Maybe try calling a therapist or counselor?aggietony2010 said:
Nearby donut shop is "temporarily closed" due to coronavirus. We'd been stopping by about once a week because it was close enough to walk and if I don't do something with my 3 kids my wife and I will kill each other.
I'd be shocked if they reopened.
If this country persists with these shut downs, the economic impact will result in more deaths than the virus.Boo Weekley said:A Great Depression 2.0, which is a very real possibility if we shut down for many more weeks, is the worst possible scenario for everyone...and their offspring. Would be an absolute nightmare for almost everyone and we'd likely never be the same as a country.jh0400 said:
It's not a linear problem. Half measures won't mitigate half the impact. I'm not arguing that the impact of this won't be bad for a lot of businesses. There is no precedent for a economic slowdown that disproportionately affects service-oriented businesses. There is no easy answer here, and I'm glad I'm not the person who has to make the ultimate call on this.
07ag said:Maybe try calling a therapist or counselor?aggietony2010 said:
Nearby donut shop is "temporarily closed" due to coronavirus. We'd been stopping by about once a week because it was close enough to walk and if I don't do something with my 3 kids my wife and I will kill each other.
I'd be shocked if they reopened.
I'm fat, but I can handle the lack of donuts without professional help
or just spiking their orange juice with vodka?
you can only do that so many times before you have 2 alcoholics in diapers and one that will need rehab before starting kindergarten next fall
Quote:
In 1922, a pair of sociologists at New York's Columbia University were poring over 50 years of US economic and mortality data, when they noticed a surprising result. Lean times in the country's history didn't correspond with more deaths, as they expected. In fact, the opposite was true. More people babies included died when the economy prospered
Quote:
Even numbers from the global financial crisis of the late 2000s follow suit. Jos Tapia Granados, a health economist at Drexel University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, has calculated that death rates in Europe dropped faster during this downturn, known as the Great Recession, than before the crisis hit3. The trend held even in his birth country of Spain4, where unemployment topped 20%.
The scary part is just how many americans dont realize they have pre-existing conditions that put them at risk of getting hit hard by COVID-19. Does every asthmatic person need to work from home and avoid coming in contact with roommates/family members? My kids go to a petri dish called pre-school. Do I as an asthmatic person avoid my kids until this is gone? Do i keep my kids from going to school at all?Boo Weekley said:A Great Depression 2.0, which is a very real possibility if we shut down for many more weeks, is the worst possible scenario for everyone...and their offspring. Would be an absolute nightmare for almost everyone and we'd likely never be the same as a country.jh0400 said:
It's not a linear problem. Half measures won't mitigate half the impact. I'm not arguing that the impact of this won't be bad for a lot of businesses. There is no precedent for a economic slowdown that disproportionately affects service-oriented businesses. There is no easy answer here, and I'm glad I'm not the person who has to make the ultimate call on this.
How many millions have already filed for unemployment?
At some point, very soon, we need to say "we've done out part, now it's time for elderly and ill to be very careful and safe while the rest of us keep this country from f***ing collapsing".
They don't think that far into it. They are only thinking so far as "We don't stay in or shut down business for the flu, so we shouldn't for this".CoachRTM said:
For the record, I assume most of the "it's just the flu" crowd is actually the "it's just the flu but without a vaccine or herd immunity" crowd.
This whole thing would probably be going down the same way with the flu if we didn't have a vaccine or herd immunity.
But maybe I'm giving them too much credit.
This was information I came upon trying to dispute people saying recession wouldn't cause more deaths than CV. It's was pretty surprising, but it does make some sense. When humans focus most of their time on survival, getting them and their family's basic needs met they seem to come up with far less ways to kill themselves.jh0400 said:
Data from past recessions actually shows that mortality rates decline during economic downturns.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0Quote:
In 1922, a pair of sociologists at New York's Columbia University were poring over 50 years of US economic and mortality data, when they noticed a surprising result. Lean times in the country's history didn't correspond with more deaths, as they expected. In fact, the opposite was true. More people babies included died when the economy prosperedQuote:
Even numbers from the global financial crisis of the late 2000s follow suit. Jos Tapia Granados, a health economist at Drexel University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, has calculated that death rates in Europe dropped faster during this downturn, known as the Great Recession, than before the crisis hit3. The trend held even in his birth country of Spain4, where unemployment topped 20%.
We can all agree that this sucks and the effect on the economy is unprecedented. However the idea that the economic effects of the virus are more deadly than the virus itself is unfounded.
