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High speed rail from HTine to Dallas

26,045 Views | 183 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by JJxvi
HerschelwoodHardhead
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In reply to CDUB98 • 9:36a, 9/22/16
AG
I'm not a socialist, nor am I a conservative.

However, I am an Engineer and realize there is a real problem facing Houston in the next 25 years unless we get serious about transportation and traffic. Obviously it will cost money, but so do the massive highway systems we continue to build that aren't solving the problem.

The solution is a multi-modal system that will cost Billions of dollars, but every year we wait it only gets more expensive. We are only a few years away from the kind of traffic that plagues Los Angeles.

But I'll stop with this topic as it was supposed to be about High Speed Rail. As for that in Texas, I see pros and cons but I'm not convinced of either side. I'd love to see one of the proposals that these investors are pushing. And if its legitimate, I hope that local crony capitalist politicians don't kill it.
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P.H. Dexippus
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10:54a, 9/22/16
AG
How many of those 50k riders on the redline pay their fare? Do those fares cover the fixed and variable costs? Those are the questions of success or failure you should be asking.

High speed rail cost per mile estimates vary from $50-$200 million just to build. That's a conservative estimate of $22.5 billion to build the line between Houston and Dallas. If you set that money aside earning 1.75% interest, you could pay for every current Southwest passenger to fly between Houston and Dallas plus an Uber ride to and from the airport, and never touch the principal. What a boondoggle high-speed rail is.
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agracer
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In reply to HerschelwoodHardhead • 12:22p, 9/22/16
AG
quote:
I disagree about it being "an abject failure". I think this is something that has been parrot-ed so many times that people just believe its true.

I just looked up ridership numbers for the Redline (main street line) on Metro's website for the month of July:
2016 Daily Ridership for July - 51,333 riders
2015 Daily Ridership for July - 48,512 riders
Percentage increase - 6%

I didn't bother doing more historical trends, but the I think the idea of getting 50k cars off of main street probably makes a big difference in traffic patterns.

Also, I live in the area and see the train packed every workday. There's a myth that its empty and inhabited by homeless tent camps, and its completely untrue.

Metro has been shown to lie about ridership numbers (as pointed out above). And the cost of the rail line, and continued maintenance exceeds ticket sales to ride the train. That's a failure, not a success.
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ItsA&InotA&M
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1:52p, 9/22/16
Post removed:
by user
In reply to The Wonderer • 2:13p, 9/22/16
Texan1976
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In reply to David_Puddy • 3:02p, 9/22/16
quote:
It's all private funding
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Jaydoug
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In reply to Texan1976 • 4:02p, 9/22/16
AG
quote:
quote:
It's all private funding


Hmmmmm. We need to check the LLCs of all the State officials working on this project to see how much land betwixt Houston and Dallas they have purchased. That'll tell us if this is real or going the way of the Tomball Dinosaur Theme Park.
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Scientific
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4:30p, 9/22/16
AG
I've always asked people who think this is a good idea, how often do they actually travel to Dallas?

NO to Houston would be a pipe dream, but would make more sense.
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spider96
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In reply to HerschelwoodHardhead • 4:40p, 9/22/16
AG
quote:
I disagree about it being "an abject failure". I think this is something that has been parrot-ed so many times that people just believe its true.

I just looked up ridership numbers for the Redline (main street line) on Metro's website for the month of July:
2016 Daily Ridership for July - 51,333 riders
2015 Daily Ridership for July - 48,512 riders
Percentage increase - 6%

I didn't bother doing more historical trends, but the I think the idea of getting 50k cars off of main street probably makes a big difference in traffic patterns.

Also, I live in the area and see the train packed every workday. There's a myth that its empty and inhabited by homeless tent camps, and its completely untrue.



How much extra in taxes are you willing to pay per car to get traffic flowing better? That is the question you should be asking yourself.
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The Wonderer
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In reply to spider96 • 4:49p, 9/22/16
AG
quote:
quote:
I disagree about it being "an abject failure". I think this is something that has been parrot-ed so many times that people just believe its true.

I just looked up ridership numbers for the Redline (main street line) on Metro's website for the month of July:
2016 Daily Ridership for July - 51,333 riders
2015 Daily Ridership for July - 48,512 riders
Percentage increase - 6%

I didn't bother doing more historical trends, but the I think the idea of getting 50k cars off of main street probably makes a big difference in traffic patterns.

