B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

829,905 Views | 5641 Replies | Last: 21 hrs ago by MiMi
LSCSN
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That's code for they have no idea what the real numbers are
cavscout96
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Whoever wrote that should be fired. It, literally, said NOTHING useful to the reader.

It's almost as if they were intentionally trying to obfuscate the issue.

Now that we see a clear trend that obviously demonstrates a significantly reduced threat, let's change the reporting metric to be more volatile?

Talk about moving the goalposts. Better bring your football bat and ice skates to the baseketball rink.
cavscout96
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DP
dubi
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Quote:

It's almost as if they were intentionally trying to obfuscate the issue.
Bingo.
Loaded
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I still don't understand why positivity rate means anything. The number of tests and contact tracing can greatly affect the calculation. A low number of tests targeted to exposed individuals via contact tracing will produce a much higher positivity rate than lots of tests administered randomly. The positivity rate tells you nothing about the actual (estimated) number of cases in the community.
cavscout96
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Quote:

He says the new method will cause the positivity rate will be more volatile than before, but he says that's a good thing because it will more accurately reflect the current status of COVID-19 in our community.
but it won't. for the exact reasons you've stated.
MiMi
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S
Today's numbers: 53 confirmed cases, 20 probable cases, 2,085 tests, 0 deaths
Houston2AngeloAg
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When did classes start at A&M?
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
halibut sinclair
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Houston2AngeloAg said:

When did classes start at A&M?
August 19?
trouble
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More than 2 weeks ago
BQ_90
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trouble said:

More than 2 weeks ago
isn't the question is this good or bad news.
src94
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I will add actual in-person attendance is very low. Most still opting for remote learning.
src94
nthomas99
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trouble said:

More than 2 weeks ago

Give it two more weeks from now and it'll be out of control!
nthomas99
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nthomas99 said:

trouble said:

More than 2 weeks ago

Give it two more weeks from now and it'll be out of control!

In all seriousness, what is going on? Has the virus mutated to be less severe or transmissible?

I'm far from doom and gloom, but I certainly expected to see an uptick in the real spread of the virus with all the college students back and many of our children back in school in person. Instead hospitalizations continue to decline to a level BHCD doesn't even think it's worth mentioning, deaths are flat to declining, and more and more people I know are getting it but with very mild symptoms.

How many more days do we need basically non-event updates before we start trying to relax restrictions and see what happens?
tb9665
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Has anyone thought about why students do not need to come back after Thanksgiving? To help keep cases down?
jeffk
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Yes, it was supposed to prevent them from all bringing home anything they picked up from visiting with family over the holiday.

EDIT - I live here in BCS, so "home" was my home, sorry.
trouble
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We are having a huge uptick in cases. We just aren't seeing the (predicted by those in charge) increase in hospitalizations and deaths.
trouble
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tb9665 said:

Has anyone thought about why students do not need to come back after Thanksgiving? To help keep cases down?


And so dorms and classrooms can be deep cleaned before the spring semester
nthomas99
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trouble said:

We are having a huge uptick in cases. We just aren't seeing the (predicted by those in charge) increase in hospitalizations and deaths.
Yes and no. It's really hard to tell. I know it's hard to interpret positivity rate with such little context (as discussed above), but the case increases heavily correlate with a corresponding uptick in tests. That's why I asked about real spread (whatever that is).

I guess I expected to see some noticeable but not large uptick in hospitalizations / serious cases outside the 18-25 range, as the "boundary" of the college population interacted with the rest of community. But nope.
Rapier108
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nthomas99 said:

nthomas99 said:

trouble said:

More than 2 weeks ago

Give it two more weeks from now and it'll be out of control!

In all seriousness, what is going on? Has the virus mutated to be less severe or transmissible?

I'm the far from doom and gloom, but I certainly expected to see a real uptick in the real spread of the virus with all the college students back and many of our children back in school in person. Instead hospitalizations continue to decline to a level BHCD doesn't even think it's worth mentioning, deaths are flat to declining, and more and more people I know are getting it but with very mild symptoms.

How many more days do we need basically non-event updates before we start trying to relax restrictions and see what happens?
I'm going to pop in for a minute.

The nature of viruses like this is to weaken over time. Strains which kill quickly are not able to spread nearly as much and eventually burn out. The mutations which spread more easily, but are milder are the ones which eventually become endemic. Heck, the descendants of the 1918/1919 "Spanish" Flu are still around to this day but mutated into strains which are still strong enough to sicken people, but kill no more than any other common flu strain does. It was predicted early on that the virus would eventually weaken; the only question was how long would it take.

There is a good chance a lot of students already had it months ago and either never had symptoms, or only mild ones. We can also assume that there are more cases in the student population which will never be found because they will never show a single symptom and thus not get tested. Even when the virus was running amok, it was not killing or hospitalizing people under 30 except for those with preexisting conditions which made them highly susceptible to the virus. And yes, there were likely a few exceptions, but there are always the strange cases which puzzles medical experts.

