for her....I hope
A large field help her make a runoff, but in a head-to-head matchup against only one candidate, her chances diminish rapidly. She cannot win without Republican crossover vote, which she will not get.
You sure about that? So Turner won with Rep crossover vote?

Dora was REelected as County Judge. This City and County are so freaking lost. She'll win. Easily.
cajunaggie08
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Ryan the Temp said:

cajunaggie08 said:

She still has to get over 50% to avoid a runoff. I dont think 50% of Houston is voting for her....I hope
A large field help her make a runoff, but in a head-to-head matchup against only one candidate, her chances diminish rapidly. She cannot win without Republican crossover vote, which she will not get.
Exactly. I would think all Houston republicans would be able to hold their nose and vote for a Democrat politician running against SJL in the runoff. That would then require just a small percentage of likely Dem voters to vote against her too and then there is no way she can win the runoff. SJL is not popular with Democratic Party voters outside of her gerrymandered district.
cajunaggie08
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NoahAg said:

Ryan the Temp said:

cajunaggie08 said:

She still has to get over 50% to avoid a runoff. I dont think 50% of Houston is voting for her....I hope
A large field help her make a runoff, but in a head-to-head matchup against only one candidate, her chances diminish rapidly. She cannot win without Republican crossover vote, which she will not get.
You sure about that? So Turner won with Rep crossover vote?

Dora was REelected as County Judge. This City and County are so freaking lost. She'll win. Easily.
Both of your examples were Democrat vs Republican elections. Yes I know Buzbee isn't technically a republican, but he ran like he was one for that election. I dont get the sense that Houston democrats are united behind SJL.
Milwaukees Best Light
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r/houston hates her and that is a pretty good liberal barometer.
Chef Elko
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Milwaukees Best Light said:

r/houston hates her and that is a pretty good liberal barometer.
Barf. I had to stop following that delusional subreddit. I'm shocked they are strongly against her.
I Am A Critic
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This thread is a good example of the defeatist attitude that keeps Democrats in positions of power. I'll be glad when the GOP get it's head of it's ass and focuses on looking forward and a winning strategy versus the bellyaching and dwelling on the past. I hate Ds but they know how to play a better game.
Username checks out.
Waltonloads08
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Coog97 said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

The majority of Republicans live in unincorporated HC. They cannot vote for mayor. So most likely if she doesn't have a serious D challenger, she's in.

Meanwhile the County Commissioners are voted in by all of Hartis County so it will continue to be pulled Blue.


She's not beating John Whitmire.


1. NYC- black male dem
2. Los Angeles- black female dem
3. Chicago- black male dem (previously black female)
4. Houston- black male dem

I am curious what makes you think this changes anytime soon?

Ryan the Temp
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Waltonloads08 said:


I am curious what makes you think this changes anytime soon?
SJL's known unlikability. None of those other mayors have SJL-level of negatives.
NoahAg
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cajunaggie08 said:

NoahAg said:

Ryan the Temp said:

cajunaggie08 said:

She still has to get over 50% to avoid a runoff. I dont think 50% of Houston is voting for her....I hope
A large field help her make a runoff, but in a head-to-head matchup against only one candidate, her chances diminish rapidly. She cannot win without Republican crossover vote, which she will not get.
You sure about that? So Turner won with Rep crossover vote?

Dora was REelected as County Judge. This City and County are so freaking lost. She'll win. Easily.
Both of your examples were Democrat vs Republican elections. Yes I know Buzbee isn't technically a republican, but he ran like he was one for that election. I dont get the sense that Houston democrats are united behind SJL.
Ah that makes sense. Dem v dem and she probably loses.
AlaskanAg99
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Ryan the Temp said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

Meanwhile the County Commissioners are voted in by all of Hartis County so it will continue to be pulled Blue.
Gerrymandering of commissioner precincts.

You can't gerrymander a citywide race. The mere fact that we have Republican at-large Council members is a demonstration of Republican voting strength in Houston.