Also, I live in the area and see the train packed every workday. There's a myth that its empty and inhabited by homeless tent camps, and its completely untrue.



How much extra in taxes are you willing to pay per car to get traffic flowing better? That is the question you should be asking yourself.
I pay tolls on BW8 and GP...best money one can spend to get around certain hell holes.
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Waltonloads08
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5:24p, 9/22/16
AG
1. Make HOV and some inner loop lanes dedicated bus lanes (like the stupid downtown bike lanes).

2. Buy a ****load of nice busses and run them.

3. Hire cops to enforce fares and kick off the freeloaders and bums.

You'll beat the pants off fixed rail.

Win.
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agnerd
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In reply to P.H. Dexippus • 9:55a, 9/23/16
AG
quote:
How many of those 50k riders on the redline pay their fare? Do those fares cover the fixed and variable costs? Those are the questions of success or failure you should be asking.

High speed rail cost per mile estimates vary from $50-$200 million just to build. That's a conservative estimate of $22.5 billion to build the line between Houston and Dallas. If you set that money aside earning 1.75% interest, you could pay for every current Southwest passenger to fly between Houston and Dallas plus an Uber ride to and from the airport, and never touch the principal. What a boondoggle high-speed rail is.
Yes Yes Yes
And that's only for one-way traffic. They're proposing two-way traffic at double the cost. When this first came out, I figured out that you could build a brand new runway at IAH and DFW and a new terminal at each that only served Houston-Dallas traffic. Then you could buy new planes every 10 years to only run on those routes. Then you could offer FREE flights and match the proposed capacity of the rail line, and do it all off the interest on the rail cost. Absolute lunacy that the project has made it this far.
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Kenneth_2003
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10:01a, 9/23/16
AG
The rail I support is heavy passenger rail along our existing highway corridors. There was a proposal back int eh early 1980's to build passenger rail from Ft. Bend County to IAH with stops in the Galleria and Downtown. Instead TxDOT lobbied the idea down promising to cure all of our ailments with lanes and more lanes. The result is the SW Freeway expansion we saw in the mid 1980's. This of course has been followed by the continued expansion of all of the other freeways around town. Katy freeway and 290 both had existing (abandoned) freight lines removed.

Now... Think back if this had started 30 years ago. If you could take a train from somewhere near your neighborhood to downtown or other hub and from there grab a light rail train, bus, (or today Uber) to your building. Unlike Park and Ride when you (choose to) properly isolate the trains from everything else, they move safely and on time, unimpeded by most variables that affect traffic flow.
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Texan1976
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12:02p, 9/23/16
You want to fix traffic, spend money where it is congested. Between burbs and inner loops of major cities. Basically, the freeways within 50 miles of a city center.

HSR does nothing for congestion. It will get some people off of train flights. And unless you elevate it, that means crossings for traffic. So it actually causes congestion in cities.

There isn't much traffic between The Woodlands and South Dallas.

Such a boondoggle.

You want to talk about putting commuter rail between the suburbs and inner city, I might listen even as a ITL who will not benefit from it. At least that actually makes some sense.

This is a boondoggle that also gets support from people who have been to Europe a couple times and rode their trains. No way it is feasible without MASSIVE subsidies. And whatever the projected cost is, go ahead and double or triple it.
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fire09
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1:08p, 9/24/16
AG
To those suggesting flying commercial is faster, I would challenge any of you to compare door to door times. I would bet Driving is faster 90% of the time.
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Jaydoug
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In reply to fire09 • 2:04p, 9/24/16
AG
quote:
To those suggesting flying commercial is faster, I would challenge any of you to compare door to door times. I would bet Driving is faster 90% of the time.


If the drive is 5 hours or less, I drive. I think 4:30 is the break even in time considering average delays, etc but 30 more minutes in the car >>>>> airport.
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P.H. Dexippus
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In reply to fire09 • 2:07p, 9/24/16
AG
Which is faster depends on where you live and your ultimate destination. I can assure you that if hobby airport or love field is near or along your driving route, the flight would be much faster even with the waiting.
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AgLiving06
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In reply to The Wonderer • 3:01p, 9/24/16
quote:
quote:
I disagree about it being "an abject failure". I think this is something that has been parrot-ed so many times that people just believe its true.