On that note, the number of calls on Broadcastify for virus or potential virus cases is way, way down. Back in June and July it could be a call every 15-30 minutes. Now, most days I hear maybe 1-2 potential cases (person is sick and might have it so medics take the standard precautions) and in the last two weeks, only a single dispatch where the person actually had a confirmed case of it. Very few calls that could be coronavirus have been for people under 30 and none that I've heard ever went to the hospital. The most common call for people under 30 is for ODs, usually on alcohol.

Okay, back to lurk mode.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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We're finding a decent number of asymptomatic cases through the random testing on campus.
Rapier108
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trouble said:

We're finding a decent number of asymptomatic cases through the random testing on campus.
True, but it would require testing everyone at once to see how many there really are.

It would be interesting to see how many cases per day are from tests due to contract tracing, and how many from random testing.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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I'd love to know that but, well, you know.
nthomas99
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src94 said:

I will add actual in-person attendance is very low. Most still opting for remote learning.

Yep. Some engineering classes with 80-90 students are averaging 2-5 students per lecture.
trouble
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src94 said:

I will add actual in-person attendance is very low. Most still opting for remote learning.


But a good many are doing remote learning locally. They are in town, they just aren't going to campus. They are getting together with friends and going out into the community. And we still aren't seeing horrible numbers.
histag10
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Exactly. My little brother tried to do all one way or the other, and wasnt given the option. He has like 2 on campus classes and 3 remote classes. He said a lot of the classes were only offered one way or another, and as a senior he really didnt have much of a choice.
Inca
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I thought all in person classes had a remote option. I would think labs would be the exception.

My husband's class is in person but he also has to offer online. Started out a 50/50 split but yesterday he mentioned more have moved online.
lockett93
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Region N hospitals at 11 Covid patients.


Spreadsheet updated

Https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q

Charts tab auto updates

histag10
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No idea. Brother said he had no option for many of his classes, particularly in major senior classes.
Tailgate88
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trouble said:

tb9665 said:

Has anyone thought about why students do not need to come back after Thanksgiving? To help keep cases down?


And so dorms and classrooms can be deep cleaned before the spring semester
Are we talking deep cleaning to prevent the Corona virus from living through the holiday break and infecting someone who moves back in for Spring semester? Because...

Quote:

How Long Does the Coronavirus Live on Surfaces?

The coronavirus can live for hours to days on surfaces like countertops and doorknobs. How long it survives depends on the material the surface is made from.

Here's a guide to how long coronaviruses -- the family of viruses that includes the one that causes COVID-19 -- can live on some of the surfaces you probably touch every day.

Keep in mind that researchers still have a lot to learn about the new coronavirus. But you're probably more likely to catch it from being around someone who has it than from touching a contaminated surface.

Different Kinds of Surfaces

Metal
Examples: doorknobs, jewelry, silverware
5 days

Wood
Examples: furniture, decking
4 days

Plastics
Examples: milk containers and detergent bottles, subway and bus seats, backpacks, elevator buttons
2 to 3 days

Stainless steel
Examples: refrigerators, pots and pans, sinks, some water bottles
2 to 3 days

Cardboard
Examples: shipping boxes
24 hours

Copper
Examples: pennies, teakettles, cookware
4 hours

Aluminum
Examples: soda cans, tinfoil, water bottles
2 to 8 hours

Glass
Examples: drinking glasses, measuring cups, mirrors, windows
Up to 5 days

Ceramics
Examples: dishes, pottery, mugs
5 days


https://www.webmd.com/lung/how-long-covid-19-lives-on-surfaces
Esteban du Plantier
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histag10 said:

No idea. Brother said he had no option for many of his classes, particularly in major senior classes.


A professor friend of mine mentioned that students had to have something in person, presumably to keep them living/spending money in college station.

Could be bull****, but she's department head, so I doubt she's totally ignorant.
isitjustme
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Esteban du Plantier said:

histag10 said:

No idea. Brother said he had no option for many of his classes, particularly in major senior classes.


A professor friend of mine mentioned that students had to have something in person, presumably to keep them living/spending money in college station.

Could be bull****, but she's department head, so I doubt she's totally ignorant.
No, not totally ignorant. They don't get totally ignorant until they get into the Dean's office or higher.
trouble
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Look, I agree but that's what they're gonna do.
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Oogway
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trouble said:

src94 said:

I will add actual in-person attendance is very low. Most still opting for remote learning.


But a good many are doing remote learning locally. They are in town, they just aren't going to campus. They are getting together with friends and going out into the community. And we still aren't seeing horrible numbers.
I'm pretty happy about that (the lower numbers). Even if some students are still getting together, the spread has been slow, nothing is overwhelmed and for the most part I've noticed when I am out at various places, folks of all ages are wearing masks and not getting too close to others. That slow spread is awesome because we have football coming up and being outdoors, football shouldn't present an issue either. Whoop!
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