That only cost Cagle his position, but it doesn't explain Hildago if you think her county wide race had a majority Republican vote.
Ryan the Temp
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Quote:

doesn't explain Hildago if you think her county wide race had a majority Republican vote.
You're right. Only people in the City of Houston could vote for County Judge, so it's a definite, 100% identical comparison.
Bondag
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Ryan the Temp said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

Meanwhile the County Commissioners are voted in by all of Hartis County so it will continue to be pulled Blue.
Gerrymandering of commissioner precincts.

You can't gerrymander a citywide race. The mere fact that we have Republican at-large Council members is a demonstration of Republican voting strength in Houston.


That only cost Cagle his position, but it doesn't explain Hildago if you think her county wide race had a majority Republican vote.


Not suspicious at all that predominantly republican areas did not open on time or ran out of supplies.

Is Hidalgo still in her vacation?
sts7049
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Bondag said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

Ryan the Temp said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

Meanwhile the County Commissioners are voted in by all of Hartis County so it will continue to be pulled Blue.
Gerrymandering of commissioner precincts.

You can't gerrymander a citywide race. The mere fact that we have Republican at-large Council members is a demonstration of Republican voting strength in Houston.


That only cost Cagle his position, but it doesn't explain Hildago if you think her county wide race had a majority Republican vote.


Not suspicious at all that predominantly republican areas did not open on time or ran out of supplies.

Is Hidalgo still in her vacation?


cajunaggie08
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NoahAg said:

cajunaggie08 said:

NoahAg said:

Ryan the Temp said:

cajunaggie08 said:

She still has to get over 50% to avoid a runoff. I dont think 50% of Houston is voting for her....I hope
A large field help her make a runoff, but in a head-to-head matchup against only one candidate, her chances diminish rapidly. She cannot win without Republican crossover vote, which she will not get.
You sure about that? So Turner won with Rep crossover vote?

Dora was REelected as County Judge. This City and County are so freaking lost. She'll win. Easily.
Both of your examples were Democrat vs Republican elections. Yes I know Buzbee isn't technically a republican, but he ran like he was one for that election. I dont get the sense that Houston democrats are united behind SJL.
Ah that makes sense. Dem v dem and she probably loses.
Now if it winds up being SJL vs MJ Kahn in the runoff, that one will devolve into team D vs team R and we all find out how popular or unpopular SJL is with Houston Democrat voters that arent black.
schmellba99
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Whomever Rodney Ellis puts his weight behind will be the annointed one.

My bet is Shejack, because he will likely get the most grift with her in city hall.
bularry
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NoahAg said:

Ryan the Temp said:

cajunaggie08 said:

She still has to get over 50% to avoid a runoff. I dont think 50% of Houston is voting for her....I hope
A large field help her make a runoff, but in a head-to-head matchup against only one candidate, her chances diminish rapidly. She cannot win without Republican crossover vote, which she will not get.
You sure about that? So Turner won with Rep crossover vote?

Dora was REelected as County Judge. This City and County are so freaking lost. She'll win. Easily.
I don't think so.
Coog97
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schmellba99 said:

Whomever Rodney Ellis puts his weight behind will be the annointed one.

My bet is Shejack, because he will likely get the most grift with her in city hall.
Whitmire's machine is much, much bigger than yappin' Rodney's...

“Things weren’t gentle and politically correct in those days. We weren’t candy asses. Okay?”
-Frank Borman

“Who are you to doubt El Dandy? ‘Cause this guy’s a serious professional.”
-Bret Hart
Diggity
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Dimebag Darrell
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It's funny because people think it's bad in Houston now. Just wait.
Milwaukees Best Light
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When the exodus begins, go north. Galveston county is full.
Marvin_Zindler
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I had no idea Lee P. Brown was still alive .
Psycho Bunny
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Votes have already been counted, Shelia Jackson Lee will be Houston's next mayor. Look for a mass exodus of HPD and HFD officers and firefighters. Good luck Houston, may the odds ever be in your favor
Diggity
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Marvin_Zindler said:

I had no idea Lee P. Brown was still alive .
I, for one, care deeply about "outta town Lee Brown's" pick for mayor
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