I just looked up ridership numbers for the Redline (main street line) on Metro's website for the month of July:
2016 Daily Ridership for July - 51,333 riders
2015 Daily Ridership for July - 48,512 riders
Percentage increase - 6%

I didn't bother doing more historical trends, but the I think the idea of getting 50k cars off of main street probably makes a big difference in traffic patterns.

Also, I live in the area and see the train packed every workday. There's a myth that its empty and inhabited by homeless tent camps, and its completely untrue.

You're assuming every rider has a car and that every reported rider is a unique rider.

Agree...July 2016 had roughly 20 "work days" in it. That means on average ~2500 people per day used the rail. It only goes down further if you include weekends.
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Fitch
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7:06p, 9/24/16
AG
Clearly very few here actually make that drive with any frequency or know how clogged up traffic can get.

I've got family in Dallas I try to see more than once a quarter. I would pay for a southwest flight if it didn't involve going to the airport mess and the train option does just that.

The only way I see it not happening is if big government gets involved to throw up more regulatory hurdles than exist in the law today.

On a related note, the old "build more highways to solve traffic" philosophy is dated, flawed, and in Houston's case will lead to increased flooding downtown and along the bayous. There needs to be alternatives to one car per person on the road, period. Mass transit may be a novel concept down here, but it will be required as the southern cities double in population in the next 30 years. Better to do it now and have the infrastructure in place and expandable than go the Austin route and be gridlocked with no good way to remedy.
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Ferris Wheel Allstar
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10:52a, 9/25/16
AG
I really wish this was a real thing right now.
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BrazosDog02
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11:00a, 9/25/16
AG
I commute 50 minutes to the **** hole of houston. If I could work in Dallas and have someone else carry my ass to that **** hole in less time, that would be great for other work opportunities.
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ThunderCougarFalconBird
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In reply to Fitch • 12:58p, 9/25/16
AG
quote:
There needs to be alternatives to one car per person on the road, period. Mass transit may be a novel concept down here, but it will be required as the southern cities double in population in the next 30 years.
I agree in concept but I think that the old "plop down some fixed rail, add busses, and hope it works" solution is completely wrong for Houston. Publicly and privately owned smaller sized transit methods that can offer more bespoke service to a wider crowd would be a good idea.
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bmc13
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5:32p, 9/25/16
AG
just do it
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Lot Y Tailgate
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In reply to AgLiving06 • 11:35p, 9/25/16
AG
Not sure you understand what daily ridership means...
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HerschelwoodHardhead
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In reply to Lot Y Tailgate • 7:25p, 9/26/16
AG
Yea, those trains run full during work hours. They are standing room only and run every five minutes during rush hour, so I believe what Metro publishes. I haven't heard of any major accounting fraud scandal, so unless someone has a story to link me I'll continue to believe Metro.

And I honestly think that light rail is not the answer either. In the end, people will only switch to public transportation if it saves them time. I only think it'll work if we provide an option (rail/bus/whatever) if it's separate from grade/road traffic. However, that will cost a fortune so it'll get kicked down the road until the city is crushed with gridlock. Which is coming soon.
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HerschelwoodHardhead
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7:27p, 9/26/16
AG
Also, I'm really curious to see how much the state of Texas spends on road construction and maintenance. Does anyone know if they publish those numbers? - quick review of TxDOTs website yielded nothing.

I'd love to see a true $/mile cost of owning a car when you factor in ALL costs.
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P.H. Dexippus
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In reply to HerschelwoodHardhead • 11:37p, 9/26/16
AG
quote:
Also, I'm really curious to see how much the state of Texas spends on road construction and maintenance. Does anyone know if they publish those numbers? - quick review of TxDOTs website yielded nothing.
I'd love to see a true $/mile cost of owning a car when you factor in ALL costs.

Will trains replace cars or the need for roads? If not, how's your question relevant?
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Ferris Wheel Allstar
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9:45a, 12/6/16
AG
someone go to this and report back:

Quote:
Tradition's Lunch
12/12/2016 11:30 AM to 12/12/2016 1:00 PM

2nd Monday of each month
11:30 am - 1:00 pm
Grotto Ristorante
This week: David Hagy '86, High Speed Rail - Texas Central Partners, LLC.
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HerschelwoodHardhead
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In reply to P.H. Dexippus • 2:49p, 12/6/16
AG
Oh wow just saw this. No I'm not saying trains will replace roads permanently. But it would be good information to have when weighing the feasibility of whether a rail project makes financial sense.

