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***Tropical system likely to impact the TX coast early this week.***

Dangerous amounts of rainfall expected leading to potentially widespread and significant flooding.

Discussion:
Air mass is moist and tropical this morning with PWS of 2.17 inches recorded at Lake Charles and radar show numerous showers and thunderstorms progressing inland off the Gulf of Mexico. Concentration of heavy rainfall is aimed at the areas north of Victoria to SE of Austin where training bands are in progress. Will have to keep a close eye on this as the radar suggest training bands attempting to setup over our western counties. Rainfall rates in this air mass will be 2-3 inches per hour and can quickly lead to flooding especially in urban areas.

91L:
System remains rather disorganized this morning as the sharp surface trough or elongated area of low pressure continues to interact with an upper level trough to its west. This upper trough is forecast to weaken and drift southwest while high pressure builds over the SE US. This will slowly result in more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation over the western Gulf of Mexico tonight-Tuesday.

Track:
91L will track generally NW toward the TX coast and this is support by all model guidance which are actually fairly tightly clustered with a landfall along the middle/upper TX coast on Tuesday. The exact track will be determined by the building ridge of high pressure over the SE US. It is interesting to note that a couple respectable models do slow and briefly stall the system near landfall on Tuesday, but at this time this appears to be an outlier solution.

Intensity:
There has been little change in the intensity guidance overnight with generally most models showing a weak tropical storm near landfall. Upper level conditions will gradually become more favorable for development as the system moves into the NW Gulf and upper level shear weakens. This does not appear to be a situation where rapid intensification is favored.

Impacts:
Main impact with be rainfall and potentially very significant amounts of rainfall. Potential is increasing for a dangerous flash flood event associated with the landfall of this system.

Rainfall:
Forecast models are in general agreement with excessive rainfall and an extremely moist air mass moving into the area Monday afternoon and evening as the northern feeder bands/rain shield approach the coast. PWS increase to 2.4-2.6 inches which is +2SD above normal and near record values for June. TS Allison values were near 2.4 inchesso this air mass will be very much capable of some really big rainfall totals. Training of feeder bands is worrying with SE TX likely falling on the eastern side of the circulation center. Hourly rainfall rates of 3-6 inches will be possible which will quickly lead to flash flooding.

WPC has already placed SE TX in a slight risk for heavy rainfall and this will likely be increased to a moderate or even high risk. Flash flood watches will be required.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 6-8 inches with isolated totals of 10-15 inches is the current thinking. Should the system slow or a period of sustained cell training developtotals could easily top 20 inches.

This is a potentially very serious flash flood threat and areas that do not normally flood could flood which this type of rainfall.

Tides:
Tides are running .5-1.0 ft above normal this morning. Current water levels are running 2.0-2.4 ft total water along Bolivar and 2.2-2.6 ft total water level in Galveston Bay. Critical elevations are around 4.0 ft along the Gulf beaches and 4.0-5.0 ft in the bay. Increasing E to ESE winds will likely result in additional tidal and wave pile up along the upper TX coast. Will need to keep a close watch on tides as they could get into coastal flood warning criteria or around 4.0 ft above normal late Monday into Tuesday which would result in overwash of the western end of Galveston Island and Bolivar.

Winds:
Will not go much higher than 40-45mph across the coastal waters although stronger winds are possible in heavy thunderstorms and feeder bands. Worst of the weather will likely be removed to the east side of the center of circulation or across the SE TX waters into SW LA. Tropical storm force winds are possible if not likely across much of the coastal waters late Monday into Tuesday and across the coastal beaches and inland bays early Tuesday. Inland winds of 25-35mph can be expected.

Tornadoes:
The current forecast track place the center inland along the mid or upper TX coast between Corpus Christi and Galveston Bay. This places much of SE TX within the right front quaderant of the system which is most favorable for weak tornado production. Tornadoes tend to be most likely in the feeder bands and this will be possible with this system. Tornado threat will be increasing late Monday and last much of the day on Tuesday as bands move inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Such tornadoes tend to be weakbut can still cause damage.

Actions:
Residents along the middle and upper TX coast into SW LA should be preparing for the landfall of a tropical storm within the next 72 hours.with the main emphasis being on flooding.

Keep up to date on the latest weather forecasts as significant forecast changes will be possible over the next 48 hours.

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There have been no significant changes today with respect to the forecast track and intensity for 91L.

USAF aircraft is currently in the system doing their investigation and will await official word from NHCdon't think we
will see an upgrade this evening based on organization, but chances for
development do increase on Monday as shear relaxes.

Main threat remains significant rainfall amounts with widespread totals of 6-8 inches and isolated totals of 10-15
inches. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause significant flooding over
the region.

There has been no significant changes with respect to the tidal levelsbut will have to watch closely as it appears we will
be near the 4.0 ft critical flood levels along the Gulf beaches and in
the inland bays.

Expect onset of adverse conditions along the mid and upper coast late Monday afternoon into the evening hours.

Will attempt to keep some continuity to updates over the next 24 hours and will shoot for a AM and PM updates, but
things will be busy and rapidly increasing Monday evening so the updates will be short and to the point.

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Ok so are ****d?!

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Just took this pic on I45 North. Hope none of yall are caught in this mess.

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The OP is really driving his weather schtick into the ground.

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