In other countries, especially 3rd world ones, yeah, they would be screwed for a while. But they are also going to be pretty screwed with the CV.IrishTxAggie said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/economic-shutdown-could-kill-coronavirus-experts-warn/
unfounded every heard of the great depression? How many deaths will happen because of this? What will be the average of age of those deaths?jh0400 said:
Data from past recessions actually shows that mortality rates decline during economic downturns.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0Quote:
In 1922, a pair of sociologists at New York's Columbia University were poring over 50 years of US economic and mortality data, when they noticed a surprising result. Lean times in the country's history didn't correspond with more deaths, as they expected. In fact, the opposite was true. More people babies included died when the economy prosperedQuote:
Even numbers from the global financial crisis of the late 2000s follow suit. Jos Tapia Granados, a health economist at Drexel University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, has calculated that death rates in Europe dropped faster during this downturn, known as the Great Recession, than before the crisis hit3. The trend held even in his birth country of Spain4, where unemployment topped 20%.
We can all agree that this sucks and the effect on the economy is unprecedented. However the idea that the economic effects of the virus are more deadly than the virus itself is unfounded.
it's in the mid-60's in Ecuador right now, no?Diggity said:
Ecuador is getting their ass kicked right now. It's a tiny country so nobody writes about it but the (already crappy) hospital systems are overloaded.
I was surprised because of the warm environment but that doesn't seem to matter as much as we thought. Getting these people to socially distance is also a problem as you might imagine.
Quote:
About a decade later, data from the Great Depression, which hobbled the US economy for much of the 1930s, pointed to a similar conclusion2. "After several years of severe economic stress, the gross death rate has attained the lowest level on record," wrote Edgar Sydenstricker, a social epidemiologist with the US Public Health Service, in 1933.
Proposition Joe said:
This idea that if we go a few more weeks of this that the entire economy may collapse is typically being put forth by those looking at their 401k and/or who are feeling the pinch in their specific industry.
Yes many people's portfolios will be hit hard. Yes many people will lose their jobs. Yes many people will have to adjust their lifestyle.
But we were just in one of the most thriving economic times in our history -- the margin between "I can't afford the mortgage on our lake house" and "great depression level hurt" is more than a few weeks.
cone said:
it's the secondary and tertiary effects of the severe and prolonged demand shock that could collapse things
everything is leveraged against everything else
our recent prosperity is largely a bet on ourselves to keep working and consuming
Well said. This is THE issue right here.cone said:
it's the secondary and tertiary effects of the severe and prolonged demand shock that could collapse things
everything is leveraged against everything else
our recent prosperity is largely a bet on ourselves to keep working and consuming
I've followed a similar career path, except I've been able to hang on to my company through 4 (or more) layoff rounds.TXTransplant said:
I may be very well sitting in an ivory tower, since I've never worked in the restaurant or service industry. I went to college straight out of high school, got an engineering degree and then a graduate degree, and have been working in "professional" jobs ever since. Despite my education, I have been unemployed and forced to reinvent my career...twice.
But count me in the camp of those who are not ready to concede that this is going to cause an economic implosion on the scale of The Great Depression.
Again, this will probably sound obnoxious to some people, but what does it say about our economy if it implodes because we can't eat out at restaurants and get our hair and nails done as often as we want?
I've wondered for a while if our economy isn't too dependent on industries of "convenience" that are propped up entirely by discretionary spending. When people can make a living picking up other people's dog's poop or being an "influencer" on Instagram, you've got to wonder what that says about the "skills" we value as a society. I'm amazed that a restaurant that sells nothing but chicken salad can actually be profitable.
I'd be worried if chemical plants and refineries were shutting down (noted that the major auto manufacturers have halted production - that is serious). I'm actually just as worried about the price of oil right now as I am about the virus.
Will retail suffer? Of course. But retail was struggling well before this because of e-commerce.
Will travel suffer? Of course. But, travel for individuals is a luxury not a necessity.
I certainly don't like seeing my net worth take a 10-20% dive, but I also realistically know that that's the risk that ALWAYS lurks around the corner. Nothing is guaranteed. Our economy isn't bound by the second law of thermodynamics.
Maybe this is a good time for our whole country to take a long hard look at our wants vs. our needs.
People on these boards talk all the time about how certain sectors - like the government and higher education - have become too bloated and need a reality check. Maybe that applies to other industries, too.