I have done highway design before, and I think the general public doesn't truly understand how expensive our highway system is. Hell I don't even know, which is why I posed the question. I was hoping a educated traffic engineer on this thread might have a rough number or knowledge of where it could be found.
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Squirrel Master
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In reply to fire09 • 3:56p, 12/6/16
AG
fire09 said:
To those suggesting flying commercial is faster, I would challenge any of you to compare door to door times. I would bet Driving is faster 90% of the time.
Absolutely not true. Flying is way faster in most cases.
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FarmerJohn
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4:11p, 12/6/16
AG
Quote:
I think the general public doesn't truly understand how expensive our highway system is.
When I last looked into it, things like gas tax, car registration, and other "usage" fees constituted between 30% and 50% of the highway budget, with Texas being close to 33%, I think. (Definitely in the 30's. Delaware was the only state to break 50%. Psssh...Delaware.) So I guess if you knew how much money was raised in total on that you could get an estimate on year highway costs.

To put it another way, I seem to remember gas needing to cost around $5-$6 a gallon, basically tripling in price to fund the highways, but I'm not sure on that.
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agnerd
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In reply to HerschelwoodHardhead • 4:24p, 12/6/16
AG
HerschelwoodHardhead said:
Oh wow just saw this. No I'm not saying trains will replace roads permanently. But it would be good information to have when weighing the feasibility of whether a rail project makes financial sense.

I have done highway design before, and I think the general public doesn't truly understand how expensive our highway system is. Hell I don't even know, which is why I posed the question. I was hoping a educated traffic engineer on this thread might have a rough number or knowledge of where it could be found.
For major freeway construction, they're spending $1.8 billion on US 290 for 36 miles of freeway with 3 or 4 freeway lanes and 2-3 frontage road lanes + HOV in each direction. Averaged out, it comes to ~$3.7 million/mile/lane. (that's urban construction with having to move tons of utilities and acquire very expensive right-of-way. It's much cheaper in rural areas.

Light rail (like our toy train) averages $100 million / mile, partly because urban construction is very expensive.

Texas high speed rail people claim they can build it for $50 million / mile. Other countries have needed $130 million / mile to put track down recently.

And while we're at it:
New state of the art airport terminal w/ 11 gates costs $250 million. New International runway costs about $400 million. 737s cost $60 million each. So you could waste a bunch of money building new terminals and runways at DFW and IAH for only DFW-IAH flights and new planes to leave each airport every 30 minutes and it would cost $1.8 billion, compared to $12 billion for the high speed train, assuming they can build it as cheaply as they claim.

- edit to remove spaces
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HerschelwoodHardhead
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In reply to agnerd • 5:02p, 12/6/16
AG
Nice, good information to know.

Do you happen to have stats on yearly maintenance costs for freeways vs the light rail in Houston?

My first instinct is that the rail would be more expensive on a per mile basis, but I'm not positive about that. I do know that concrete roads in this city do perform poorly due to our native soil types.

I'm hoping that the dedicated bus lanes on Post Oak are a success, as I see that as being a much more cost effective solution to the mass transit problem this city will face.
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CDUB98
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5:26p, 12/6/16
AG
I wish they would lime the ever living hell out of the soil about ten feet deep before pouring a 2 foot thick slab of concrete.

Pipe dream. Overkill. Don't care. Houston roads suck giant, hairy moose balls.
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Punked Shank
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In reply to Squirrel Master • 7:06a, 12/7/16
AG
Squirrel Master said:
fire09 said:
To those suggesting flying commercial is faster, I would challenge any of you to compare door to door times. I would bet Driving is faster 90% of the time.
Absolutely not true. Flying is way faster in most cases.


Distance matters. And a Hou-Dallas flight, door to door driving is probably best every time unless youre on business trip and need to work between.

Depending where you live, you need an hour to get to the airport. An hour for security and idle time waiting to board. 30 minutes to board. An hour flight. 30 minutes to land taxi gate unload. 15 minutes to get luggage.

About 4 hours and 15 minutes. Then another 15 to get a rental.

By that time you might as well have driven, beat your flight, and have your own vehicle.
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